navguy12
Active Member
The allied ability to eavesdrop on which ships were the German resupply ships in the Med via the broken Enigma codes also didn't help his re-supply situation.
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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
USA wont block f16 shipments.
lolachampcar
Well-Known Member
The F16s will open a bunch of doors for ordinance choices. A vast variety of capability can be quietly shipped in once those birds are in the air. This is not just an airspace defense move.
petit_bateau
Active Member
I am fairly sure that 35mm proximity fuzed ammunition is available (there is enough size in the lump), though I don't think it is used in the Gepard/Oerlikon system. Furthermore I suspect it is neither required nor in use by Ukraine. Also whilst there is an airburst round (from Aselsan, using time fuzing rather than proxi) there is no reason to believe that has found its way to Ukraine. (imho) the accuracy of the system is such that conventional HE types are sufficient for glide bomb type targets which are relatively slow and not manoeuvring. The wings on those things mean they are travelling a lot slower than a typical mach 2 manoeuvring anti-ship missile which the 35mm system is also quite capable of tackling using HE in its Skyguard guise. If you read through the links below and follow the footnotes you can see the operational effectiveness, and further info on the ammo types. I think they've solved the problem with the Nammo ammo for these by the way, plus recently the Swiss seem to have changed their legal position on their supply.
(I don't actually know who - other than presumably the Turks - uses the Aselsan time-delay fuzed ammo which gets to much the same outcome as prox fuzed ammo given the overall system capability. Also there is a shotgun style amoo type (AHEAD) which will seriously upset the wing kit on glide bomb, but really isn't needed imho as against those things the Gepards are basically shooting hittiles with conventional HE.
There are quite a lot of indications that each Patriot battery has a Gepard acting as goalkeeper for anything that gets past the Patriot's indigenous capabilities. I'm fairly sure that the IRIS-T batteries will similarly be guarded, and quite a lot of other high value targets. That means that Ukraine simply doesn't have enough of these things - or the somewhat comparable ZSU equivalents - to act as goalkeeper for all the target sets that the glide bombs would be used against. This numerical analysis is precisely why NATO doctrine is to solve air threats primarily by having air control (or at least denial).
Therefore the Ukraine analysis that they need/want F-16 etc so as to push back glide bomb launch aircraft more than the 40km range are quite reasonable. Whilst (technically) they could push Patriot/S-300/etc right up to the front line to try to solve the problem that would be a not-sensible risk of those types of systems, and would also denude the existing city/critical infrastructure/etc coverage that they are currently providing. However we likely saw last week that Ukraine was prepared to risk a Bukh launcher in a SAM ambush against Russian aircraft that were operating behind the front line, so that will be giving the Russian pilots considerable food for thought. A high altitude release gets the most standoff range but is so obvious on radar and who knows what might be on the other side; a medium altitude release is practically beggin to be countered; and low altitude toss release might not even be possible with a Russian glide bomb and in any case will give the least range.
I suspect that in time USA will grant transfer authorisation - most liukely for the Netherlands F16s that are in any case due to come out of service soon. The UK has highly likely (imho) undertaken to carry out the NATO airpolicing role for NL airspace until/if the Dutch F35 units are not yet numerically sufficient to fully carry the job. That much seems clear from the tone of some of the UK and NL reports. And the UK/NL/French/etc are quite capable of putting the required trtaining packages together for both operators and maintainers.
So over to you US-ians to get on the phone/email/etc to your political representatives and tell them to release the F16 transfer authorisations PDQ.
all imho.
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
Allegedly:
Ukraine's intelligence service's numbers for the Dictator's production capacity for cruise missiles and ballistic missiles.
Ukraine's intelligence service's numbers for the Dictator's production capacity for cruise missiles and ballistic missiles.
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This is a pretty interesting development.
Joke in aviation is everything can be fixed with speed tape....
So why not missile defense systems!?!?! haha
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Awesome. There should be enough F-16s in Europe to make a good first wave. And I'm sure the US is looking forward to back-filling those with F35s.
Win win.
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Just to clarify, was Duck Tape the brand they used? If so I'm buying some today!
As @petit_bateau alluded to earlier the NL is on track to replace their entire fleet of f16 with f35s. Not sure about others.
Politico reports that USA will support joint training on the f16.
Italy likely sending wheeled anti-tank platform to Ukriane as I type (see Noels twitter feed) which is consistent with the past action of Italy to (out of charachter?) just do things but not make much of it. During Zelensky visit to Italy there was supposedly good news, this would be good for Ukraine. The Italian tank destroyer is slightly better armored than the French version and would do well in supporting an armored brigade after the initial breakthrough. Also, faster. USA studied this platform at length (leased many) to develop the Stryker platform.
Politico reports that USA will support joint training on the f16.
Italy likely sending wheeled anti-tank platform to Ukriane as I type (see Noels twitter feed) which is consistent with the past action of Italy to (out of charachter?) just do things but not make much of it. During Zelensky visit to Italy there was supposedly good news, this would be good for Ukraine. The Italian tank destroyer is slightly better armored than the French version and would do well in supporting an armored brigade after the initial breakthrough. Also, faster. USA studied this platform at length (leased many) to develop the Stryker platform.
I don't think anyone can give quite enough credit in all of this to the UK. They've been willing to lead. Even if they don't always have the most or best anymore they have provided the most and best leadership. They have made it possible for Germany, Italy, France, Sweden, Finland and even the USA to follow.
F-16 training to begin within weeks and take place in Europe, per Politico.
