Russia/Ukraine conflict

[iPlug]

It's concerning the the west has no motivator for ultra high volume production of cheap drones with AI. This is clearly going to be a paradigm shift in terms of cost vs effectiveness.

Would argue the jury is out on this. Certainly we have not seen a massive amount, yet.

Drones seems to be the immediate future major developmental change of waging war. Drones are rapidly becoming more sophisticated (mechanics, weight, telemetry, AI), cheaper to manufacture, higher payloads, more range, etc.

There are a lot of players around the world working on this aggressively. We see much development and production with axis countries (Russia, China, Iran, et. al). But the U.S. remains a leader, particularly in the most sophisticated drones. What is particularly interesting at the moment is Israel who is also a major player and leading exporter produces drones across the spectrum of costs/capabilities. Now that they are seeing the axis countries for what they are, they will probably share/export tech to Ukraine. Ukraine itself is doing a lot of R&D and scaling.

It's going to be a long war and drones will become ever more key players. The West has tremendous resources and most of the world GDP, so the long game favors the West if their resources are applied.

 

[Tiger]

Things break down quickly when nation states openly start using targeted assignations (you basically become Russia).

Wonder if Mossad is going to do some unstabilizing operations in Russia and how it might affect Ukraine

https://twitter.com/x/status/1719040881058267640

 

[iPlug]

Israel is the leader in small drone capabilities and is likely using them at the moment in Gaza. It's not hard to imagine they may share some of their tech with Ukraine in the near future and allow mass manufacture under license.

Israel has a number of small AI-enabled drones that can navigate in spaces challenging for humans including indoor spaces with sensors that can detect life, armed adversaries, and weapons stations and in GPS/GNSS-denied environments…carry weapons, act as kamikazes with explosive charges or physically pick-up detected improvised explosive devices (IEDs) for clearance operations and disposal...


Small AI-Enabled Drones Could Be First Into Gaza Streets And Buildings

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1719040329574396370

Combined with the drone news.

And what exactly is it Sacks suggests here?...

That Swedish author that has been posting blogs about the war since day one is advocating for that the Democratic West needs to do more to ensure that UKR will win. He is advocating for a coalition of the willing stepping in and securing the western part of UKR with boots on the ground. That will make it necessary to also set up a no fly zone over the same western part of UKR. That in turn would free up large amounts of UKR forces and resources that UKR can use to drive the Dictator's serfs out of the now occupied parts of UKR.

Source – the same blog post as I posted earlier today (in Swedish):

UPPDATERAS: Hård situation för Ukraina på flera platser, kritiskt läge, Västs stöd för klent och för sent - ryska FPV-drönare allvarligt hot - lynchmobb jagar judar i Ryssland

Situationen är mycket hård för Ukraina på flera platser längs fronten och läget kan lokalt vara kritiskt. Västs stöd har varit för klent och kommit för sent och även hela ukrainska brigader kan de facto vara utplånade. Ryska FPV-drönare är ett allvarligt och stigande hot, där ryssarna redan har till

cornucopia.se

 

[bobby g]

WordMavenMusings -

"Sappers" originated as those who sapped, or weakened, the strength of their enemies' positions by tunneling under their fortifications - up to and definitely including castle walls. Perilous indeed, as solidity of such tunnel - most particularly when reaching, e.g., that castle wall - was not a priority.

Now that it means, inter alia, one who explores for and deactivates land mines, it similarly designates one with a diminished life expectancy.

Thus the Musing: I wonder if that is where the slang term "a sap" comes from? My etymology sources are silent on this.

On edit, so as not to continue this offtopicnessmenthoodship with a separate post:

“sapper” is NOT a backformation of “sap”. Rather, it comes from the French sapeur, meaning to dig. I’ll still maintain my proposal that the synonym for “a sucker”: “a sap”, derives from those gullible, naive or dutybound enough to take on that suicidal task.

Sappers would tunnel and shore. When enough of each, they'd set fire to the shoring, exit and watch the castle/fortress walls fall down.

 

[bobby g]

Haha, Forrest Gump was no sapper. He was 11Bravo, groundpounder MOS (Combat Infantry, Light Weapons).

Sappers would be what, combat engineers or EOD?

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1719096515053093367

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

The entire article in Time is here:

Inside Volodymyr Zelensky’s Struggle to Keep Ukraine in the Fight

“Nobody believes in our victory like I do. Nobody,” Zelensky told TIME in an interview after his trip to Washington, D.C.

time.com

 

[wdolson]

Florida, Louisiana,Texas, North and South Carolina, and Georgia have a combined coastline of 2700 miles. Gaza's coastline is 25 miles.
I think the IDF can shut down weapons smuggling by sea into Gaza.

