Russia/Ukraine conflict

[wdolson]

Another 40 artillery taken out. Either the Russians are getting desperate and putting their guns more in harm's way trying to get at the Ukrainians, or the Ukrainians are getting even better at hunting down Russian artillery.
Casualties of Russia in Ukraine - official data

I saw the Russians lost one of their 240mm mortars the other day. That gun has 1/2 the range of a 155mm gun and has a long set up and break down time, so they have to get to suicidally short range to fire and once they fire they are sitting ducks.

 

[madodel]

Ok maybe banned was the wrong wording, wanting to ban more accurate:

Closing Doors: How Europe Is Restricting Russians From Traveling

www.rferl.org

On September 9, the Council of the European Union fully suspended the visa-facilitation agreement between the European Union and Russia as part of sanctions imposed due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Travel to the EU thus became more difficult and costly for Russian tourists.

Some Eastern European, Baltic, and Nordic states suggested adopting a total visa ban. Considering the current situation, they maintained, Russian tourists shouldn’t be allowed to visit Europe without any limits. But the EU at that point was too divided to agree on a complete ban.

Several countries, such as Estonia and Lithuania, decided to restrict the entry of Russian citizens at the national level. Others (Latvia and Finland, for example) said they wouldn’t accommodate Russians fleeing the military mobilization that Russian President Vladimir Putin announced on September 21. The EU finally decided to tighten visa regulations further as a response to the increasing number of Russians trying to enter the bloc.

While there are Russians fleeing Ruzzia to avoid certain death in Putler's "Special Military Operation", there are also well off Ruzzians just looking for holiday and to buy the things they can't get in Ruzzia now. Also much of Europe is now overwhelmed with Ukrainian refugees. Resources are needed for them. I'm glad my friend left Russia early on and is safe in the Baltics, at least for now.

 

[heltok]

While there are Russians fleeing Ruzzia to avoid certain death in Putler's "Special Military Operation", there are also well off Ruzzians just looking for holiday and to buy the things they can't get in Ruzzia now. Also much of Europe is now overwhelmed with Ukrainian refugees. Resources are needed for them. I'm glad my friend left Russia early on and is safe in the Baltics, at least for now.

My friend of prime fighting age was home in Moscow visiting his family when they announced the mobilization. He had to pay $5000 to fly to Georgia to escape out of Russia, said it was only men on the flight. I am glad he had that option, wish more Russian men had that option... Raising the bar for them to do this was imo not the right strategy.

I get it, the west is angry with Russia and want to punish Russians. But we should not forget about the consequences of different policies. If a policy that sounds like it is rewarding Russians end up deteriorating Russia's ability to do warfare, then maybe it not a policy we should abandon. And I find that parts of the west often have knee jerk reactions rather than thinking of consequences. Imo that's what got us to this situation, the west decided to have policies that led to shutting down power production and replace it with Russian gas which financed Russia's ability to now do war. Maybe not the best strategy in hindsight.

 

[CitizenKane]

My friend of prime fighting age was home in Moscow visiting his family when they announced the mobilization. He had to pay $5000 to fly to Georgia to escape out of Russia, said it was only men on the flight. I am glad he had that option, wish more Russian men had that option... Raising the bar for them to do this was imo not the right strategy.

I get it, the west is angry with Russia and want to punish Russians. But we should not forget about the consequences of different policies. If a policy that sounds like it is rewarding Russians end up deteriorating Russia's ability to do warfare, then maybe it not a policy we should abandon. And I find that parts of the west often have knee jerk reactions rather than thinking of consequences. Imo that's what got us to this situation, the west decided to have policies that led to shutting down power production and replace it with Russian gas which financed Russia's ability to now do war. Maybe not the best strategy in hindsight.

According to polls made in Russia - even if you cannot believe them in the absolute you can see trends - support for Putin and the war is increasing, not the opposite. I doubt letting rich Russians leave Russia will mean much to stop the war, as they seem to have a magical way of avoiding being drafted anyway... Sanctions and bans are not about "punishing Russians", it's about making the war costly for the elite. I don't want to see rich Russians spending money in Stockholm restaurants while Ukrainian children are being bombed and deported.

 

[heltok]

According to polls made in Russia - even if you cannot believe them in the absolute you can see trends - support for Putin and the war is increasing, not the opposite. I doubt letting rich Russians leave Russia will mean much to stop the war, as they seem to have a magical way of avoiding being drafted anyway... Sanctions and bans are not about "punishing Russians", it's about making the war costly for the elite. I don't want to see rich Russians spending money in Stockholm restaurants while Ukrainian children are being bombed and deported.

