Uk’s Sunak headed to DC to talk some sense into Biden
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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
Very much begs the question: Where do they run to?
If Ukraine cuts them off, they are stuck on what is essentially a complex peninsula which Ukraine will be slowly shutting down. Russia won't evacuate deserters, I doubt even to prosecute them. There are going to be potentially thousands of Russian soldiers looting the Ukrainian countryside.
According to Denys Davydov the drone attack on Moscow the drones had no explosives. The few that got through just crashed into a mostly affluent elites neighborhood. It may have just been to show that Moscow can be targeted if someone wants to.
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Don't make the mistake of others and think that you'll pin or discombobulate the russians to such an extent that that they collapse. They did not collapse in Kherson and they stabalized the front in Kremenia. They turned that 30 mile column stuck outside of Kiev around in 1 day and were back to safety in that 1 day. The southern commanders are the best, the defenses the best organized. Ukraine is, I am sure, counting on slogging the whole way. They are ruthless, determined and have very low rates of desertion/surrender compared to the folks the USA has been fighting post Vietnam. They are also adapting and the leader has bet the nation on this mis adventure.
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BitJam
Active Member
Ben Hodges also predicted that Ukraine would leave the Kerch Bridge intact until shortly after the war is over. Again, this is what they did in Kherson. They did not totally cut off Russia's escape route. Russians do not like being encircled. They had many bad experiences with it in WW2.
Could be for many tactical reasons. Send cheap drones and force them to use expensive anti air defences. Gather intel about where their anti air is located to avoid them/take them out in future actual strikes. See if it's worth sending more expensive rockets/drones, to attempt to take out Putin or other high value targets. Gather images to find new targets. Force Russia to move around troops as a part of Ukraine's shaping operations.
One major thing that has changed during the war is that Ukraine has set up it's own drone manufacturing operations and they are gathering more and more experiences both in how to use drones in wars but also how to manufacture drones. Russia are not standing still either, but they have a lot of disadvantages with not getting support from the west, sanctions on electronics, losing lots of their high skilled labour who fled the country etc. I expected Ukraine to gain an advantage in drone warfare the longer the war progresses and I think we have been seeing the effects of this over the last months.
I think this is a good call. But... they can nuke the RR and one side of the bridge. They just need 1/2 of the driving span to walk back to Russia
SunTzu would say always leave a path of escape because if given a path men will flee. If cornered they may fight to the death. You may hunt and kill the fleeing at your leisure. So, it is an old old adage
Many may surrender. If the situation in Russia begins to destabilize, the army will need every person they can, even ship the deserters they can catch back to Russia to put down rebellions.
In any case if the Russian troops are fleeing, they aren't manning the defenses giving the Ukrainians free reign to roll up the territory.
The Russians are digging a lot of trenches in the south and they have probably laid a lot of mines, but their positioning of dragon's teeth is pathetically bad. They have also stripped out a number of their best units in the south to send them to Bakhmut. More units are moving now from the south to Belgorod.
The Russians were only able to stabilize Kremina because the Ukrainians ran out of supplies to keep the offensive going.
The Russians have had some successes and they have learned some things, but they have had many more screw ups than successes and their rate of learning and adapting is way worse than Ukraine which has adapted very fast.
Though the latest is that it appears the drones originated from within Russia. Russia has a resistance movement that is circulating underground. I think they were behind the attack on the Kremlin too.
Ukraine will not target Putin. International law prohibits targeting the leader of another country.
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
Does Ukraine have small drones with that sort of range and still able to carry a decent payload? People bring up the example of the Iranian drone attacks on Kyiv, but Kyiv is much closer to Russian occupied territory and Belarus, so they can be launched at much closer range. Moscow however is much further from the Ukrainian border.
It could also be possible these were launched from within Russia, so that would suggest that either there are Russian sympathizers, Ukraine has the ability to penetrate deep into Russian territory undetected (the recent border incursion at Belgorod was not such an example as it was very public), or this is a very 4D chess false flag by Russia (as others pointed out this time official Russian sources were downplaying the attack, which does not match how false flags are usually done, as usually they are overblown to maximize the ultimate goal, much like the flag pole incident, which was made a much bigger deal of even though the effect was much less).
