Russia/Ukraine conflict

[wdolson]

Being a smart ass I can verify that no one likes us. That officer may not have been making fun, many are naturalized themselves. I've seen immigration officers from Russia, China, Korea, Philippines, Mexico, Germany and others. Some have an English speaking level that is less than some applicants.
Depending on when a test was taken the officer may have had control but now the reading, writing and civics are randomly generated. Spoken English is tested by the applicants ability to understand the application that was filed and confirm its contents. Exp, "read" where does the president live? "Write" the president lives in the white house. Civics, ten questions, 60% is a pass. Get the first six, you're done.

The US is one of the easiest countries in which to obtain citizenship (other than a few where it can be purchased)

This was in the mid-1980s. I think my friend said the tester was a white woman who was born in the US. Taking the steps to become a citizen are relatively easy, but being allowed to stay in the country in the first place can be a pain. I've known a lot of people who went through a lot of pain getting into the country and getting their green card.

Tractor adapted with remote control for mine clearing

Ukraine is a country of barnyard mechanics. It's one of the things that has helped them adapt to battlefield conditions and succeed in the war.

 

[jabloomf1230]

I'm going to present an alternative response to Putin's use of nukes in Ukraine. China might actually do more than either just complain or send arms to Ukraine. They might attempt a limited military response with the intent of bringing down Putin.

 

[wdolson]

I'm going to present an alternative response to Putin's use of nukes in Ukraine. China might actually do more than either just complain or send arms to Ukraine. They might attempt a limited military response with the intent of bringing down Putin.

China isn't in the greatest position for a military response that would have much effect. The Russia/China border is pretty remote from Moscow and China doesn't have the ability to project power into western Russia like the US can.

Invading Russia in the east could backfire and rally Russia around Putin rather than bring him down.

China could still do a lot of damage by economically shunning Russia. Russia is very dependent on China now that the west has cut them off. Russia needs China for many raw materials as well as finished goods. Russia won't starve if cut off, they produce more food than they need, and they are energy independent, but their manufacturing sector is relatively weak and their chemistry industry is especially weak except for petrochemicals.

 

[Alset Srotom]

This forum one week ago: "Zelensky is so smart. By targeting drone strikes deep into Russian territory he is forcing Russia to pull AD units from the front lines."

This forum this week: "Obviously the drone strike deep into Russian territory is a false flag event, why would Ukraine do that?"

You lot are insufferable.

 

[wdolson]

This forum one week ago: "Zelensky is so smart. By targeting drone strikes deep into Russian territory he is forcing Russia to pull AD units from the front lines."

This forum this week: "Obviously the drone strike deep into Russian territory is a false flag event, why would Ukraine do that?"

You lot are insufferable.

The actual drones Ukraine is sending deep into Russian territory are aimed at targets of military importance like aircraft and fuel facilities. Targeting a flagpole in Moscow has zero military significance.

 

[bo3bdar]

Institute for the Study of War

Russia accused Ukraine of conducting a drone strike against the Kremlin on May 3. Social media footage circulated on May 3 shows a drone detonating near a flagpole on top of the Kremlin Senate Palace building in Moscow as two unidentified people climbed

understandingwar.org

So the real experts believe the attack was staged for domestic consumption in Russia to being home war and the need for further mobilization. More mobilization will hit Moscow and Saint Peter so maybe this is what it is about.

Frankly it makes more sense than a false flag - it was just to silly to be a real false flag attack.

I agree with that. The most likely reason is to drum up domestic support. Aligns better with the mid-Feb putting in AA as a way to encourage support and fear of invasion in the populace.

The only reason false-flag seemed plausible was the comments about nukes being loaded on planes at the same time.

Still, a good example of Putin's ability to push the narrative. Using longer term planning and better than internet attention spans.

 

[stopcrazypp]

This forum one week ago: "Zelensky is so smart. By targeting drone strikes deep into Russian territory he is forcing Russia to pull AD units from the front lines."

This forum this week: "Obviously the drone strike deep into Russian territory is a false flag event, why would Ukraine do that?"

You lot are insufferable.

Can you construct a strawman that is any more flawed?

Who called specifically Zelensky smart for drone strikes? And recent Ukranian drone strikes either stuck places that are part of Ukraine but occupied by Russia (like in Crimea) or near the border (like Bryansk which is about 50 miles away and Ukraine confirmed responsibility, Kursk about 50 miles) and are of military significance (like air fields, oil facilities, ammo depots, etc).

Moscow is instead about 300 miles from the border and it makes little sense to send a drone that far to just strike a flagpole, not to mention the video footage is suspect (it just so happened multiple people were recording that flag pole at 2am and they had little to no reaction?).

 

[wdolson]

Can you construct a strawman that is any more flawed?

Who called specifically Zelensky smart for drone strikes? And recent Ukranian drone strikes either stuck places that are part of Ukraine but occupied by Russia (like in Crimea) or near the border (like Bryansk which is about 50 miles away and Ukraine confirmed responsibility, Kursk about 50 miles) and are of military significance (like air fields, oil facilities, ammo depots, etc).

Moscow is instead about 300 miles from the border and it makes little sense to send a drone that far to just strike a flagpole, not to mention the video footage is suspect (it just so happened multiple people were recording that flag pole at 2am and they had little to no reaction?).