I prefer they spend the money in Stockholm rather than in Moscow. What's the harm in them having some nice dinners? You think lack of Stockholm dinners will make them kill Putin?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Russia had on the order of 40K towed artillery pieces at the beginning of hostilities. I think they've now lost ~4K guns since hostilities began in Ukraine. It's not the number of tubes available; it's ammo supply logistics that will end Russia's war. HIMARS and Excalibre play a major role in disrupting logistics, as do AFU drone squadrons. This is a new type of war, much like the way the Lilliputians defeated Gulliver. Trick is, what do you do with him once you've got him tied down? Plans to blind and starve the giant may not end well for all involved. Ironic that the little man, Putin, is Gulliver in this retelling.

 

[CitizenKane]

I prefer they spend the money in Stockholm rather than in Moscow. What's the harm in them having some nice dinners? You think lack of Stockholm dinners will make them kill Putin?

Russian elites send their kids to school in the West, buy villas on the Riviera and vacation in Europe, all while talking about the depraved West. Yes, I think if we make it less easy to live the high life as a profiteer from genocide, it is more likely that the elites will turn on the regime. I also, morally, think it is the right thing to do. I understand that not all Russians are bad and that some will be unjustly hurt by this, but that is a small "cost" compared to the war itself.

 

[Buckminster]

I think there is a difference between elite high net worth families (maybe 10,000) that are connected to oligarchs and the millions of rich middle class Russians strewn around the world.

 

[wdolson]

Russia had on the order of 40K towed artillery pieces at the beginning of hostilities. I think they've now lost ~4K guns since hostilities began in Ukraine. It's not the number of tubes available; it's ammo supply logistics that will end Russia's war. HIMARS and Excalibre play a major role in disrupting logistics, as do AFU drone squadrons. This is a new type of war, much like the way the Lilliputians defeated Gulliver. Trick is, what do you do with him once you've got him tied down? Plans to blind and starve the giant may not end well for all involved. Ironic that the little man, Putin, is Gulliver in this retelling.

Your numbers are a bit off. Russia started the war with
Mortars (82mm and 120mm, short range infantry use) - ~5000
Towed guns ~8200
SP Guns ~6200

The infantry mortars are a type of artillery, but they fall into a different category than field guns which are the SP and towed guns. We know that some percentage of the guns in reserve at the start of the war were useless because they had burned out the barrels in the Chechen wars and just stuck them into reserve rather than scrap them or try to repair them. There are satellite imagery from the SP gun parks showing some of the SP guns left there and they look like they have been stripped for parts.

Ukraine claims they have taken out 6565 guns in combat. We don't know how many Russian guns have been taken out of service because the barrel burned out or some other problem. That's losses on top of the 6500 Ukraine claims. The number of guns that are out because of wear and tear could easily be close to the number Ukraine have taken out in combat. Last year many Russian guns got insanely heavy use for a few months and they must have worn out a lot of barrels from that combat.

Russia may have started the war with ~12,000-13000 guns that actually work and they could have lost 10,000 to 11,000. Last month they lost more than 900 guns in one month in combat and this month they are on pace to lose even more than that. Russia may have been able to repair some damaged guns by stripping parts. So they are probably putting some of the lost guns back into service, but with no barrel production they have a bottleneck. Most of their replacement barrels for worn out barrels is probably being scrounged from guns the Ukrainians took out but didn't damage the barrel that badly.

Even if they are able to bring some guns back online, they are still losing them at a huge rate. Their remaining guns is probably down in the 2000-5000 range. I think it's the lower end. And just about all their guns have a fair bit of wear and tear on them at this point. Losing 900 guns a month is unsustainable.

Russia is probably trying to buy guns from North Korea. China may be able to slip them their old towed guns which came from the USSR. China can't really get away with selling their SP guns because all of their SP guns in service are native designs. They use Russian caliber ammunition, but look different from Russian guns. It would be pretty obvious to observers where they came from if China did try to slip some to the Russians.

Russia can be forced into a critical shortage of guns at the current rate of losses.

Ammunition supply is probably not the choke point anymore. They appear to have mostly burned through their Soviet reserve, but with fewer tubes to shoot with, they are pretty much matching production right now.

Reports have been that the Ukrainians are firing more artillery per day than the Russians now. Western artillery is vastly more accurate requiring fewer rounds per fire mission, which means Ukrainian artillery has become much more effective.

Perun's latest video was on battlefield casualties and up until the offensive this summer that #1 casualty cause for Ukrainians was Russian artillery. Mines moved up into the #1 spot during the offensive. But artillery is still a big cause of wounds and death in areas where the front is fairly stable. Eliminating the artillery eliminates one of the worst vectors for casualties. As the Ukrainian offensive gets deeper into the Russian lines, they are also getting past having to fight in areas that are heavily mined so mine casualties will be going down too. There are mined areas that were bypassed, those will have to be dealt with eventually, but for now Ukrainian troops can worry a little less about stepping on a mine at any second.

