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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
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SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
Oh gee... You don't say!...
Here's what I think:
I think that you personally don't want to send Western Fighters to Ukraine because you are afraid that would escalate things to the flying nukes stage.
So therefore you post these TL;DR novels trying to convince everyone else in this thread.
Well... I for one Disagree.
I'm with Lieutenant Colonel (ret.) Dan Hampton, Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian Air Force.
SEND the JETS I say!
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BitJam
Active Member
If the article I linked to is correct then Russia's fossil revenues have been cut almost in half in Q1 2023 compared to Q1 2022. If that's gross revenue then their profit has been cut even more since the cost of production is far from zero. Reuters says it's $44/barrel.
Sure, I agree with this. But it will be interesting to see what happens with the Russian economy going forward:
- Will Russia run out of foreign currency reserves?
- Will the budget deficit blow past the legal limit?
- Will fossil fuel revenues stay low?
- Will the ruble continue to fall?
It's not gender so much as height that factors into g tolerance. The average female is shorter than the average male, so that probably explains any discrepancy. This study found no significant difference in g tolerance between men and women:
Women's G tolerance - PubMed
G tolerances of 102 women and 139 men subjected to Standard Medical Evaluation (Medeval) G Profiles were compared. Unpaired t-tests revealed no significant difference between the women and men in either relaxed or straining G tolerance. Covariance analysis controlling for differences in...pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
I guess I had old data.
I think you are misreading me. I have said that I thought the west had held back on delivering aircraft to Ukraine because of some other pressures. It has come out that the Chinese threatened to give Russia more help if the Poles were allowed to transfer the Mig-29s to Ukraine.
My personal opinion about the risk is pretty much neutral. Sending western jets may or may not escalate, I'm not sure. As for their usefulness, having more and better jets wouldn't hurt. Having western aircraft would open up the NATO weapons tree to Ukraine which is helpful.
My point is that Russia has a huge fleet of air defense systems, most of which are still intact and they have MiGs with longer range AA missiles that outreach everything the west has. These fighters stay out of range of all assets Ukraine has or will likely to get.
Ukraine is not going to get air superiority over Russia. The west can't give them enough aircraft to do that.
Western aircraft will help, but it's not going to be a revolutionary change.
You mean the former US Army officer who has appeared on Russia Today and has been an outspoken pro-Russian voice throughout this war? He is also an outspoken anti-Semite, anti-NATO, and basically an advocate for many right wing talking points.
He wears his political agenda very prominently on his sleeve and is hardly a credible source.
lolachampcar
Well-Known Member
I can confirm tall skinny people fall asleep way faster. Most of our instructors are ex military and have low centers of gravity. They just laugh at me when I take my naps.It's not gender so much as height that factors into g tolerance. The average female is shorter than the average male, so that probably explains any discrepancy. This study found no significant difference in g tolerance between men and women:
Women's G tolerance - PubMed
G tolerances of 102 women and 139 men subjected to Standard Medical Evaluation (Medeval) G Profiles were compared. Unpaired t-tests revealed no significant difference between the women and men in either relaxed or straining G tolerance. Covariance analysis controlling for differences in...
petit_bateau
Active Member
Sanctions do work, as anyone trying to catch a plane in Russia will be very aware
wavellroom.com
Aeroflot to cut half its fleet as sanctions bite
Western sanctions have had a major impact on Russia's airline industry. But what has the impact been? And can Russia recover?
wavellroom.com
X Fan
Active Member
Absolutely embarrassing for Biden and the “intelligence” community that a 21-year old National Guard airman is probably the person behind the leaks:
www.nytimes.com
Ukraine Leaks: Air National Guardsman Arrested as F.B.I. Searches His Home
Federal officials are investigating leaks of classified U.S. intelligence revealing government secrets about the Ukraine war. Attorney General Merrick Garland announced the airman’s arrest in connection with the unauthorized removal and transmission of classified information.
Thanks for the link. Your intro referencing Biden is embarrassing.Absolutely embarrassing for Biden and the “intelligence” community that a 21-year old National Guard airman is probably the person behind the leaks:
Ukraine Leaks: Air National Guardsman Arrested as F.B.I. Searches His Home
Federal officials are investigating leaks of classified U.S. intelligence revealing government secrets about the Ukraine war. Attorney General Merrick Garland announced the airman’s arrest in connection with the unauthorized removal and transmission of classified information.
Here is another link https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/04/13/suspect-pentagon-documents-leak/
"Teixeira served in a junior position, but he had access to an internal Defense Department computer network for top-secret information, called the Joint Worldwide Intelligence Communications System, according to a U.S. official familiar with the matter. That access would have allowed him the ability to read and potentially to print documents classified at the same level as many of the leaked files."
