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Russia/Ukraine conflict

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-This enormous loss rate of significant tools of war can’t be sustainable for Putin but for so much longer, can it?
I am hearing high losses from both sides and progress seems to have stalled. My feeling is that one side will break soon, it's hard to judge which side it is. I will give Sacks/Musk some cred for being right about the lack of Ukraine advancement over the last year. Maybe this will change soon and they will be proven wrong, maybe support for Ukraine runs out and Russia wins the war and they are proven right.

So sad that so many lives are lost in the pointless war. And so crazy that we have Russian's and Chinese on different internets that the rest of us. That so many powerful nations are run to autocrats who have made themselves into effective dictators. That the free world is weak in a time of uncertainty. I greatly fear how the next wars will look like when AI and drone warfare plays a larger and larger role. Very glad that Tesla is owned by a western company...
 

Ukrainian family of nine shot dead in their sleep in Russian-occupied Donetsk

By Yulia Kesaieva and Kathleen Magramo, CNN
Published 12:25 AM EDT, Tue October 31, 2023

Kyiv, Ukraine CNN — A family of nine, including two young children, were found shot dead in their home in the Russian-occupied eastern Ukrainian town of Volnovakha in a slaying that has sparked outrage in Ukraine and triggered investigations by both nations.

Images from the Ukrainian Donetsk Region Prosecutor’s Office showed a horrific murder scene of multiple family members shot while in their beds, still tucked in each others arms, with blood spatters visible on the walls.

Ukraine alleges the family were slain by Russian occupying forces following an argument [...


 
When North Korea sends more than half a million artillery shells to the Russian Dictator (or whatever the number is), is China backfilling North Korean artillery shell stocks?

That is a big risk for Ukr as their stocks deplete and Ru’s stays steady/increases again.

My worry is that the madness of Ru-Xi-North Korea has more staying power than what we will ultimately see from the West.
 
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...I will give Sacks/Musk some cred for being right about the lack of Ukraine advancement over the last year....
One should not.

Ukraine has made large territorial gains, pushing Russia out of a vast part of the Black Sea and reopened their grain corridor. Crimea is no safe haven and becoming less so by the month.
 
That is a big risk for Ukr as their stocks deplete and Ru’s stays steady/increases again.

My worry is that the madness of Ru-Xi-North Korea has more staying power than what we will ultimately see from the West.

Things are not great for Ukraine at the moment, but Russia doesn't have the ability to win. Western supply declining would just drag out the war.
 
$24Bn is a drop in the ocean compared to the cleanup that US will end up paying the lions share of. It will be interesting watching how the media keep that quiet post Biden given that nearly all the other candidates are already playing nicely with Elon and therefore X.

At what point will the west realise that Russia keeping the land would save them those costs?

Difficult to see a path to peace without the west stepping up with more weapons ($200Bn needs to be spent and weapons provided and used in Spring/summer 2025 to start to mirror US building 4.5 ships per day peak in WWII). Russia are not sufficiently threatened. The longer Russia hold onto the land, the less they are likely to give up in a treaty. Winter is coming so it will be another year before either side progresses (if at all) right on election season.
I'm sticking to my summer 25 plan. By then, the US economy will be able to provide more. A serious attack (with a serious threat of much more to come) is needed in order to get Putin to the bargaining table. Zelensky will probably be gone (yeah I know that seems unlikely now but just wait).
 
Ukraine has made large territorial gains, pushing Russia out of a vast part of the Black Sea and reopened their grain corridor. Crimea is no safe haven and becoming less so by the month.

Agreed. One should not grade the counter-offensive by ground regained, but in Russian armour lost. When Putin is fielding T-34s against M-2 Bradley's armed with chain-guns and TOW, then the gains will come.

In the meantime, I'd like to see automated (AI) close-in anti-drone weapons mounted on armoured vehicles rather than the ineffective 'cope' cages. Let's field a shot-gun armed skeet-shooter that never sleeps, and sees in IR.

As is always the case in the techology struggle, it's guns vs. armour: Time to enhance protection w. active armour.
 