The US has an entire branch of service to guard and protect its coastline. The Israelis don't have a dedicated coast guard. The IDF has 38 coastal patrol boats to patrol Israel's coastline plus Gaza's.

The density of ships and boats in the region is very high
MEDITERRANEAN SEA Ship Traffic Live Map | Marine Vessel Traffic

The Gulf of Mexico actually has lighter traffic
GULF OF MEXICO Ship Traffic Live Map | Marine Vessel Traffic

It's easy to slip through a crowd. Smugglers could also land their cargo in Egypt and smuggle it across the Gaza border. Bribing the border guards is always on the table too.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1719040329574396370

Combined with the drone news.

David Sacks is a low quality source for information IMO.

 

[jabloomf1230]

David Sacks is a low quality source for information IMO.

David Sacks is a low quality source for information IMO.

I fixed that for you. Why do people here keep quoting him?

 

[AudubonB]

Come on, people.
We do not need any discussion of an Israeli (non) Coast Guard in this thread, or anywhere else I can envision on TMC.

Leave it.

 

[madodel]

David Sacks is a low quality source for information IMO.

I fixed that for you. Why do people here keep quoting him?

He spews what they want to hear.

 

[Fred42]

Is there currently no efforts at all ongoing for getting more US aid through the US Congress?

This seems to suggest otherwise...

McConnell, Speaker Johnson headed for shutdown clash over Ukraine

Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) and newly elected Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) are headed for a showdown over emergency funding for Ukraine and funding the government beyond Thanksgi…

thehill.com

There are motivated and key House Republicans who oppose funding, and without House support there's no funding. But about half the Republican caucus supports funding, along with almost all Democrats, and the Senate supports funding. Who knows what deal might be cut, but the opponents can hold this up indefinitely if that is their top priority.

 

[wdolson]

There are motivated and key House Republicans who oppose funding, and without House support there's no funding. But about half the Republican caucus supports funding, along with almost all Democrats, and the Senate supports funding. Who knows what deal might be cut, but the opponents can hold this up indefinitely if that is their top priority.

There is a way that a majority can force a vote on a bill on the House floor. Normally the Speaker is the gate keeper for bills though.

It's called a Discharge Petition. A handful of Republicans with the Democrats could force a vote on the Senate funding bill.
Legislative Process 101—Discharge Petitions

 

[Artful Dodger]

Sappers would be what, combat engineers or EOD?

Combat engineer. US Army MOS is 12-Bravo.



Chimo!

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

According to UKR, the Russian Dictator has now managed to rack up more than 300,000 Dead serfs.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1719234557361176743

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

My German isn’t that good, but according to this German source, The Russian Dictator has now allegedly blocked 167 VPN services and 200 e-mail providers to prevent Russians from accessing content deemed unsuitable by the Dictator and to prevent communication with other countries countries. The Dictator’s lies to justify this is that they supposedly are threats to "stability, security and integrity". The Dictator has also blocked 590,000 information sites.

The Dictator not only blocked VPN services of specific IP numbers, but entire protocols such as OpenVPN, IKEv2 and Wireguard, regardless of which IP address these ’are run against’.

Golem.de: IT-News für Profis

www.golem.de

 

[Surfer of Life]

According to UKR, the Russian Dictator has now managed to rack up more than 300,000 Dead serfs.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1719234557361176743

+21 tanks
+29 APVs
+25 artillery systems
+10 (!) MLRS
+3 AD systems
+21 UAVs
+2 cruise missiles

-This enormous loss rate of significant tools of war can’t be sustainable for Putin but for so much longer, can it?

Though the loss comparison for Russia vs. Ukraine never seems to mention that the things Russia loses are mediocre, obsolete weapons & personnel, while Ukraine’s are modern, well maintained, and well trained people.

The following communication blockages reek of hopeless desperation on Russia’s part, IMHO:

My German isn’t that good, but according to this German source, The Russian Dictator has now allegedly blocked 167 VPN services and 200 e-mail providers to prevent Russians from accessing content deemed unsuitable by the Dictator and to prevent communication with other countries countries. The Dictator’s lies to justify this is that they supposedly are threats to "stability, security and integrity". The Dictator has also blocked 590,000 information sites.

The Dictator not only blocked VPN services of specific IP numbers, but entire protocols such as OpenVPN, IKEv2 and Wireguard, regardless of which IP address these ’are run against’.

Golem.de: IT-News für Profis

www.golem.de

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

Paywall.

Russian oligarch Alexei Kuzmichev held by French police

Sanctions-hit billionaire’s properties in Paris and southern France searched

www.ft.com

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

When North Korea sends more than half a million artillery shells to the Russian Dictator (or whatever the number is), is China backfilling North Korean artillery shell stocks?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1719379856427761688