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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
Russia, if there is not one today, is working on preventing an existential crisis by not allowing Ukraine to join NATO. Ukraine joining NATO will be very bad for Russia's security and also economically. They need unfettered land access to Black sea which NATO can cut off anytime if Ukraine becomes a vassal to America.
Russia has every right to claim the Russian speaking regions in that area. None of that should be a concern for US.
Russia will not bat an eyelid to keep waging this war forever even with heavy loss of lives, but Ukraine and the West cannot afford to do that. At some point US will lose the appetite to fund this far, and drop Ukraine like a hot potato. The war will end one day. When the dust settles, two entities will come out victorious - the US war mongers would have made a large bounty, and the Russians would get what they had always asked for (and what was promised to them many times over) , which is no NATO membership for Ukraine. And as a bonus they also get Russian speaking regions formally joining Russia.
The biggest losers will be the people who had a clown as their leader and came to America running for help, when they should never have had an adversarial relationships in the first place with their bigger neighbor with whom they had historical ties.
These are all hard pills to swallow to many 'patriotic' Americans (meaning ones that can't think beyond what the US media puppets gaslights them) who will merrily hit disagrees on this post, but reality is never sweet.
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Vivek says, don't get caught up in little local skirmishes, when the real existential danger for America is China. Do whatever it takes to keep China under control, if it means losing a bit of a ground somewhere else. A US-Europe-Russia-India alliance will keep China out of Taiwan without any bloodshed.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Not even a whiff. China wants to remain a part of the world economy, and won't if they support Russia. Besides, a weaker Russia furthers Chinese territorial claims in the far East.
Ukrainians historically speak primarily Ukrainian, only their prior and current fascist colonial aggressor tries to enforce Russian as their primary language and banish their native Ukrainian.
But more importantly, let's rewrite that as "UK or USA has every right to claim English speaking regions of the world. None of that should be a concern for other nations of the world."
Hmmm. Let's see, vast parts of the world speak English, as either a primary or secondary language. Most countries would have a big problem with that line of thinking.
lolachampcar
Well-Known Member
I'm not even sure where to start.
Texas perhaps (and before you start, one side of my family goes back hundreds of years there so I KNOW of what I write).
You mention gaslighting. This appears to be your goal as you are flatly wrong on the facts. There is a place for this behavior but this thread it not it. It tends to be more fact based.
lolachampcar
Well-Known Member
China would not survive the sanctions placed on Russia; not even a percentage of those sanctions. This alone negates the endless supply assertion.
This is a good interview with an active seasoned UKR commander. It’s not all rosy, but when you combine it with the full interview given by Zaluzhny in The Economist, you can see why UKR is using the strategy it is, and, see the path to winning. Putin’s only hope is that the West gives up. And Putin’s strategy is to prolong the war as long as possible, no matter the cost, and foment as much trouble as possible elsewhere. Contrary to what @Electroman posted, China is watching to see if Putin’s strategy will work. It is imperative that the West doesn’t back off.
Economist interview which I believe was previously posted, but I will put it here for ease of reference. An interview with General Valery Zaluzhny, head of Ukraine’s armed forces
Economist interview which I believe was previously posted, but I will put it here for ease of reference. An interview with General Valery Zaluzhny, head of Ukraine’s armed forces
Dreadnought
Member
I am flabbergasted that you, a long term member of this forum for over a decade, are falling for Putin's propaganda. Has the biased media doublespeak about Tesla, EVs and renewables not taught you how to see through similar patterns of lies and distorted versions of reality that Russia spreads through social media and other channels? There are always the same telltale signs: Logical holes, contradictions and frequent changes to the narrative. First it was Ukrainians fighting to become a part of Russia, then it was about protecting the Russian minority. Then it became a fight against the Nazis and at some point I lost track of the creative justifications for an unprovoked invasion of their neighbor. Among professional liers, they call it "alternative facts", I have heard.
