Russia/Ukraine conflict

[DanCar]

My Russian brother in law believes this to be true. He says he has some kind of insider info. I'm dubious until they start with the ballerina on TV.

Here We Go Again - Another 'Report' of Putin's Death Triggers More Media Speculation

A few days after reports that the Russian President had suffered cardiac arrest were declared fake the same source said this time that the dictator had died - with predictable results.

www.kyivpost.com

 

[wdolson]

My Russian brother in law believes this to be true. He says he has some kind of insider info. I'm dubious until they start with the ballerina on TV.

Here We Go Again - Another 'Report' of Putin's Death Triggers More Media Speculation

A few days after reports that the Russian President had suffered cardiac arrest were declared fake the same source said this time that the dictator had died - with predictable results.

www.kyivpost.com

I'm with you on this one. The guy is going to die someday, everyone is mortal, but I'm skeptical of anything coming out of Russia until we have some objective proof.

 

[SwTslaGrl]

Today's rule from “Murphy’s laws of Combat”

27. Try to look unimportant. The enemy may be low on ammo.


Source: UPPDATERAS: Omfattande flygbombning mot Chersonregionen - skyhöga ryska förluster

 

[AudubonB]

Today's rule from “Murphy’s laws of Combat”

27. Try to look unimportant. The enemy may be low on ammo.


Source: UPPDATERAS: Omfattande flygbombning mot Chersonregionen - skyhöga ryska förluster

Need a little help here…..

 

[SwTslaGrl]

Need a little help here…..

I think it means when low on ammo they only shoot high priority targets, not unimportant ones.

 

[DayTrippin]

Haven't seen confirmation anywhere else, but if accurate, this would be a bad thing for any Ukrainian aircraft. It would have implications for the F35 as well.

Ukraine’s Sudden High Air Losses Likely Caused By New Russian Missiles

Guest Post by Moon of Alabama I am not sure how valid this is but I am sure it is relevant: Victor vicktop55 @vicktop55 – 16:58 UTC · Oct 24, 2023Military expert Vladislav Shurygin: The Penta…

www.theburningplatform.com

 

[Buckminster]

Could this be from North Korea?
Pongae-6 - Wikipedia mentions radar but they could have a variant

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

Haven't seen confirmation anywhere else, but if accurate, this would be a bad thing for any Ukrainian aircraft. It would have implications for the F35 as well.

Ukraine’s Sudden High Air Losses Likely Caused By New Russian Missiles

Guest Post by Moon of Alabama I am not sure how valid this is but I am sure it is relevant: Victor vicktop55 @vicktop55 – 16:58 UTC · Oct 24, 2023Military expert Vladislav Shurygin: The Penta…

www.theburningplatform.com

So what are the sources here?

Some Russian site, and one article about one downed UKR aircraft in Euroasiantimes (that I didn't click on)...

And that "theburningplatform.com" doesn't exactly 'scream' credible...

My guess is that this is just another outlet for the Russian Dictator's misinformation propaganda. So more lies basically.

 

[Dangerous Fish]

Here's a small excerpt from the Russian MOD website where they post regular updates on their "SMO". This is supposedly just in the last week:

"... 208 Ukrainian UAVs have been shot down, along with 19 HIMARS and four Uragan projectiles, two ATACMS operational-tactical missiles, two Neptune anti-ship missiles, six HARM anti-radiation missiles, eight JDAM guided bombs, and one S-200 converted surface-to-surface missile over the past week.
Since 1 October 2023, Russia's fighter jets and air defence systems have shot down 31 airplanes and three helicopters: 20 MiG-29 airplanes, eight Su-25 ground-attack aircraft, one Su-24 bomber, two L-39 jet trainers, and three Mi-8 helicopters of Ukrainian Air Force."

Have a look through at the numbers and tell me if you think they're plausible. I know what I think.

https://eng.mil.ru/en/special_operation/news.htm

Putin will be getting his information from there, in a folder presented to him by his sycophants. He doesn't scan the public domain in search of the truth. He wouldn't like to read the truth.

I'd suggest it's Russian propaganda aimed at the impending F-16 deliveries. Hopefully it's because they'll be arriving soon.

 

[madodel]

Here's a small excerpt from the Russian MOD website where they post regular updates on their "SMO". This is supposedly just in the last week:

"... 208 Ukrainian UAVs have been shot down, along with 19 HIMARS and four Uragan projectiles, two ATACMS operational-tactical missiles, two Neptune anti-ship missiles, six HARM anti-radiation missiles, eight JDAM guided bombs, and one S-200 converted surface-to-surface missile over the past week.
Since 1 October 2023, Russia's fighter jets and air defence systems have shot down 31 airplanes and three helicopters: 20 MiG-29 airplanes, eight Su-25 ground-attack aircraft, one Su-24 bomber, two L-39 jet trainers, and three Mi-8 helicopters of Ukrainian Air Force."

