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Russia/Ukraine conflict

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Starlink doesn’t work in Russia so that’s not the issue. I think the issue is that Ukraine is building drone ships, maybe with goal of taking out the Kerch Strait Bridge. I wouldn’t characterize destroying infrastructure in your own country as offense though.
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Note starlink antenna on the back.
We probably never will know all of the details on what raised the alarm. We don't know the full technical capabilities and limitations of the system, so we can't say for certain that it doesn't work in certain parts of Russia. But yes, that's an example of the imaginative Ukrainians integrating it into all sorts of weapons, well beyond the scope of what was originally intended.
 
Putin Orders Mercenary Boss To Withdraw Troops From Ukraine Over Fears They Are 'Becoming Too Powerful & Pose A Threat' To Russian Leader

Anyone know how accurate radaronline.com is? This seems an odd time to be pulling forces off the front lines even if they are mercenaries. But then Putin has shown paranoid tendencies so reality may not be at play here.

The article originally appeared in the Daily Mail
Putin pulls Russia's Wagner Group troops from Ukraine

It may be true. Putin may have plans to pull back Wagner and then federalize them into the regular army.
 
The article originally appeared in the Daily Mail
Putin pulls Russia's Wagner Group troops from Ukraine

It may be true. Putin may have plans to pull back Wagner and then federalize them into the regular army.
OK so now it´s getting serious.

That will never, ever happen, before this will materialize, we will have an inner Army fight.
Those who deemed themselves "the frontline elite"and call the other clowns will refuse to budge,
yet at the same time the old "veterans" see these "young guys" as arch enemies with a bias and no expertise.
Fire and water.
Good.
It´s beginning to erode and sending shockwaves back to Kremlinbunker.
 
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from Guardian reporting

"Ukraine’s allies have said it is unlikely they will be able to supply the number of tanks they previously promised. After a meeting in Brussels of western defence ministers, the German defence minister, Boris Pistorius, said they would not be able reach the size of a battalion. A standard Ukrainian tank battalion comprises 31 tanks. Poland had offered to give 30 German-made tanks but many of them are in poor condition and need repairs before they can be deployed, said Pistorius, whose government had pledged 14. Portugal has promised an additional three tanks."

I think they are really discussing the numbers of the Leopards. So it looks like those 14+ British Challengers and approx 30 US Abrams are going to be significant in the overall count of Western tanks. However it seems that there will be further Leopards flowing as fast as they can be rebuilt.
 
Good graphic comparing Ru's losses to previous modern wars:


Good analysis. The Russians are suffering an unsustainable loss rate. 0.144% appears low, but that gets the entire army killed in 2 years and they're 1 year in now.

My partner saw a thing yesterday that said 97% of the entire Russian army is either in Ukraine or poised to enter Ukraine right now.
 
The losses were about 1/2 those at present for the first 8+ months of the war.

The uncertain parameter not discussed here are the soldiers removed from the battle field due to injury.

Many of those wounded or injured will not be able to return. I saw that cold injuries are way up too. On par with what the US Army experienced in western Europe in the winter of 1944-45. Many of those will not return.

The Russian losses in the first 8 months were lower per day, but they had a smaller force committed. The now have more troops committed and are suffering higher losses. The loss rate per day may be about the same.

If they have 97% of the army committed to this, that leaves nobody for other activities like training, garrisoning outposts, etc. They are gutting their military trying to maintain the force in Ukraine. Like the analogy I made a few months back. It's like trying to run with a torn knee tendon. You can do it for a bit, it's going to hurt like hell, and it's going to make the damage a lot worse.

They are doing generational damage to their army.
 
You are absolutely delusional. Literally nothing you have predicted has come to fruition, and Russia is tearing through defenses in the east right now. Ukraine will pull out of Bakmhut in the next week and you will champion this as a strategic move 🙄

Tearing through defenses? The Russians may very well take Bakmhut, but it will be an EPICLY costly win for them. Something that they were supposed to conquer, by all accounts, 6 months ago. A win of a town with little to no strategic value after the Russians lost thousands of square kilometers north of there in the fall, making the pincer movement that Bakmhut was key to, pointless.

Who's delusional now?
 
I learned a lot from this interview with Anne Applebaum, for example the political difficulties in Poland and the strong anti-German feelings there. She stresses the point that the war will only be over when Ukraine wins. As I said previously: the military conflict will end when Russia re-aligns its reality and not before.


There's a previous interview with Francis Fukuyama that was also interesting. Applebaum and Fukuyama make many of the same points. They seem to have similar world views. They both provide perspective on why it's vital we continue to support Ukraine.
 
@avoigt was being uncharacteristically hot-headed on this and he may have walked it back in a subsequent tweet. It may be that his background is not in the aerospace industry, so he jumped to conclusions.

In any event, we need to read between the lines and accept that we may never know the whole story.

Shotwell made a carefully worded legal statement. Fact is, if Starlink is integrated into something that is a close cousin to a cruise missile without the cover of doing the Pentagon's direct bidding, that sets off all sorts of legal alarm bells in the United States and internationally. SpaceX is a US company, so has to abide by US laws and treaties. At times, these laws and treaties can be draconian and nonsensical. Starlink kit is good and plentiful and can readily be integrated into all sorts of weapons. So SpaceX needs to be careful with its actions.

Musk made a moral statement, in that integrating Starlink into unspecified offensive weaponry could lead to escalation. For instance, if Starlink kit is found on a drone that hit an airfield deep within Russia that is part of its nuclear forces, things could get ugly really fast. The Pentagon would be even more cautious in the weapons it gives to Ukraine because of these considerations. Altogether, Musk has been extraordinarily permissive.

Neither made a practical argument, such as we have to turn off certain cells in order that Russia can't use the system, even though some Ukrainian troops may find themselves in a dead cell from time to time. But those are background issues.
There is no need to walk back on my statement because they are still true today.

In the meantime, Ukraine Army has confirmed that Starlink continues to work well at the frontline for all intended purposes. No cells have been deactivated. It's great to see that SpaceX despite the comment from Shotwell continuously supports Ukraine in their justified defensive fight against the aggressor Russia
 
There is no need to walk back on my statement because they are still true today.

In the meantime, Ukraine Army has confirmed that Starlink continues to work well at the frontline for all intended purposes. No cells have been deactivated. It's great to see that SpaceX despite the comment from Shotwell continuously supports Ukraine in their justified defensive fight against the aggressor Russia
I think the tone of your original Tweet was regrettable and misled a lot of people.
 
Many of those wounded or injured will not be able to return. I saw that cold injuries are way up too. On par with what the US Army experienced in western Europe in the winter of 1944-45. Many of those will not return.

The Russian losses in the first 8 months were lower per day, but they had a smaller force committed. The now have more troops committed and are suffering higher losses. The loss rate per day may be about the same.

If they have 97% of the army committed to this, that leaves nobody for other activities like training, garrisoning outposts, etc. They are gutting their military trying to maintain the force in Ukraine. Like the analogy I made a few months back. It's like trying to run with a torn knee tendon. You can do it for a bit, it's going to hurt like hell, and it's going to make the damage a lot worse.

They are doing generational damage to their army.

I am actually quite dissapointed by Georgia. This would be an ideal time to kick the Russians out of the occupied territories. I know their current government seems to be installed/bought out by Russia, but would not be surprised if a kind of uprising a la Maidan is brewing....