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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
petit_bateau
Active Member
interview
www.theguardian.com
‘Everything is ahead of us’: Ukraine breaks Russian stronghold’s first line of defence
In an exclusive interview, a leading Ukrainian general says his forces have made a vital breakthrough in near Zaporizhzhia
www.theguardian.com
BitJam
Active Member
A brilliant interview! Thank you! Here is just one snippet:interview
‘Everything is ahead of us’: Ukraine breaks Russian stronghold’s first line of defence
In an exclusive interview, a leading Ukrainian general says his forces have made a vital breakthrough in near Zaporizhzhia
But Ukrainians, who have repeatedly surprised the world in their success against Russian military might, pressed forward. Infantry forces went out at night to painstakingly clear a corridor through the mines, moving metre by metre in the dark.
“As soon as any equipment appeared there, the Russians immediately began to fire at it and destroy it. That’s why de-mining was carried out only by infantry and only at night.”
Of course Ukraine couldn't tell us the details of what was taking so long while their brave sappers were risking their lives every night in the minefields.
The front lines today are not going to be the front lines when the Rasputitsa starts. When mud season starts varies by where you are in the country. The further south you go the later it starts.
The Ukrainians have at least a month, quite possibly 6 weeks before it gets too muddy. They are moving around 2 Km a day now with the best Russian defensive line fully breached and the army in deteriorating condition. It's possible the Ukrainians will encounter some problem that will slow them down, but chances are that their pace will pick up as conditions deteriorate for the Russians. But assume they only get another month of good weather and only average 2 Km per day, that is still 60 Km. Tokmak is 90 Km from the Azov. Getting to only 30 Km from the Azov will allow Ukraine to virtually shut down traffic on the vital coastal road.
They could get to within 10 Km of the road (which runs inland several Km and the Ukrainians could average better than 2 Km per day). That puts the front lines well within 155mm artillery range of the road.
The Russians made a big effort to take the area at the border of Zapronizhia and Donestk last winter, losing a lot of vehicles, because the Ukrainians had the main rail line in the south under artillery interdiction there. Without that rail line they have been stuck to the roads, the main one being a very narrow highway that runs parallel to the coast.
I saw a video someone took near Mariupol a few months ago. The road is a narrow two lane highway and the westbound lanes were a solid traffic jam of civilian semi trucks crawling along.
Russia is in the same sort of problem Rommel had in North Africa. The road supply route has gotten very long and the trucks moving supplies are burning up most of the fuel. For the return trip the trucks need to be fueled from fuel already in theater which may have been moved by the trucks themselves.
Russia's supply lines for the south are very precarious and they are moving into a season where their non-ammunition supply requirements are going to skyrocket. In winter troops need more food, more shelter, and they burn fuel keeping warm. If those things aren't there, troops are going to be dying and getting injured from cold injuries (frostbite, trench foot, hypothermia, etc.) Good discipline for dealing with the cold and staying dry are vital to preventing these injuries, and the Russian army doesn't have that. The Russians may not care about the well being of its troops, but the cold will sap their manpower as badly as a major battle.
On the other side the Ukrainians have good cold weather discipline and their cold injuries last winter were vastly lower than Russia.
The Ukrainians have done well with what they had. NATO would have done things differently, but NATO has a different mix of resources. Ukraine has a hand-me-down army with whatever equipment the world gave them. They have suffered supply shortages and some weapons common in the NATO arsenal (mostly aircraft) are in short supply and will remain in short supply.
There has been so much talk about Russia having a larger population. Ukraine fully mobilized at the start of the war. There is very little economy going on that is not focused on the war in one way or another. The agricultural sector is still trying to grow as much as possible, but that's also in furtherance of the war effort. Ukraine has taken anyone fit for service, including women. Ukraine does not need to make all their weapons and supplies. A large portion is coming from other countries. Ukraine is also united behind the war effort. The number of Ukrainians who think it would be a good thing to let Russia take over Ukraine is very small and they are mostly keeping quiet about it. Ukraine evacuated most of the population who couldn't contribute to the war in the first weeks of the war and most of those people are still living in Europe.