Taking out Russian artillery is taking away Russia's most effective combat tool and also reduces casualties. A win win for Ukraine.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Taking out Russian artillery is taking away Russia's most effective combat tool and also reduces casualties. A win win for Ukraine.

Not really. Choking off the supply of artillery ammo is, though: "The projectile is the weapon of the Artillery".

 

[unk45]

I think there is a difference between elite high net worth families (maybe 10,000) that are connected to oligarchs and the millions of rich middle class Russians strewn around the world.

Many, maybe most, foreigners think very wealthy Russians must be Oligarchs. The Oligarchs obtained their wealth through political favors during the 1990's privatization push under first Yeltsin, then Putin, who has been far more personally involved than was his alcoholic predecessor. During the Yeltsin year many Russians became very wealthy with startups, smuggling and more. Those sometimes became billionaires too. Some of them have relinquished Russian citizenship following the 2014 Crimean invasion, especially ones with Ukrainian family connections.

The rest of the world des not really know those exist. I know some of them, frequently carrying Cypriot or other passports these days.

 

[wdolson]

Not really. Choking off the supply of artillery ammo is, though: "The projectile is the weapon of the Artillery".

To truly choke off the supply the Ukrainians would have to take out the factories and those are a long ways away from Ukraine. The guns are in Ukraine and within range of Ukrainian guns.

Taking out ammo dumps and attacking transport routes is called interdiction. That slows down supply, and can choke off supply completely for short periods, but the enemy is always working to get around supply bottlenecks.

The Allies did a massive interdiction campaign before the Normandy landings. They knocked out just about every bridge into the Normandy region and fighters roamed the countryside attacking any vehicle they found. After the landings artillery, both landed and naval did interdiction fire missions to interdict as much supply as possible. It gave the German quartermasters fits, but it didn't completely choke off the units fighting in Normandy.

It is much easier to cut off supply if you are physically occupying the land routes, or you have the ability to isolate an area from sea supply. The US would routinely shut down all supply to an island in the Pacific before they invaded. Carriers would often conduct raids on any islands within aerial range of the target to destroy any transport aircraft. This was highly effective and Japanese garrisons were on their own by the time the Marines (or army) landed.

Russia's supply routes to the south are tenuous. They have Crimea and rail lines from Crimea and then they have one road in the south that is narrow and has limits on how much traffic can move on that road in a day. If Ukraine can cut off Crimea from the sea and at least interdict that road, Russia will be able to move some supply to the south, but it will be marginal. If this turns out to be a cold winter, the Russians will lose a lot of troops to the cold. Supply demands go up in the winter.

The east is a tougher slog because the Russians have many supply routes. The Donbas has the densest rail network in Ukraine.

Many, maybe most, foreigners think very wealthy Russians must be Oligarchs. The Oligarchs obtained their wealth through political favors during the 1990's privatization push under first Yeltsin, then Putin, who has been far more personally involved than was his alcoholic predecessor. During the Yeltsin year many Russians became very wealthy with startups, smuggling and more. Those sometimes became billionaires too. Some of them have relinquished Russian citizenship following the 2014 Crimean invasion, especially ones with Ukrainian family connections.

The rest of the world des not really know those exist. I know some of them, frequently carrying Cypriot or other passports these days.

There are lots of Russians who are fairly well off who are not oligarchs. Because Moscow doesn't trust anyone from outside the Moscow/St Petersburg area, almost all industry in Russia is owned by oligarchs, but all the managers are Muscovites. The managers live in temporary housing and travel back and forth to visit their families. The low level managers have their kids in private schools in St Petersburg or Moscow and travel back and forth to there. The higher level managers have their kids in private schools in Europe and have been banking money in foreign bank accounts. Their plan is to retire in comfort somewhere in Europe and their kids to get a good education and basically become Europeans.

These managers are not billionaires. Some many be millionaires, and considering the corruption in Russia many are probably stealing some of it. But most of those in Europe would probably be considered upper middle class and the ones stuck in Russia more average middle class. They are much better off than the average Russian, but they aren't buying multi-million dollar yachts either.

 

[unk45]

To truly choke off the supply the Ukrainians would have to take out the factories and those are a long ways away from Ukraine. The guns are in Ukraine and within range of Ukrainian guns.

Taking out ammo dumps and attacking transport routes is called interdiction. That slows down supply, and can choke off supply completely for short periods, but the enemy is always working to get around supply bottlenecks.

The Allies did a massive interdiction campaign before the Normandy landings. They knocked out just about every bridge into the Normandy region and fighters roamed the countryside attacking any vehicle they found. After the landings artillery, both landed and naval did interdiction fire missions to interdict as much supply as possible. It gave the German quartermasters fits, but it didn't completely choke off the units fighting in Normandy.