Have a look through at the numbers and tell me if you think they're plausible. I know what I think.

https://eng.mil.ru/en/special_operation/news.htm

Putin will be getting his information from there, in a folder presented to him by his sycophants. He doesn't scan the public domain in search of the truth. He wouldn't like to read the truth.

I'd suggest it's Russian propaganda aimed at the impending F-16 deliveries. Hopefully it's because they'll be arriving soon.

Apparently several HIMARs were stopped by the actual SAM vehicles, and the drones by the vaunted T54 tanks. Surprised they aren't claiming F-16 and F-35s taken out as well.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

My guess would be that this is more lies from the Russian Dictator. The question is however if the Dictator is planning on using this lie as some sort of 'excuse' for attacking a nuclear facility in UKR...

Russia accuses Ukraine of damaging nuclear waste storage facility with drone strike

A Ukrainian drone crashed into a nuclear waste storage facility at the Kursk power plant in western Russia on Thursday, damaging its walls, Russia's foreign ministry said on Saturday, calling on other…

www.france24.com

On the other hand it seems like the Russian Dictator has threatened to do stuff like this I don't now how many times, and as far as I'm aware nothing has happened...

 

[iPlug]

“FrankenSAM” systems are being put into place in Ukraine this Fall.

What is “FrankenSAM”? Turns out Ukraine and Western countries have lots of legacy odds and ends of radars, missiles, and launchers (Soviet and Western origin). The U.S. has taken a cue from the Ukrainians and their “MacGyver” cleverness and have been cobbling these together and integrating them into modern/existing air defense systems with quite good results.

Ukraine will be better prepared for the anticipated attacks on their civilian power and heating grids this winter from Russia.



https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/28/...e_code=1.6Ew.L0aX.ktYbA2A9Yf8m&smid=url-share

 

[wdolson]

Haven't seen confirmation anywhere else, but if accurate, this would be a bad thing for any Ukrainian aircraft. It would have implications for the F35 as well.

Ukraine’s Sudden High Air Losses Likely Caused By New Russian Missiles

Guest Post by Moon of Alabama I am not sure how valid this is but I am sure it is relevant: Victor vicktop55 @vicktop55 – 16:58 UTC · Oct 24, 2023Military expert Vladislav Shurygin: The Penta…

www.theburningplatform.com

If true it's bad news for the F-16s. This article claims the US Pentagon is worried about the F-35's survivability. This from what appears to be a Russian source.

Even if there is a new air defense system that is taking out the old Soviet aircraft in the Ukrainian AF, I doubt the Pentagon is all that concerned about the F-35's chances.

Any weapon's system is going to be guided by either radar or heat signature. The old Soviet aircraft have both a large radar cross section and a high heat signature. The F-35 is a very small radar target and also has a small heat signature.

An F-16C has a radar cross signature of 1.2 sqm, a MiG-21 has a signature of 3 sqm, and Su-27 is 15 sqm. An F-35 is 0.005 sqm, ie 5 mm^3, a bird is around 0.01 sqm. On radar a radar guided missile is more likely to lock onto a bird flying in the area than an F-35.

Radar Cross Section (RCS)

The fact the article claims the Pentagon is worried about the F-35's survivability tells me this is likely Russian propaganda.

So what are the sources here?

Some Russian site, and one article about one downed UKR aircraft in Euroasiantimes (that I didn't click on)...

And that "theburningplatform.com" doesn't exactly 'scream' credible...

My guess is that this is just another outlet for the Russian Dictator's misinformation propaganda. So more lies basically.

I found similar stories, but all from dubious sources such as
Newly delivered systems downed 24 planes in five days, Russia says

I saw the EuraianTimes article too. One thing that strikes me about this is every source is reporting different kill numbers. It's like a bunch of Kremlin associated reporters have been playing a game of telephone and the numbers got distorted in each telling.

I'm with most of you that I'm dubious about it's truth.

 

[DayTrippin]

One thing I've learned about Russia. I wouldn't rule out their technical capabilities. Often, it is offset by corruption but they have a lot of brilliant engineers. Best not to forget that they were the first in space. They are also good at espionage but likely lag behind the Chinese currently. They had a major hand in the space station as well. They sometimes take a different path than the West does and sometimes it pans out, sometimes it doesn't.

Interesting article here.

