I don’t see Russia quitting unless the war is ramped up in a serious way. It is all upside for them right now. They are holding the land. Winter is coming. Trump is coming. Ukraine equally have internal arguments that can easily worsen.
Russia is not experiencing a lot of upsides. They have succeeded in slowing down the Ukrainians, but they haven't stopped them. The slowness has allowed them to keep the charade with the Russian public going, but it's wearing thin.
Economically this war is ruinous on the Russian economy. The entire Russian defense budget was $66 billion USD in 2021. Estimates are they are spending $500 million to $1 billion on this was
every day. That's $182.5 billion to $365 billion a year. At least three times their annual defense budget. And they still need to spend most of their annual defense budget on top of that on the navy, nuclear forces, etc.
Russia still has a trade surplus, but it's way down from before the war
Russia Balance of Trade - July 2023 Data - 1996-2022 Historical - August Forecast
The trade surplus now is about where it was when Putin took office and the country was a complete mess then.
Their income is way down and their expenses are way up. Somebody posted above that the Russian economy is officially in recession. Any country that goes into a recession during a major war is in economic trouble.
Putin is hoping he can hold out until January 2025 and hopes that Trump will win, but the odds of a Trump win, while not zero is pretty low. I could go into why, but the moderators probably wouldn't like it.
I forget where I saw it, but someone I read was saying that wars always end one of two ways: when a country loses its will to continue, or it loses the ability to continue. Losing the will to continue can take many forms: the people rebel, the economy collapses, and/or the leadership changes. The ability to continue basically hinges on one of two things: the country loses the ability to get more people or equipment to replace loses or their equipment losses get so steep they just can't field the equipment they need to continue.
In WW II the Allies destroyed the means of making more war goods which ground the Axis powers to dust.
As long as political will holds out in the west, Ukraine's flow of equipment is good. Neither side is facing the losses Paraguay faced in the Paraguan War where something like 85% of the men in the country were killed. Russia's arms manufacturing is mostly done outside the range of Ukrainian weapons, though there has been a lot of sabotage.
Russia started the war with a huge equipment reserve and they have been tapping it hard. There still are some reserves, but the quality of equipment coming out of them is getting poorer and poorer. Russia also had huge reserves of artillery shells, bombs, and mines. We don't know how much supply is left, but we do know they have deployed a vast number of artillery shells and mines.
We have evidence at least some of Russia's reserves have been tapped pretty hard. Artillery have complained about being shell starved. We see ancient tanks from the 50s arriving in theater. Their artillery has gone from mostly SP guns to a large number of towed artillery. There is some evidence that they are running low on working guns.
If the Ukrainian numbers for Russian losses are accurate, those numbers don't include losses due to wear and tear which 18 months into a major war are going to be huge. I've seen at least one video of Russian equipment in southern Russia that had been completely stripped and abandoned. An entire field littered with the chassis of an array of Russian vehicles. These were probably stripped to keep other vehicles running.
In infantry equipment there are clear signs Russia is in trouble. The Ukrainians have recovered WW II era rifles from trenches they have overrun on many occasions. There are many videos of Russian infantry complaining that all they have to fight with was one clip of ammunition and nothing else. There are many pictures of Russian soldiers either killed or running away from drones wearing street shoes, no boots. The uniforms Russians are getting are a patchwork quit of odd gear. Some captured helmets are plastic which are stamped "made in China" and "does not provide any protection". They are basically LARPer gear.
There is talk of Russia doing a mass mobilization. If they tried and there weren't mass revolts (which are quite possible), they have no way to train these people and nothing to give them for equipment. What they will have is 8 million men wearing Adidas track suits armed with sticks and no clue what they are doing.
The Chinese showed in the 1950s that a huge mass of poorly armed and poorly trained men can achieve something, but the losses will be horrific for the Russians and they will not be able to take much ground from the Ukrainians. We will see Bakhmut like offensives from the Russians will hundreds of thousands of dead in each battle.
Russia can't afford to lose this generation of young men. Their generational pyramid is already lopsided with more older people than younger. They need all the younger people earning incomes and paying taxes to pay for the retired people. If they lose a significant chunk of that generation that may be game over for Russia as a nation.
The mutiny has left Putin looking weak, which is very dangerous for any dictator. He has spent 20 years surrounding himself with weak willed sycophants who would not challenge his power. Anyone who might threaten his power fell out a window or drank the wrong tea. He is a terrible war leader, but he is very, very good at playing Russian peacetime politics.
Probably the only reason he hasn't been overthrown is the fact that there is nobody who could credibly replace him.
The Russian economy is showing cracks, if they get too big, their entire house of cards will collapse at once. Russia will likely go into hyper inflation and protests that could turn into rebellion will likely follow. I'm sure some of the people here better versed in economics than me can explain what a collapse of the Russian economy would look like.
I think the most likely two scenarios for the end of this war could either be triggered by open rebellion or by economic collapse. Something happening to Putin is another scenario that is possible. Russia's manufacturing is under only mild threat from sabotage, and for now they are able to scrape together something to give their men to fight with. Something happening back in Russia to make them unable or unwilling to continue is the most likely scenario.
The breaking point could happen next week, next year, or they might be able to hold the leaking boat together until 2025. It's like driving on the highway and seeing a car with a wheel that is obviously wobbling. You don't know when that wheel is going to break off, but you know it will happen eventually if they continue to drive on it. The safest thing to be is somewhere else when it happens.