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On the radio today they were talking about Ukraine having a homemade drone with the range to just make it to Moscow from the most northern oblasts. So it is technically possible for Ukraine to launch a drone attack on Moscow, and it is possible that Ukraine is giving weapons to the Russian resistance. A Russian civil war would end the war in Ukraine.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
'Drone attack' set fire to Russian oil refinery, according to local official
The incident comes a day after officials in Moscow said the Russian capital had been targeted by drones.
news.sky.com
The drones used on Moscow yesterday certainly look very much like the Foxtech drone referenced here and the range would allow them to be launched from Ukraine. I'm still on the fence as to who was behind it but this is a credible take on it.
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Thread by @TrentTelenko on Thread Reader App
@TrentTelenko: In the last few hours Ukraine has struck the posh Moscow neighborhood where Russian oligarchs live with what looks like a converted Foxtech REX 340 Canard VTOL/compound helicopter drone @Aviation_Inte...…
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Not sure I see the point of his threat. If Russia attacks UK Gov’t officials, doesn't that invoke NATO response?
Medvedev seems to have gone off the rails even worse than Putin. All the same, if any third country were involved in any war just to a fraction of the involvement of the US and the UK in the Ukrainian/Russian war, then the US and the UK would see that third country and its representatives as legitimate military targets.
What about the attack on the Iranian general in Iraq? Are Iran and the US at war?
If the gov't officials were in a NATO member nation at the time of the attack, that would certainly elicit a very swift NATO response. There is no point to his threat- it just reeks of desperation.
By all accounts Russia is moving mobile reserves from Kremenia to Bahkmut but they ALSO stripped the north to send units south. The attacks on the troop concentrations in Marioupul were units being stripped from Kremenia and sent to the south. NOT the reverse. Russia is reinforcing the south which is EXACTLY what it seems Ukraine wants them to do ..exactly as happened in Kherson. Prediction: Units in south will not break and run. They are the best commanded and leadership will matter. They never broke and ran in Kherson and I don't think they will there, not at first. Some estimates have the south with 150k soldiers. Russia will have a problem concentrating a reserve to reinforce defensive lines with armor but you can bet this will not be a cakewalk.
The reason the units did not break in Kremenia is because Russia put an elite VDV unit into Lyman and bleed the Ukrainian assault. They bled it dry while troops reinforced Kremenia. They punished the Ukrainian assault with a single VDV unit. Then when other units were dug in Kreminia and prepared the Lyman units RETREATED under fire- very very difficult to do. They NEVER broke. Trying to help you understand that Ukraine is not dealing with primitive, brutal disorganized nobodies. Time and time again Russia has taken a pretty good knock on the chin and not had units collapse. The collapse only happened once with stripped out units operating at 15-20% of staffing on Kharkiv front. That's it. Never happened again. ONE time. The Ukrainians know this so they are not rushing forward blindly. They are feinting, moving, feinting, hitting units in transition, using all the weapons available, using weather, using information. They don't do all of that because they expect Russian units to break they do all of these things to gain even the slightest edge, to encourage the idiots in the russian MOD to make yet another mistake. Russian forces only break when Russian commanders do something grossly stupid such as put mobiks on flanks in Bahkmut and then it is a few hundred meters lost or maybe a few KM or strip all the manpower out of a region to reinforce another region.
The question to ask yourself if you want to think like the Ukrainian high command. IS where do you want them to strip assets? then find out if they have stripped assets. What can you do to convince them to strip more? Everyone is talking about an attack south. The terrain is lovely for it. It will obviously cut logistics. Russian commanders there are the best. Ukrainian and Russian bloggers talk about it, storm shadows hit targets in the south. Himars hits every other day in the south. Mobile armor made a probe all the way back in March(when it was still snowing the north, LOL) , LOTS of talk about it. What happens? Russia has reinforced and continue to reinforce in that direction. They are now putting armor units on trucks and moving them around to keep them mobile. Ukraine will surely attack soon and it surely won't really be the south. That's my prediction. But they will leave the head russian commander thinking it will come to the south ....leave him thinking that until it is too late to reinforce other areas. He's an idiot and his loyalty to Putin and incompetence are Ukraines greatest assets so they will also NOT target him. They will look to get Colonels in the field in the south.
navguy12
Active Member
What I don’t understand is how can these drones fly unmolested from Ukraine territory.
If not a false flag op, then IMO these had to have been launched from some point inside Russian territory by anti Kremlin sympathizers.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Or the vaunted Russian air defense is . . . over-rated.
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