On the other hand Russia has tried to keep their civilian economy going, they need to make virtually all their own supplies with few allies. Where Russia is getting supplies from outside Russia they are paying for them. Russia needs to keep the economy going well enough to pay for the supplies they are importing as well as the supplies they are making themselves. The people of Russia are not behind the war. Most are just keeping quiet and hoping it doesn't affect them too badly.
Because of Russia's inverted population pyramid, they have a large elderly older population that needs to be supported by a small cadre of young working people. Their army is exclusively male. The population that isn't contributing to the war effort are still in Russia drawing resources and needing workers to support.
Russia has about 8 million men between 18 and 30. Most of those men are required to keep the economy going. They can't spare a large portion of them to go to war. A lot of them left the country to avoid being drafted. Most of those who left are the most capable of that generation. If Russia tried to do a mass mobilization to outnumber the Ukrainian army they would end up crippling their civilian economy to do so. Additionally they are struggling to find enough uniforms and small arms for the mobiks they have now. The Ukrainians have been capturing WW II era small arms as they take territory. Lot's of Russia soldiers have been seen on the front lines wearing civilian sports shoes instead of boots and their uniforms are a mishmash of whatever they found in the back of the warehouse.
Russia is physically capable of creating a force of a few million, but their economy would collapse, the army would be wearing Adidas track suits, and they would be armed with sticks.
The Ukrainians have also been vastly better at force preservation. They take fewer risks with lives, and their medical evac is vastly better. The Russians have thrown away lives right and left in their attempts to keep what they captured in the first days of the war. Russian medical evac and field medicine is poorer than what the western Allies had in 1943. Their troops are not training in first aid so when they do give first aid, the do it wrong so a lot of people die from shock or lose limps that could have been saved.
The Ukrainians by evacuating the wounded and doing the best they can to restore all wounded to full health not only helps morale, but it also helps preserve the force and help it get better. Someone who was badly wounded and becomes unable to fight can still be an instructor who imparts what they learned on the trainee soldiers. The disabled can also take rear area jobs that don't require a lot of physical ability. Ukraine needs thousands of drone operators and there are lots of other jobs they can do. This frees up more fit people for the front lines.
As of a few months ago Ukraine had an estimated 800,000-1.2 million people in uniform. Ukraine has done all it can to keep casualties down and return the wounded to the service if possible.
Nobody knows for sure how many people Russia has in Ukraine. I'm not sure the Kremlin has a good idea. Because of rampant lying from commanders, the reports for unit strength are more fiction than fact. We know from intercepted phone calls and videos people have put on Telegram that quite a few Russian units are nothing more than shells with only a handful of troops.
I would say the absolute maximum Russia has in Ukraine, or dedicated to Ukraine (support near Ukraine's borders) is about 300,000. It could be as low as 100,000. This includes all the troops dedicated to supporting their aviation, naval forces, manning the air defenses, and moving supply. That leaves a thin force left to defend a very long front.
Ukraine could have taken heavy losses and done a full scale assault on the first line of defenses, but they chose to preserve their forces and do a more nuanced approach that took more time. Ultimately that's better for Ukraine. Having more people survive the first line of defense attacks leaves them with more forces to go after the next line. Additionally there is also the humanitarian angle, it's always a good idea to preserve the lives of your people for the sake of the people themselves.
BitJam
Active Member
The Economist published an article about Ukrainian sappers in the Robotyne area almost two months ago!
Sappers risk their lives to win Ukraine back, inch by inch
www.economist.com
[may be paywalled. It wasn't for me even though I don't have a subscription.]