Not really surprised by this but sad to read anyway. Corruption is just running rampant and likely a lot of aid dollars are being siphoned off.

I thought a little about this, and here is what I don't get about this 'corruption angle':...

Ok... So it seems like there is X amount of corruption in UKR. But everyone just seems to think that nothing can be done about this.

If someone somehow got hold of money through corruption, then why don't the Ukrianian state just get that F-ing money back?!?

The article in Time talks about "Reznikov's eggs" as an example. Ok. So somebody over-charged the UKR army for eggs. Why don't they just make some Wartime law that says that if you overcharge for something, then that contract you made or had or whatever IS VOID. AND make that law apply RETROACTIVELY! If you overcharged then the Ukrainian state are just going to take back the money that you are not entitled to! AND they will FINE you! AND you will GO TO JAIL, or get some other appropriate punishment!

Seriously... Why is this even a problem?
 
Agreed. One should not grade the counter-offensive by ground regained, but in Russian armour lost. When Putin is fielding T-34s against M-2 Bradley's armed with chain-guns and TOW, then the gains will come.

In the meantime, I'd like to see automated (AI) close-in anti-drone weapons mounted on armoured vehicles rather than the ineffective 'cope' cages. Let's field a shot-gun armed skeet-shooter that never sleeps, and sees in IR.

As is always the case in the techology struggle, it's guns vs. armour: Time to enhance protection w. active armour.

People have been working on these systems. Completely autonomous AI driven weapons systems have a lot of risks. You don't want a vehicle that automatically shoots down any drone it sees because there will be a lot of friendly drones around.

But the Russian Terminator BTR is a development in this direction. It's designed to neutralize threats to tanks. They only built about a dozen of them and can't build anymore because they are completely dependent on western electronics. They have had some success in Ukraine, but there are too few of them to make a difference and the Ukrainians have taken a few of them out.

The T-90 was supposed to have tech that identifies enemy threats and engages them, but they have fared worse than the Terminators.

The US has been working on this sort of tech for decades and they still don't have anything ready for production yet. Most of the work has been concentrating on threats from more established technologies like ATGM teams, conventional aircraft, etc., adding drones to the mix is just another battlefield threat.

It's not tech that will see much deployment in this war, but work on these technologies will be ongoing.

This war has demonstrated that drones are here to stay and they will be a major component for future warfare. Countering them is going to be a major technology area in the coming years too.
 
I don’t know. It’s fairly clear that the next US president will be Donald Trump. Every poll is indicating that. At minimum he will give zero support to Ukraine but very possibly may even enter the war on the side of Russia and North Korea. Will NATO countries even consider aid to Ukraine after 2025 if they are essentially fighting the US even if it is only that the US is giving aid to Russia? I doubt it. The world will be forever changed in 2025.

Jmho.

The polling is out of whack. Almost every special election in the last year has swung 9-11 points more Democratic than the polls and other measures expected. There is also a good chance Trump will be disqualified from running under the 14th Amendment. There are a number of court cases about this in court right now. The trial on the most high profile of these cases started Monday.

Having an extremist win in 2024 is not out of the realm of possibility in the US, but it's far from certain. Unfortunately that is a problem with a two party system. A fluke election could put someone very unqualified in power.

A destabilized US would set off a lot of problems around the world. North Korea and China would see it as an opportunity to pull off attacks they have been wanting to do, and Europe would be keeping its powder dry to deal with uncertainty. That is probably the most likely scenario that would lead to the next world war.
 
The polling is out of whack. Almost every special election in the last year has swung 9-11 points more Democratic than the polls and other measures expected. There is also a good chance Trump will be disqualified from running under the 14th Amendment. There are a number of court cases about this in court right now. The trial on the most high profile of these cases started Monday.

Having an extremist win in 2024 is not out of the realm of possibility in the US, but it's far from certain. Unfortunately that is a problem with a two party system. A fluke election could put someone very unqualified in power.