There is no existential threat to Russia and never has been; only Putin's reign has been threatened by a free Ukraine. Sweden and Finland are about to join NATO. Would you argue that these are threats that better be invaded, too? What about those countries that are already members of NATO? Turkey controls the Bosporus. They should probably be subdued first, according to this logic.
Ukraine is a sovereign country. Russia has as much right to claim Russian speaking regions as the US has the right to claim English speaking regions of Canada. But yeah, if that happens, it should not be a concern to Europeans.
You are overestimating Russia's reserves and resolve and you are underestimating Ukraine's determination. For Ukraine, it apparently hasn't been repeated often enough, this war is indeed an existential threat. Everybody is aware of the atrocities that continue to happen in the occupied territories, deported children and loss of the freedom that Ukrainian citizens were willing to die for already back in 2014. I believe Zelensky when he says that they will not throw the towel even if the west would completely stop all support (which will not happen as the EU has even better reasons to stand firmly by Ukraine than the US).
This story of evil America remote controlling Ukraine and all the western democracies has been repeated by Russian propaganda so often that some people have meanwhile accepted it as the truth but I am utterly sick of it. Even more so as it draws a perversely inverted image of the former hegemonic "big brother", now imperialist conqueror who cut all ties and pushed Ukraine further west as the defender.
I am neither American nor patriotic. I am a hardcore fan of democracy, though, and its benefits. As Churchill purportedly said, it's the worst form of government until you looked at all others. It allows us to decide whether one wants to live as a woman or as a man, one does not go to jail for criticising the war or the government to name just a few perks of not being ruled by a dictator. I see Putin as a threat to our liberal society - and there are still a few thousand kilometers between here and Moscow. How much more must Ukrainians worry that all they have been fighting for since the Orange Revolution will be taken away from them? I recommend that you take a moment to imagine how reality in today's Russia or, even worse, occupied Zaporizhia feels like.
The hard pill to swallow is that this war will continue to rage on until Russia finally comes to the realization that they cannot win. Many men, women and a smaller number but still too many children will be among the victims before this is all over. I can equally despise the Russian army and at the same time have pity for the individual who was too poor or too dumb to evade mobilisation or who considered a likely gruesome death the lesser evil compared to another couple of years in a Russian gulag.
There is no existential threat to Russia and never has been; only Putin's reign has been threatened by a free Ukraine. Sweden and Finland are about to join NATO. Would you argue that these are threats that better be invaded, too? What about those countries that are already members of NATO? Turkey controls the Bosporus. They should probably be subdued first, according to this logic.
Ukraine is a sovereign country. Russia has as much right to claim Russian speaking regions as the US has the right to claim English speaking regions of Canada. But yeah, if that happens, it should not be a concern to Europeans.
You are overestimating Russia's reserves and resolve and you are underestimating Ukraine's determination. For Ukraine, it apparently hasn't been repeated often enough, this war is indeed an existential threat. Everybody is aware of the atrocities that continue to happen in the occupied territories, deported children and loss of the freedom that Ukrainian citizens were willing to die for already back in 2014. I believe Zelensky when he says that they will not throw the towel even if the west would completely stop all support (which will not happen as the EU has even better reasons to stand firmly by Ukraine than the US).
This story of evil America remote controlling Ukraine and all the western democracies has been repeated by Russian propaganda so often that some people have meanwhile accepted it as the truth but I am utterly sick of it. Even more so as it draws a perversely inverted image of the former hegemonic "big brother", now imperialist conqueror who cut all ties and pushed Ukraine further west as the defender.
I am neither American nor patriotic. I am a hardcore fan of democracy, though, and its benefits. As Churchill purportedly said, it's the worst form of government until you looked at all others. It allows us to decide whether one wants to live as a woman or as a man, one does not go to jail for criticising the war or the government to name just a few perks of not being ruled by a dictator. I see Putin as a threat to our liberal society - and there are still a few thousand kilometers between here and Moscow. How much more must Ukrainians worry that all they have been fighting for since the Orange Revolution will be taken away from them? I recommend that you take a moment to imagine how reality in today's Russia or, even worse, occupied Zaporizhia feels like.