Sappers risk their lives to win Ukraine back, inch by inch
Sappers risk their lives to win Ukraine back, inch by inch
Demining by hand, combat engineers try to break through Russian lines
The fate of Ukraine’s counter-offensive hinges on the work of its combat engineers. Sappers are the key to breaking through at least three lines of well-planned Russian defences—and nowhere more so than in the open plains of Zaporizhia region, the main focus of Ukraine’s counter-offensive.
[...] “We don’t have air cover or plentiful Western equipment, so we risk our people. Small group tactics, like the Finns used in the winter war [of 1939-40].” Surprise tactics were the only way to breach an obstacle course like no other built since the second world war, he said.
The work could not be more dangerous. Much of it is done at dawn [perhaps a small fib for opsec]. The Ukrainians have night-vision goggles provided by Western partners and local volunteers, but the optics are not perfect. “A sapper’s main weapon is his eye,” says Sleepless. So the engineers move forwards in the early morning at a snail’s pace, eight to ten metres from each other, probing at 45 degrees until they hit metal. All the while, drones hover above, and the sappers are at constant risk of triggering a barrage of artillery.
[...] The sappers say progress would be much faster if Ukraine had sufficient engineering equipment and air cover to make a mechanical push viable. But the new small-group tactics are achieving modest results. A slow advance has inched Ukrainian positions near Robotyne towards their target of Tokmak to the south, an important rail hub that could put HIMARS rocket-launchers within firing distance of the Russia-Crimea road link.
I am in awe! They have been inching forward meter by meter for months. The article says the combat engineers in this area have the highest casualty rate in the entire Ukrainian army.Героям слава! (Heroiam slava! Glory to the heroes!)
Apparently China is now showing Bolshoy Ussuriysky Island as its territory on new maps. I guess they figure Ruzzia is a bit busy elsewhere.
Russia Breaks Silence Over China Map Claiming Its Territory
Russia Breaks Silence Over China Map Claiming Its Territory
RobStark
Well-Known Member
... which I only know about because I saw bald and bankrupt's video about gopniks from Minsk a while ago. My favorite, although I stopped watching after he was expelled from Russia.
petit_bateau
Active Member
Ukraine will also be keen to get within MLRS range of the Azov Sea ports and viable beaches. Doing that will drastically reduce/eliminate resupply and/or withdrawal options for Russia to being only that M14 highway. That in turn means that - if the Ukraine does achieve a sufficient penetration of the current lines - then the Russians are more likely to go for a controlled withdrawal towards Maripol in the east and Melitpol in the west at some point shortly before winter 2023, just as they did in Kherson on the right (west) bank in late 2022. I certainly hope so for Ukraine as withdrawals can go wrong, though in the case of the 2022 withdrawal the Russians executed it very well.
Looking at the map of the Russian fortifications there is some evidence that the Russians have themselves long been planning for the contingency of such a withdrawal. Why else build the N-S fortification that is north of Melitpol that I have circled below ?
However the rumours are that Putin took a lot of convincing to sanction the controlled withdrawal in Kherson. It will be obvious to Putin that if Ukraine gains access to Azov Sea shoreline then it is game-on for Ukrainian maritime activity all over the Azov Sea, plus it brings Kerch bridge within range of a lot of weaponry.
Best luck for Ukraine.
BitJam
Active Member
Here is a really good synopsis of the war from the Telegraph:
Why Putin’s war is turning in Ukraine’s favour
(Superior weapons and strong morale are giving Ukrainian troops a crucial edge in battle)
www.telegraph.co.uk
A few highlights:
One thing that strikes me as bizarre: they say the fact that Putin went back on his word and assassinated Prigozhin is being used by the defeatists and appeasers as evidence that we should trust Putin's word and negotiate with him.
Remember too, Putin's war on Ukraine started in 2014 just weeks after the Ukrainian people declared independence from his puppet, Viktor Yanukovych. This war is not about fear of NATO expansion, it is about fear of a free and prosperous democracy in a Slavic country that shares a large border with Russia. This is why Putin is hellbent on crushing democracy in Ukraine.