A destabilized US would set off a lot of problems around the world. North Korea and China would see it as an opportunity to pull off attacks they have been wanting to do, and Europe would be keeping its powder dry to deal with uncertainty. That is probably the most likely scenario that would lead to the next world war.
Agreed. The polls right now basically say that the people who answer polls are relatively uninspired by either candidate. They say nothing about how those people and everyone else (the vast majority) will actually vote over a year from now.
 
Agreed. The polls right now basically say that the people who answer polls are relatively uninspired by either candidate. They say nothing about how those people and everyone else (the vast majority) will actually vote over a year from now.
Who takes surveys anyway?

This is probably an egregious extrapolation of my attitude and experiences, but... anyone with a life, a schedule, and plural number of brain cells hangs up on or refuses survey calls (and/or you're cordless and have your phone set to block unknown calls) because we lump them into scams and spam. I have no idea who takes surveys any more. I don't even send in the ones I get in email from organizations I support because 1) they're thinly disguised excuses to get you to write another check; 2) nobody would trust a survey that was conducted by an organization that has an agenda.

We've had so many similar discussions about the reliability of Russian surveys (and elections). So glad the internet made information, insightful news and truth so freely available around the world that we can all be rational and reasonable. /s
 
Who takes surveys anyway?

This is probably an egregious extrapolation of my attitude and experiences, but... anyone with a life, a schedule, and plural number of brain cells hangs up on or refuses survey calls (and/or you're cordless and have your phone set to block unknown calls) because we lump them into scams and spam. I have no idea who takes surveys any more. I don't even send in the ones I get in email from organizations I support because 1) they're thinly disguised excuses to get you to write another check; 2) nobody would trust a survey that was conducted by an organization that has an agenda.

We've had so many similar discussions about the reliability of Russian surveys (and elections). So glad the internet made information, insightful news and truth so freely available around the world that we can all be rational and reasonable. /s

We still have a land line. It's an Ooma account (VOIP) that only costs something like $3 a month so I keep it. The phone almost never rings and when it does it's almost always a pollster. I've taken a number of polls who found me that way. Some of them have been poorly designed and it was impossible to give an answer in line with my actual opinions.

I'm a rarity still having a land line. Most remaining land lines are businesses.

I've had a few polling calls on my cell too, but my cell phone number is tied to my partner's account (she's had a wireless account so long they give her an insane deal to stay with them so I don't think I could get a cheaper cell number on my own). When someone calls my number asking for her, it's almost always a pollster, sometimes a charity. The pollsters looking for someone specific usually won't poll me so I fall through the cracks there.

A lot of Gen Z still have accounts tied to their parents, so pollsters calling cell numbers to try and get Gen Z opinions are going to be calling in their parent's names and won't poll them. A lot of Millennials and Gen Z don't like talking on the phone, they will only text or use some other messaging app.

I also get various surveys in the mail or electronically. A lot of those are fake polls that are designed to generate certain results. They are the polling equivalent of fake news.

I think we have a pretty destabilized US right now with Biden clearly suffering from age, a weak and unpopular Vice President, and all the unprecedented litigation against Trump that is radicalizing his followers. Russia, Iran and Hamas are clearly taking advantage of the current destabilized situation in the US.

I am not a Trump fan and don't think he could win again in 2024, but could use some of that international stability we had from 2016-2020 during Trump's term. Trump's team should also be given more credit for the Abraham Accords which might still be the one thing to keep the Arab/Israeli conflict from spiraling into something much bigger.

A lot of people seem to believe Biden is senile. He has a disability called aphasia which is related to the therapy he went through to overcome his stutter. Frequently former stutterers develop aphasia. The wrong word comes out of their mouth or they stumble over words when they realize too late the wrong word is about to come out of their mouth.

I have dyslexia related aphasia so I know the phenomenon first hand (my dyslexia is mild, but I do rely on spell check a lot!)

Biden is old, but he's a very healthy 80. He has been extremely effective getting big bills through Congress with tiny majorities in both houses. People who follow how the sausage is made have been stunned at his skill in wrangling Congress. He also pulled together a weak NATO and got most marching in the same direction to help Ukraine within days of the start of the war. He's working now to try and help Israel eliminate Hamas while keeping civilian casualties down.