The hard pill to swallow is that this war will continue to rage on until Russia finally comes to the realization that they cannot win. Many men, women and a smaller number but still too many children will be among the victims before this is all over. I can equally despise the Russian army and at the same time have pity for the individual who was too poor or too dumb to evade mobilisation or who considered a likely gruesome death the lesser evil compared to another couple of years in a Russian gulag.
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If you want to keep posting here, dispense with the denigrating tone.
Othermod: agreed, and I will also mention that deliberately posting misinformation is a no-no (and @Electroman had come close) --ggr
It often is difficult to obtain good hard facts and present dispassionate arguments about what the near-, medium- and long-term prospects are in this conflict. There are, fortunately, a heartening number of posters within this thread, and voices brought in from without, working hard to do that.
It is EXTREMELY easy either to gullibly or by dissimulation present fatuous logic to arrive at misleading or outright horrifyingly false conclusions.
Do not be one of those.
~Vetinari
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I suggest you read up on some military war college text books. Russia does not have the means to occupy Ukraine. Russia is completely incapable of winning this war (in the sense of conquering Ukraine). If the west were to cut off Ukraine they would keep fighting, though casualties would be much higher and the war would become a stalemate.
This was is an existential crisis for two entities: Ukraine and Putin. It isn't for Russia.
Before the war Ukraine was a bi-lingual country with both Ukrainian and Russian spoken pretty much 50/50. Since the war began speaking Russian in Ukraine has become very unfashionable and people who have spoken Russian their entire lives only speak Ukrainian now. Zelensky spoke primarily Russian before the war. According to sources I've read who understand Ukrainian his Ukrainian was terrible early in the war.
The Russian propaganda about Ukraine has been Ukraine isn't really a place, it's really just a break away region of Russia and Russia has every right to take it back. Ukraine is a separate place from Russia with a separate history and separate culture, as well as a separate language. Saying Russia has every right to take Ukraine is like saying Spain has the right to take Portugal. They are two different countries with two different, but related languages, because they are next door to one another there are some cultural similarities, but they are different cultures with different identities. Just like Russia and Ukraine.
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
What "Russia"?!
Russia is a Military Dictatorship! The ~144,4(?) million people living within the Russian borders aren't even allowed to speak a single word of opposition against the Genocide in Ukraine without risking 20 years(!) in prison!
The singular person you are referring to when you use the word "Russia" is the Russian Military Dictator that is committing a Genocide on the Ukrainian people!
Russia: Freedom in the World 2023 Country Report | Freedom House
See the Freedom in the World 2023 score and learn about democracy and freedom in Russia.
Ukraine: Freedom in the World 2022 Country Report | Freedom House
See the Freedom in the World 2022 score and learn about democracy and freedom in Ukraine.
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Eventually they will run out of people to send, and other resources like equipment.
Wasting resources and making poor tactical decisions is never a good idea, especially when the core strategy is flawed.
They are probably going to run out of uniforms, rifles and ammunition before they run out of people, but they will run out of well trained capable soldiers well before that.
Sure they might get smarter and start preserving resources, both sides might increasingly do that, and the war might grind on to a stalemate, but that isn't a winning strategy.
Even if the US stopped backing Ukraine most European nations would continue to back them, some more urgently than others, Ukraine will increasingly become capable of making their own equipment. Israel may decide to start backing Ukraine.
The combined size of the Russian, Iranian and North Korean economies is not that big, their combined industrial capacity can't compete with the capacity of Europe and the UK, especially if Europe and the UK step things up.
China could change things, but there is no sign that they want to be too involved.