'Big step': U.S. joins major effort to train Ukrainian pilots on F-16s, other jets
'Big step': U.S. joins major effort to train Ukrainian pilots on F-16s, other jets
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
Seems to be behind paywall...
Miles Johnson in London and Max Seddon in Riga
A front company for the Russian mercenary group Wagner acquired tens of thousands of protective helmets from China late last year, at the same time as the group’s chief Yevgeny Prigozhin was raising a vast prisoner army to attack Ukraine. [...]
A Wagner-connected, Russia-based company called Broker Expert bought 20,000 polymer-based helmets from a small Chinese company called Hangzhou Shinerain Import And Export Co in November and December last year, according to customs declarations analysed by the FT, and interviews. The Chinese group claimed they were for “gaming use”. [..."
www.ft.com
Credit goes to:
"Wagner-linked group buys helmets from China despite sanctions
[...]Miles Johnson in London and Max Seddon in Riga
A front company for the Russian mercenary group Wagner acquired tens of thousands of protective helmets from China late last year, at the same time as the group’s chief Yevgeny Prigozhin was raising a vast prisoner army to attack Ukraine. [...]
A Wagner-connected, Russia-based company called Broker Expert bought 20,000 polymer-based helmets from a small Chinese company called Hangzhou Shinerain Import And Export Co in November and December last year, according to customs declarations analysed by the FT, and interviews. The Chinese group claimed they were for “gaming use”. [..."
Wagner-linked group buys helmets from China despite sanctions
Entities connected with mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin continue to frustrate western efforts to choke off supplies
www.ft.com
Credit goes to:
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Kazakhstan appears to be a major route around sanctions for Russia.
www.occrp.org
Kazakhstan Has Become a Pathway for the Supply of Russia’s War Machine. Here’s How It Works. - OCCRP
Western sanctions are meant to prevent Russia from supplying its military from abroad, but sensitive electronics are still getting through. Reporters traced several of these supply chains through K...
www.occrp.org
Possible Wagner is hollowing out its Bakhmut and Ukrainian presence. Taking all of their most valued men and leaving behind the husk. Like a snake shedding its skin. Seems like this would be a big blow to the Russians and cause a permanent break between Prigozin and Russia.
Maybe this is why Wagner is begging for the flanks to hold for 2 days. That’s how long it’ll take for him to get the last of his best men out of the country. You have to figure if he was planning this they would have quietly been hollowing out their forces for the past few weeks.
Maybe this is why Wagner is begging for the flanks to hold for 2 days. That’s how long it’ll take for him to get the last of his best men out of the country. You have to figure if he was planning this they would have quietly been hollowing out their forces for the past few weeks.
If Ukraine gets them before they get away, it will be a wonderful service to humanity.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Reports that Ukraine is hitting Russian occupied Mariupol, possibly the airport.
May 16 EU acknowledges Kazakhstan’s efforts to curb Russia sanction circumventionKazakhstan appears to be a major route around sanctions for Russia.
Kazakhstan Has Become a Pathway for the Supply of Russia’s War Machine. Here’s How It Works. - OCCRP
Western sanctions are meant to prevent Russia from supplying its military from abroad, but sensitive electronics are still getting through. Reporters traced several of these supply chains through K...
The British holding on to Malta gave them a base for anti-shipping efforts, but records show the Italians were getting lots of supply through. The General Staff never considered North Africa more than a side show because they knew supplying a large enough force through the desert was not going to be possible with German resources. Rommel thought he could roll up Egypt and capture Saudi Arabia.
Libya has few ports that can be used to offload supplies. Benghazi is a decent port today, but it wasn't that usable in the 1940s. The two best ports in Libya were Tripoli and Tobruk. The Australians held out in Tobruk for a long time denying Rommel a forward port. Rommel only saw it as an annoyance, but the 8th Army command saw it as vital. Without Tobruk he had to supply his army with trucks from Tripoli. By the time he reached western Egypt the AK was burning 90% of its fuel moving supplies from Tripoli to the front lines. His trucks quickly started wearing out from the long drives along dirt roads fully loaded.
When Tobruk finally did fall Rommel got one load of supplies in there, but a lot of the ships were sunk by RAF anti-shipping aircraft flying out of Egypt. It became clear that Tobruk was not going to be viable as a supply port.
Seems to be behind paywall...
"Wagner-linked group buys helmets from China despite sanctions
[...]
Miles Johnson in London and Max Seddon in Riga
A front company for the Russian mercenary group Wagner acquired tens of thousands of protective helmets from China late last year, at the same time as the group’s chief Yevgeny Prigozhin was raising a vast prisoner army to attack Ukraine. [...]
A Wagner-connected, Russia-based company called Broker Expert bought 20,000 polymer-based helmets from a small Chinese company called Hangzhou Shinerain Import And Export Co in November and December last year, according to customs declarations analysed by the FT, and interviews. The Chinese group claimed they were for “gaming use”. [..."
Wagner-linked group buys helmets from China despite sanctions
Entities connected with mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin continue to frustrate western efforts to choke off supplies
Credit goes to:
A number of those helmets, or ones like them have been captured. They say on the inside "Not for Military Use" or "Does Not Provide Head Protection". Some helmets say they are for paint ball use only, others indicate they are for costume use only.
It's possible that the helmets Wagner bought were real military helmets and the shipment was hidden as a shipment of toy helmets, but the Russians have been buying toy helmets.
Humblebrag... saw this coming. No way was he or his real troops staying in Bahkmut in the face of it being actually contested.
