People see that Russia is bigger than Ukraine and can't understand why Russia didn't crush Ukraine in three days. I looked at the size of the army Russia was gathering in the weeks before the war started and knew they didn't have enough forces to do the job if Ukraine decided to put up a fight. Most people, even some military analysts thought it was going to be a Russian cake walk.
As a number of people I have seen have said: amateurs study tactics, pros study logistics.
There are quite a few people in the Russian media and "experts" who don't really understand the problem and are proposing pie in the sky solutions which have no basis in reality. Another thing that's going on is these people may be cranking out these documents to please "dear leader" with rosy plans for their glorious victory in the war they can't win.
Speaking of logistics, here is a Times interview with Major General Tim Cross who discusses the Ukrainian approach of targeting Orc logistics. It's not really in depth, but I think it's interesting that Cross has switched over to giving the Ukrainians a chance of winning. Previously he, like nearly all western analysts, felt they had no chance against the Russian economy and production.
To that point, I'd like to make an observation that I haven't seen anywhere else... and therefore is likely to be uninformed speculation from me. YMMV.
I believe that one thing that almost all western analysts are getting wrong is that Russia is not the USSR.
The USSR had the ability to do production, and produce all those artillery barrels that have been used up or destroyed. Russia, not so much. USSR was corrupt, but not at the level of Russia, where literally everything that can be stolen will be.
USSR had the ability to send working probes to the moon, launch manned missions that don't leak propellant. Russia has lost the ability to do space research. The man in charge of the Luna 25 probe was 91 years old- he was the same guy as the original missions. When Luna 25 failed, I think it was not actually an accident that he ingested poisonous mushrooms, because that's Russia. In the USSR they wouldn't be happy, but you don't kill your best scientists for failure.
What I think I am seeing is that Russia is coasting on the fumes of the former USSR. They are using artillery and rockets and tanks from that era, and do not actually have the ability to mount a credible war effort on their own. They had a
lot of war stocks in reserve, most of which has already been used in Ukraine. The fight has dragged because of the absolutely massive stocks of land mines they had in reserve.
I also believe that Russia thinks of
themselves in the USSR way, and can not clearly see that simply don't have the ability to do what the USSR could do. They cannot believe that their vaunted army could be stopped by Ukraine, and keep hitting their heads on the wall, while Ukraine grinds them up.
It looks like a blind spot for all analysts to me, conflating old theories and old analyses to a corrupt and despotic regime because of geography.
IF that is a correct observation, Ukraine can win the war, because Russia has no ability to spin up a stronger war effort, that era is long gone. Outside of theories and analysis, I believe this is what we are seeing on the ground as well- lots and lots of USSR war material and tactics and strategy, including throwing away lives for no reason. But now, without the USSR to back it up.
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