Also US support for Ukraine seems to have the support of most Americans, including support from people on both major political parties, in fact it is supported by anyone who believes in freedom and democracy.
That is why Ukraine has so much support worldwide, most people know internationally recognised borders, and the right to freedom from hostile invasion is an important principle, well worth upholding, especially if we value our own freedom.
Russia is going to lose, they were always going to lose, the invasion was an incredibly stupid idea, that was doomed to fail, and poor execution has compounded that.
BitJam
Active Member
Russia is not Putin. Yes, Putin faces an existential crisis if a prosperous Slavic, democracy exists on his border.
NATO has gone to great pains to avoid even being implicated in attacking Russia. So please explain how Russia is actually threatened by the expansion of NATO. NATO will never attack Russia unless Russia starts a nuclear war or does something equally horrendous.
Even if Russia were to launch a war against NATO and lose (as they must), Russia would not be denied access to the Black Sea. Did the US and its allies try to cut off trade to Germany and Japan after their defeats in WW-2? No! Trade and economic prosperity were encouraged.
OTOH, economic prosperity in a free Ukraine would be devastating for Putin because it would allow the Russian population to see through his lies. This has given him tremendous motivation to try to pretend NATO is an existential threat to Russia even with zero evidence. If you have any actual evidence, please share it with us, otherwise I recommend you stop parroting Putin's ridiculous propaganda.
Are you serious? Or are you making fun of Putin's ridiculous claims that go against the most basic international laws? Russia has no right to control other sovereign countries regardless of the languages they use or the international organizations they join or want to join. This is what it means to be a sovereign nation and not a vassal state.
This kind of twisted pretzel logic is used to defend even the most heinous and immoral of wars. Aggressors always say they are attacking their neighbors out of self defense because if they don't have control over the entire world then bad things will happen. Rubbish!
You also have our relationship with China totally backward. Caving into Russia and letting them take Ukraine is an invitation for China to take Taiwan. Yes, the US made mistakes leading up to the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. These mistakes were to not stand up to Russia when it invaded Ukraine in 2014 and when it invaded Georgia and Chechnya. Not standing up to bullies leads to more bullying behavior. The idea that caving into bullies will curtail the bully goes against common sense and goes against mountains of evidence to the contrary.
Let’s all just use Ignore and stop feeding the troll for a whole page.
Otherwise it’s just sitting a habitual vandal down and wasting hours explaining why you shouldn’t break things, thus ensuring that even more of everyone’s time is stolen too.
Otherwise it’s just sitting a habitual vandal down and wasting hours explaining why you shouldn’t break things, thus ensuring that even more of everyone’s time is stolen too.
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
A "habitual vandal" or someone who somehow 'managed' to get duped by the Russian Dictator's propaganda?...
Seems 'the jury is still out' on that one.
EDIT: Nevermind... Se below.
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SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
Does anyone have a link to that poll? Considering the latest election results, recent polls in the US tend to skew very, very heavily in favor of the MAGA faction right now...
Until I've looked at that poll myself I don't trust it for one second.
Russia has ZERO interests to occupy and annexe Ukraine. Primarily because they know they do not have the economic, political and military wherewithal to make that happen.
Russia's primary goals are:
- While Ukraine can maintain its independence economically and politically, make sure it does not become a vassal state to America militarily, which essentially turns the country hostile to Russian interests and has a danger of becoming an existential threat. No different from US interests on Cuba.
- make sure Ukraine does not become a state harboring NATO weapons and missiles aimed at Russia
- make sure they have unfettered land (and drinking water) access to Crimea and Black sea.
- annexing Donbas and other Pro-Russian regions is of strategic interests, but not necessarily a goal - as long as the pro-Russian populace are not forced to migrate or become minorities.
None of these seem outrageous. If the shoe is on the other foot, of Mexico joining the (defunct) Warsaw pact or gets into close military ties with China, you would see America's military would be in Mexico in a heart beat.