Some people are not going to agree with Biden's politics. I don't agree with everything he's done. But the whole "he's too old" thing is growing tiresome.

Age is just a number. Some people are completely knackered at 80, but others are still healthy and capable. The year my father turned 80 we went down to California to visit my parents and my partner was taking an interest in one of my father's pictures on the wall. He was a photographer and he had a lot of art photos from around the area where he lived. He told us he'd take us to the spot the next day. He didn't tell us it was about a mile hike up and down several hills. I'm 46 years younger than he was and I found it hard to keep up with him. My partner who has life long nerve damage from a severe allergic reaction was having even more trouble keeping up.

He lived to 100 and was completely with it mentally until 96. He fell and broke his hip and never completely came back from the surgery, which does happen with elderly surgery unfortunately. He didn't even need a hip replacement. They just put in a rod.

Biden at 80 is possibly more fit than my father was at 80.

Biden's politics is not going to fit with everyone's ideals. But we should be thankful he is president during the Ukraine war. He got on top of the situation very quickly and got things done to help Ukraine. The administration may have been overly cautious about what kind of aid has been provided and there are some valid criticisms there, but again he has been masterful as getting the money to pay for all the aid the US has given Ukraine.

Politics aside, some presidents are very effective at getting things done and some are not. Reagan and both Roosevelts were very effective at getting things done. Reagan and FDR was ideologically just about opposites, but they both accomplished quite a bit in their presidencies.

Carter and Trump again had very different political philosophies, but both were fairly ineffective as president. Neither were very effective at getting anything through Congress. Carter had a Democratic trifecta (presidency and both houses of Congress) for all 4 years of his presidency, but still wasn't able to get much done. Trump had the trifecta for the first two years of his presidency and only one bill of any note made it through that Congress.

I hope I didn't anger the moderator gods with this. Trying to stay factual and not get into partisanship, but I think the myth that Biden is senile needs to be put to rest.
 
The Economist today reported on an interview with Ukraine’s commander-in-chief, General Valery Zaluzhny. Quotes from the article:

“Just like in the first world war we have reached the level of technology that puts us into a stalemate,” he says. The general concludes that it would take a massive technological leap to break the deadlock. “There will most likely be no deep and beautiful breakthrough.”

Russia has lost at least 150,000 dead. In any other country such casualties would have stopped the war.” But not in Russia, where life is cheap and where Mr. Putin’s reference points are in the first and second world wars in which Russia lost tens of millions.

"...the level of our technological development today has put both us and our enemies in a stupor.”
“The simple fact is that we see everything the enemy is doing and they see everything we are doing. In order for us to break this deadlock we need something new, like the gunpowder which the Chinese invented and which we are still using to kill each other,” he says.

General Zaluzhny is desperately trying to prevent the war from settling into the trenches. “The biggest risk of an attritional trench war is that it can drag on for years and wear down the Ukrainian state,” he says.

Crimea, he believes, remains Mr Putin’s greatest vulnerability. It is the linchpin of his imperial restoration project, and his legitimacy rests on having brought it back to Russia.

A collapse in Ukrainian morale and Western support is precisely what Mr Putin is counting on. There is no question in General Zaluzhny’s mind that a long war favours Russia, a country with a population three times and an economy ten times the size of Ukraine’s. “Let’s be honest, it’s a feudal state where the cheapest resource is human life. And for us…the most expensive thing we have is our people,” he says. For now, General Zaluzhny says, he has enough soldiers. But the longer the war goes on, the harder it will be to sustain. “We need to look for this solution, we need to find this gunpowder, quickly master it and use it for a speedy victory. Because sooner or later we are going to find that we simply don’t have enough people to fight.”


TL;DR Ukraine needs a miracle weapon to win, and it is not at hand.

 
Agreed. The polls right now basically say that the people who answer polls are relatively uninspired by either candidate. They say nothing about how those people and everyone else (the vast majority) will actually vote over a year from now.
The people who answer anonymous calls can't be relied on to generate an unbiased polling dataset . Who here answers a call that they don't recognize?