Doggydogworld
Active Member
Embarrassing to the military. The intelligence community has long decried the military's lax handling of classified info.Absolutely embarrassing for Biden and the “intelligence” community that a 21-year old National Guard airman is probably the person behind the leaks:
Ukraine Leaks: Air National Guardsman Arrested as F.B.I. Searches His Home
Federal officials are investigating leaks of classified U.S. intelligence revealing government secrets about the Ukraine war. Attorney General Merrick Garland announced the airman’s arrest in connection with the unauthorized removal and transmission of classified information.
Sorry, posted the wrong link. Here is Lt. Col. Macgregor on Ukraine:
Absolutely embarrassing for Biden and the “intelligence” community that a 21-year old National Guard airman is probably the person behind the leaks:
Ukraine Leaks: Air National Guardsman Arrested as F.B.I. Searches His Home
Federal officials are investigating leaks of classified U.S. intelligence revealing government secrets about the Ukraine war. Attorney General Merrick Garland announced the airman’s arrest in connection with the unauthorized removal and transmission of classified information.
I don't know if it's really much of an embarrassment for Biden personally. The standards for handling of classified and sensitive material is mostly set by the civil service with a few laws passed by Congress (all before the current administration).
We have seen problems that have come to light recently with Trump having possession of highly classified material and then some papers were found in Biden's documents. If a search was done of every past government official who has handled classified material, we would probably find quite a few of them have documents in their possession they shouldn't.
The US has some problems with the handling of classified material in many places. This is just another example.
Back to the war, the Squirrel Hole guy has worked out his audio problems and has some decent audio now. He did a video sort of sandboxing what the start of the Ukrainian offensive will likely look like
The Russians are expecting the Ukrainians to make their move towards Melitopol. I don't know what sort of traffic the secondary roads around Melitopol can handle, but the smart move would be to breach the first line of defense, then instead of going straight for the second line, move parallel to the line for several miles until the defenses are thin or non-existent, then smash through that line, bypass Melitopol and go right for Crimea. It would send the entire Russian army into panic and if Ukraine were able to get into Crimea and seal off all the connection points with the mainland, a large portion of the Russian army would be trapped in the South with no way out.
The Ukrainians have about 18 of their most elite, highly mobile brigades (organized into three corps) that will have western tanks and other western vehicles. There are another 88 brigades on top of those 18 that are not committed right now that are not as well equipped, but with such a large number of second line forces, they can move a lot to troops into the newly captured areas to hold the flanks of the assault from counter attack.
Some of those 88 will be held back for defense in case Russia tries to open another front as a distraction, but they could safely commit around 60 of these secondary brigades to support the assault. That might be enough to hold a corridor to Crimea.
I would commit one corps to the breakthrough, then one corps to the exploitation with the slower moving, less well equipped brigades following. Hold back one corps in reserve and see how the Russians react. If the Russians react by shifting a lot of forces from the Donbas, commit the reserve corps and reserve secondary brigades to the Kremina area and push into Luhansk from the north. If the Kremina line breaks for the Russians, there is very little to stop the Ukrainians from rolling up Luhansk.
Russia has weakened their army so much over the winter that they don't have enough troops to man all the defenses they have built. And unmanned defenses are little more than a speed bump to a decent attacking army.
Um, no
Yes, embarrassing to the military. The young leaker was apparently within a fringe right element of the military, possibly in the Macgregor mold. He is reportedly sympathetic to anti government movements like David Koresh's Waco cult and the Ruby Ridge militia. He'd better scoot off quickly to somewhere without an extradition treaty with the US if he doesn't want to serve a long prison sentence.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
I've seen how this will play out. The family (and lawyer) talk to the media and tell how their boy is not a right-wing traitor, just a confused patriot with mental health issues.
I'm most interested in how such a wide-ranging gamut of intelligence ends up in the National Guard.
I'm quite curious how such highly sensitive and classified intel remained encapsulated in a gamer discord forum for so long before getting wider recognition.
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
From what I am reading, he was trying to win an internet argument. There have been a bunch of military leaks (although not nearly at this scale) that happened in this manner (mostly related to War Thunder).
Oops, War Thunder Gamers Accidentally Leaked Sensitive F-16 Secrets Online
This isn’t the first time they’ve shared classified data to win internet battles.
www.popularmechanics.com
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
From what I am reading, he started out only paraphrasing information, but people didn't believe him because he was just some random guy on the internet (similar to other leaks from internet sources). He then moved on to pictures of printouts of the reports. Probably it took a while before people took him seriously and shared that info outside of the group.
He's what? 21? Unbelievable that he got away with this for so long.
Reminds me of a friend I had who went into the Air Force out of high school for several years in the 60's. He did a tour of Vietnam, but mostly what he talked about was how at 21 he was the crew chief loading nukes onto B52s here at a base in the US. He said it amazed him that he was the old guy on the crew and he made sure every kid (literally kids) knew that what they were doing required strict following of all rules or the results could be catastrophic. Seems some can handle the trust at that age and some like this leaker guy couldn't.
Lt General Ben Hodges (Ret): 'Ukraine will liberate Crimea by the end of August IF we provide Ukraine long range precision weapons they need to do that'
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