Why Putin’s war is turning in Ukraine’s favour
(Superior weapons and strong morale are giving Ukrainian troops a crucial edge in battle)
Ukraine’s victory is closer than ever – but a shattered Russia is nothing to celebrate
Superior weapons and strong morale are giving Ukrainian troops a crucial edge in battle
www.telegraph.co.uk
A few highlights:
The Western media has been filled with stories quoting unnamed US or other Western officials about how the Ukrainian counter-offensive is stalling, criticising their strategy and tactics.
Last week at an EU summit in Spain, the Ukrainian Foreign Minister, Dmytro Kuleba, told these critics to “shut up, come to Ukraine and try to liberate one square centimetre by themselves”. They were “spitting in the face of the Ukrainian soldier who sacrifices his life every day”, he said.
[...] But the truth is that the fears inspired by nuclear blackmail in the West – including, it would seem, in the Biden administration – have been shown to be baseless.
Every time Ukraine destroys targets inside Crimea or Russia, it is crossing Putin’s red lines. Yet from the Kremlin there has only been conventional – never any sign of nuclear – retaliation.
[...] The executions, rape and torture are on a colossal and systematic scale, as are the abduction of children and the destruction of the ecology and infrastructure in occupied Ukraine.
[...] Ukraine has the tanks, it has the men and it has Zelensky too. This battle-hardened but by no means war-weary people, its national identity forged in adversity, is fighting to liberate all of its land – Crimea included.
With or without Western support and sanctions, Ukraine will fight on until Putin’s evil empire is defeated.
One thing that strikes me as bizarre: they say the fact that Putin went back on his word and assassinated Prigozhin is being used by the defeatists and appeasers as evidence that we should trust Putin's word and negotiate with him.
When people show you who they are, believe them the first time. -- Maya Angelou
Remember, it was appeasement and thinking of Putin as a reasonable man that got us into this mess in the first place. He got away with so much without serious repercussions from the West that he thought he could invade Ukraine and wipe it off the map with impunity.Remember too, Putin's war on Ukraine started in 2014 just weeks after the Ukrainian people declared independence from his puppet, Viktor Yanukovych. This war is not about fear of NATO expansion, it is about fear of a free and prosperous democracy in a Slavic country that shares a large border with Russia. This is why Putin is hellbent on crushing democracy in Ukraine.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
...before Dynamite, there was Swedish Gunpowder*:
*for dingledongs only (you know who you are).
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Quite a nice writeup on things towards robotyne
Ukrainians captured a manual instructing Russian commanders on how to adapt to Ukrainian counter offensive assaults. To me the most interesting thing is that russian reactions are getting much faster. This manual was published shortly after the counteroffensive began. Thats much faster than things moved last year so russia is doing something right.
threadreaderapp.com
Thread by @Tatarigami_UA on Thread Reader App
@Tatarigami_UA: Recently, the Russians released a manual outlining tactics to counter Ukrainian assaults. This guide draws from recent encounters with the 23rd Mechanized Brigade in June and July 2023, particularly ...…
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If you need a laugh
threadreaderapp.com
Thread by @Tatarigami_UA on Thread Reader App
@Tatarigami_UA: Brace yourselves, because russians have once again showcased unparalleled innovation. What you are looking at is a satellite image featuring a TU-95 strategic bomber covered with car tires. According...…
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Some Russian officers don't trust their current commander.
ISW: Russian officers reportedly contact former general amid deteriorating conditions on front line
ISW: Russian officers reportedly contact former general amid deteriorating conditions on front line
Are those shrapnel and fire proof tires?If you need a laugh
Thread by @Tatarigami_UA on Thread Reader App
@Tatarigami_UA: Brace yourselves, because russians have once again showcased unparalleled innovation. What you are looking at is a satellite image featuring a TU-95 strategic bomber covered with car tires. According...…