Russia's false flag operation was so blatantly staged it's about as believable as a 4 year old with chocolate all over their face denying that they got into the chocolate.

The Russians claim it was an assassination attempt, the drone wasn't even flying near the Kremlin Palace which is supposed to be Putin's residence (though he rarely stays there). The drone hit the flagpole on the roof of the Kremlin Senate building. The quality of the footage is pretty darn good for CCTV.

I have seen speculation that it was Pergozin or some other Russian trying to create a Gulf of Tonkin Incident to get Russians behind the war.

This sort of attack doesn't fit Ukraine's MO. They have always attacked military targets and they know Russian Psychology well. They are not going to do some token attack that is guaranteed not to produce anything of military value and could end up rallying Russians around the flag.

 

[MC3OZ]

Russia's false flag operation was so blatantly staged it's about as believable as a 4 year old with chocolate all over their face denying that they got into the chocolate.

There are some suggestions it may have been Russian partisans as a symbolic warning only, in the hope that the May day [parade would be cancelled.

The claim is partisans pulled back from an earlier plan for a symbolic attack the May day parade.

If true, that makes a bit more sense...

 

[wdolson]

There are some suggestions it may have been Russian partisans as a symbolic warning only, in the hope that the May day [parade would be cancelled.

The claim is partisans pulled back from an earlier plan for a symbolic attack the May day parade.

If true, that makes a bit more sense...

A Russian partisan attack is much higher on my list of suspects than Ukraine.

 

[wdolson]

I noticed the Ukrainians have been reporting somewhat high Russian artillery losses the last three days.
https://www.mil.gov.ua/en/news/2023...s-of-the-enemy-from-24-02-2022-to-05-05-2023/

It looks like the Ukrainians are targeting artillery. Thinning the herd before the offensive kicks off.

 

[heltok]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1654399885980868609

https://twitter.com/x/status/1654331766771949571

 

[nativewolf]

Wagner has been screaming for a month that the attack would happen on May 9- symbolic day. So, he is getting his men out of the way and pulling back to a better defensive position where they can protect him.

In other news the casualty number released have started showing large numbers of vehicles. Just in the last couple of days but that is the clearest indication to me that they are absolutely shaping. Tank losses are falling to less than a handful. APC losses mostly high, artillery high, small drones- high

 

[lolachampcar]

This is where the rubber hits the road when Wagner puts a deadline out there. I can not fathom how this could be part of a Putin master plan to pit his people against each other but I guess I will not have to wait long to see how it plays out.

 

[madodel]

Revenge, Fear and Sarcasm – How Russians Reacted to the Kremlin Drone ‘Attack’
A recent report revealed that one of the current biggest fears of the Russian population is the possibility of acts of sabotage on their own territory.

There was also a lot of sarcasm and criticism of President Putin. In reference to a popular but unproven theory that a suitcase carried by a man who accompanies Putin on trips outside the Kremlin contains the president’s feces, one person wrote: "Looks like our idiot president needs to carry two excrement suitcases already."

Looks like not all Russians are buying the "excrement" Putie and his flunkies are selling.

 

[JRP3]

Pro Ukrainian Russian has interesting takes on the conflict, including some insight into the Kremlin "attack": The newly installed air defense let the drones through? Kremlin turned off the lights right before the "attack"? Men climbing the dome during the "attack"?

 

[madodel]

DW News discussion on the recent announcement by Prigozhin claiming the Wagner Group will leave Bakhmut and blaming Russia's Defense officials for lack of support.

 

[wws]

DW News discussion on the recent announcement by Prigozhin claiming the Wagner Group will leave Bakhmut and blaming Russia's Defense officials for lack of support...

So if Prigozhin should conveniently "jump off" a 7th story balcony, what would that mean to Wagner in places like Syria and Sudan?

 

[iPlug]

Not sure if this could also be theatrics/distraction. With the Ukrainian counteroffensive likely imminent, ideally to punch through southwards, Putin could have directed Prigozhin to feign withdrawal from Bakhmut to give Ukrainians false hope of a successful counter-attack there and bog down offensive troops needlessly.

 

[BitJam]

Not sure if this could also be theatrics/distraction. With the Ukrainian counteroffensive likely imminent, ideally to punch through southwards, Putin could have directed Prigozhin to feign withdrawal from Bakhmut to give Ukrainians false hope of a successful counter-attack there and bog down offensive troops needlessly.

I don't think so because according to Reporting from Ukraine, both sides were already expecting a diversionary attack by the Ukrainians north of Bakhmut to threaten encircling the city.

This was published before the Russian withdrawal from Bakhmut was announced. Therefore I don't think a withdrawal from Bakhmut (real or otherwise) would change Ukraine's strategy so there is no point in Russia pretending.

OTOH, it would make sense for Prigozhin to actually withdraw before getting encircled. He reported an increase in Ukrainian armor in this region which helped telegraph a possible diversionary attack here. As we have discussed before, the Russians are very keen to avoid getting encircled.

Blaming the withdrawal on lack of ammunition and in-fighting instead of on the threat of getting encircled could well be a face saving subterfuge right before the May 9th Victory Day celebration.