It is much easier to cut off supply if you are physically occupying the land routes, or you have the ability to isolate an area from sea supply. The US would routinely shut down all supply to an island in the Pacific before they invaded. Carriers would often conduct raids on any islands within aerial range of the target to destroy any transport aircraft. This was highly effective and Japanese garrisons were on their own by the time the Marines (or army) landed.

Russia's supply routes to the south are tenuous. They have Crimea and rail lines from Crimea and then they have one road in the south that is narrow and has limits on how much traffic can move on that road in a day. If Ukraine can cut off Crimea from the sea and at least interdict that road, Russia will be able to move some supply to the south, but it will be marginal. If this turns out to be a cold winter, the Russians will lose a lot of troops to the cold. Supply demands go up in the winter.

The east is a tougher slog because the Russians have many supply routes. The Donbas has the densest rail network in Ukraine.



There are lots of Russians who are fairly well off who are not oligarchs. Because Moscow doesn't trust anyone from outside the Moscow/St Petersburg area, almost all industry in Russia is owned by oligarchs, but all the managers are Muscovites. The managers live in temporary housing and travel back and forth to visit their families. The low level managers have their kids in private schools in St Petersburg or Moscow and travel back and forth to there. The higher level managers have their kids in private schools in Europe and have been banking money in foreign bank accounts. Their plan is to retire in comfort somewhere in Europe and their kids to get a good education and basically become Europeans.

These managers are not billionaires. Some many be millionaires, and considering the corruption in Russia many are probably stealing some of it. But most of those in Europe would probably be considered upper middle class and the ones stuck in Russia more average middle class. They are much better off than the average Russian, but they aren't buying multi-million dollar yachts either.

Some have bought ice-breaking yachts, and much much more. For some reason several of those have been said to be oligarchs but are not. These people are not the middle and higher managers, who have been numerous and who also have often migrated to other countries.

 

[UncaNed]

Another 40 artillery taken out. Either the Russians are getting desperate and putting their guns more in harm's way trying to get at the Ukrainians, or the Ukrainians are getting even better at hunting down Russian artillery.
Casualties of Russia in Ukraine - official data

I saw the Russians lost one of their 240mm mortars the other day. That gun has 1/2 the range of a 155mm gun and has a long set up and break down time, so they have to get to suicidally short range to fire and once they fire they are sitting ducks.

Maybe we should send Russia them some more of those. /s

 

[Webeevdrivers]

On the bottom of the screen of our local news channel there is a scrolling headline type thing. Every 5 minutes or so they are showing a headline indicating that Russia is recruiting an additional 350,000 troops. Did they slip a decimal point or something or is this old news?

 

[Unclepaul]

Typically Russia does not quit fighting because they are low on ammo or guns. They tend to fight to the end. That is their personality and strategy.

They will not quit shelling because they are low on ammo and guns. They will only quit fighting when they are OUT of Ammo and Guns.

Even after losing Wars, they tend to hold grudges for generations. They will trade with you, but always want to get their revenge.

Kind of like how terrorists fight with a vengeance, but get very passive and appologetic when they are discovered and thwarted.

This War is not being fought to eliminate Russia, but to defang them. Take them out of the World Domination game.Reduce them as a threat.

Everybody still wants to buy their cheap oil/gas/food.

 

[cusetownusa]

the USD/RUB has closed above 100 again. Lets see if they do whatever it takes to push back below 100 or if it continues to rise.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Typically Russia does not quit fighting because they are low on ammo or guns. They tend to fight to the end. That is their personality and strategy.

They will not quit shelling because they are low on ammo and guns. They will only quit fighting when they are OUT of Ammo and Guns.

Even after losing Wars, they tend to hold grudges for generations. They will trade with you, but always want to get their revenge.

Kind of like how terrorists fight with a vengeance, but get very passive and appologetic when they are discovered and thwarted.

This War is not being fought to eliminate Russia, but to defang them. Take them out of the World Domination game.Reduce them as a threat.

Everybody still wants to buy their cheap oil/gas/food.

While I feel you are correct, this is incredibly sad to read. Win and lose millions of lives, lose and lose millions more

 

[Tiger]

I was arguing for this early in the war. Virtue signalling Europe banned Russians from travelling to Europe to show that they are against Russia, instead they should have given Russians a special permanent visas for anyone will skills in military, industrial production, it, police etc. Not saying they should be allowed to work in safety critical jobs and spy, but at least be allowed do work with other jobs.

Timing might actually be better now, that the ruski mir climate has waned a bit, reality setting in.

 

[madodel]

While I feel you are correct, this is incredibly sad to read. Win and lose millions of lives, lose and lose millions more

Russia's history is written in the blood of the 10's of millions that were sent to the slaughter.