The Fall and Rise of Russian Electronic Warfare

As the Russian invasion of Ukraine turns into a grinding slog, Russian electronic-warfare units have begun playing higher-profile roles

spectrum.ieee.org

This one was from a few years ago but has good insight.

https://news.usni.org/2014/07/29/chinese-russian-radars-track-see-u-s-stealth

 

[wdolson]

One thing I've learned about Russia. I wouldn't rule out their technical capabilities. Often, it is offset by corruption but they have a lot of brilliant engineers. Best not to forget that they were the first in space. They are also good at espionage but likely lag behind the Chinese currently. They had a major hand in the space station as well. They sometimes take a different path than the West does and sometimes it pans out, sometimes it doesn't.

Interesting article here.

The Fall and Rise of Russian Electronic Warfare

As the Russian invasion of Ukraine turns into a grinding slog, Russian electronic-warfare units have begun playing higher-profile roles

spectrum.ieee.org

This one was from a few years ago but has good insight.

https://news.usni.org/2014/07/29/chinese-russian-radars-track-see-u-s-stealth

The Soviet/Russian education system started to fall apart in the 1980s. Since then they have not been cranking out as many people with the science and technical skills as they once did. Their recent attempt to do a landing on the Moon was headed up by a 90 year old who had worked on the Sputnik program in the 1950s.

Russia still has technical skills. The bulk of their talent are in their 50s or later though. Among the younger talent, there is some but they don't have enough to span the entire spectrum of technologies, so their technical expertise is hit and miss.

It is possible that Russia has developed a new SAM or a new variant of the R-37 with more range and accuracy. It's also possible the stories are more Russian propaganda and it's all fake news. I give it about 75% odds it's fake news.

If the story is true, we will be hearing something from a more reliable source soon. There are lots of OSINT people in the west constantly looking at this information. One thing that's telling is the OSINT community especially Orynx tries to capture every picture of a confirmed loss for both sides and there have been no increase in pictures of confirmed Ukrainian losses. If the planes went down over Russian held territory there would definitely be pictures. The Ukrainians are better at controlling release of pictures of their losses, but if over 30 Ukrainian planes had been lost in two weeks, there would almost certainly be some pictures out by now.

The Ukrainians have been forthcoming about the aircraft they lost to drone attacks on the ground in the last month.

 

[BitJam]

Let's talk about rumor about Ukrainian aid.... [being sent to Palestine]

Apparently there was a bunch of (faux?) outrage sparked by faux rumors that American arms sent to Ukraine ended up in Palestine. Beau says this will become a self-fulfilling fantasy because Russian intelligence agents are now highly motivated to ship any US arms captured in Ukraine to Palestine in order fuel the anti-Ukraine outrage.

IMO the pro-Putin, pro-chaos faction in the US and the US government is pretty disgusting. Reminds me of the pro-Hitler movement in the US prior to our entry into WW-2.

I'm also reminded of the life-ruining outrage drummed up by Senator Joseph McCarthy where, oddly enough, I find some hope. An amazed television audience watched as Joseph Welch (a lawyer hired by the US Army) ended McCarthy's career with these words:

Until this moment, Senator, I think I never really gauged your cruelty or your recklessness. [...] Let us not assassinate this lad further, senator. You have done enough. Have you no sense of decency?​

​

The article goes on to say that McCarthy's popularity evaporated overnight. He was censured by his colleagues in the Senate, ostracized by his own party, and ignored by the press.

There is no guarantee but it's possible, every now and then, for the shrill, outraged part of the American public to wake up from their cruel, propaganda induced fantasies.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

Naftogaz is a Ukrainian company.


24 Oktober 2023

Ukraine plans to end Russian gas transit contract in 2024 – interview for Deutsche Welle​

Naftogaz CEO Oleksiy Chernyshov says Ukraine “cannot extend” the current contract with Russia for gas transit to the EU, which is due to expire at the end of 2024. He has called upon the European Union to expedite the process of completely abandoning Russian gas supplies. [...

https://www.naftogaz.com/en/interviews/ukraine-will-not-extend-gas-transit-contract-with-russia-interview-deutsche-welle

 

[DayTrippin]

Interesting vid about possible support of Ukraine from Israel due to Russia's support of Hamas.

 

[Buckminster]

So Mike Johnson played MAGA and is pro Ukraine funding after all??

https://twitter.com/x/status/1718682890257768504

Even though he voted against previously.

 

[Quagmire2]

Wouldn't interpret that as played MAGA and is Pro Ukraine funding. Just there will be no tying Israel funding with Ukraine funding. They will be separate.

But no guarantees that he will bring a Ukraine bill up for a vote.