Russia/Ukraine conflict

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Russia has ZERO interests to occupy and annexe Ukraine. Primarily because they know they do not have the economic, political and military wherewithal to make that happen.

Russia's primary goals are:

- While Ukraine can maintain its independence economically and politically, make sure it does not become a vassal state to America militarily, which essentially turns the country hostile to Russian interests and has a danger of becoming an existential threat. No different from US interests on Cuba.

- make sure Ukraine does not become a state harboring NATO weapons and missiles aimed at Russia

- make sure they have unfettered land (and drinking water) access to Crimea and Black sea.

- annexing Donbas and other Pro-Russian regions is of strategic interests, but not necessarily a goal - as long as the pro-Russian populace are not forced to migrate or become minorities.

None of these seem outrageous. If the shoe is on the other foot, of Mexico joining the (defunct) Warsaw pact or gets into close military ties with China, you would see America's military would be in Mexico in a heart beat.

No need to annex if you can have a puppet state.

If Mexico wants to tie up with China they'd tie up with China unless the USA could get somebody friendly voted in.

Much harder to do what used to be done, and the USA has large economic dependency on Mexico for cheap labor so it can't just pull out of the free trade agreement in response.

 

[MC3OZ]

All right. Lets look at how far this true.

White House Delivers Bad News on Ukraine Aid​

Sometimes poll results can be driven to some extent by the way the question is worded.

Americans should place more value on freedom, democracy and a international rules based order, they will miss it when it is gone.

 

[wdolson]

Russia has ZERO interests to occupy and annexe Ukraine. Primarily because they know they do not have the economic, political and military wherewithal to make that happen.

Putin and his spokespeople have been stating for years (even before this war) that Russia and Ukraine are one people and should be united into one country. A plan has been leaked from the Kremlin for Russia to absorb Belarus back into Russia by 2030.

The model of world power set up by the US in the aftermath of WW II involved economic domination of other countries, but did not involve physical empire. China has adopted the same model with its Belt and Road initiative. Russia is a different animal, they think in terms of physical empire similar to the way things were in the 19th century.

Russia very much wishes to physically take over and control Ukraine from Moscow.

Russia's primary goals are:

- While Ukraine can maintain its independence economically and politically, make sure it does not become a vassal state to America militarily, which essentially turns the country hostile to Russian interests and has a danger of becoming an existential threat. No different from US interests on Cuba.

- make sure Ukraine does not become a state harboring NATO weapons and missiles aimed at Russia

- make sure they have unfettered land (and drinking water) access to Crimea and Black sea.

- annexing Donbas and other Pro-Russian regions is of strategic interests, but not necessarily a goal - as long as the pro-Russian populace are not forced to migrate or become minorities.

None of these seem outrageous. If the shoe is on the other foot, of Mexico joining the (defunct) Warsaw pact or gets into close military ties with China, you would see America's military would be in Mexico in a heart beat.

Every oblast in Ukraine voted in favor of independence in 1991. Crimea and the Donbas had the most "no" vote, but they still had majority "yes".
1991 Ukrainian independence referendum - Wikipedia

Luhansk and Donesk were still 83% "yes". The overall vote nationwide was 90%. Ukraine wanted to be free of Russia then and they want to be free of Russia now.

Russia has been promoting that the Donbas and Crimea are pro-Russian as an excuse to occupy those regions. After drafting almost every male over the age of 16 who could walk into the army in 2022 and getting them killed, support for Russia in those regions is probably not that huge. The first meat waves the Russians did was draftees from Donbas and Crimea. They switched to prisoners and now just regular Russian draftees because they keep running out ot populations to tap for their meat waves.

When Cuba tried to cozy up more to the USSR and started basing Soviet missiles in Cuba, the US did not invade. Tensions got pretty high, but the regime in Cuba at the time is still there 60 years later.

If Russia tried to put a puppet government in place in Kyiv, it would be overthrown in short order, just as they did in 2014. That's why they want to occupy the entire country. They know a puppet can't stand without the Russian army occupying the country.

 

[Skipdd]

All right. Lets look at how far this true.

White House Delivers Bad News on Ukraine Aid​

I am somewhat dubious about most polls, but I will accept that many people have short memories and can be easily swayed by the latest thing that crosses their screen. Even if this is true, it doesn’t change the fact that most members of congress (senate and house) still support funding UKR. Nor does it change the risk factors in not soundly defeating Russia which have been expounded on by many in this thread. I’m reminded of protestors in the US suggesting we ignore Hitler and Germany prior to our entering WWII. History does not need to repeat itself. This picture seems appropriate given the arguments from some in Congress. The people in this photo, like those supporting this view today, fail to appreciate that supporting UKR IS defending America. Like the past, we are in an (dis)information war. The pace has just morphed to be instantaneous. Just like on TSLA, HODL.

 

[madodel]

And worse was the German American Bund that didn't pretend to not be fascists.
When Nazis Took Manhattan

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

Someone got a little too trigger happy with the dermal fillers?...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1722356203961868311

 

[Surfer of Life]

It would sure be nice if we could move the endless troll-feeding responses to another thread just for the purpose of beating that dead horse. All those posts are adding relatively little additional value to this thread at this point, and they don’t seem to be letting up.

 

[Surfer of Life]

Another encouraging update from Denys; Ukraine Kabooming more Russians, including 3 more colonels killed 4 days ago (at 10:40).

 

[navguy12]

And worse was the German American Bund that didn't pretend to not be fascists.
When Nazis Took Manhattan

Another excellent source along the same lines:

Gangsters vs. Nazis: How Jewish Mobsters Battled Nazis in WW2 Era America Hardcover – April 26 2022​

Amazon.ca

 

[navguy12]

Since joining last spring, Pilunskiy has served with the group in many of the full-scale invasion’s bloodiest battles, including for Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia, and the Luhansk city of Lysychansk. “It was there, in Lysychansk, that we saw the Russian offensive as it was in second world war films, on that scale,” he says. “The first wave was more than 15 units of armoured vehicles. The other two waves had even more: you couldn’t even count it. It was pretty rough.”

Ukrainian film-makers ‘looking for right angle’ as military drone operators

Cinematographer Yaroslav Pilunskiy and film editor Ivan Bannikov are part of drone unit fighting Russians in Donetsk

www.theguardian.com

 

[Electroman]

the endless troll-feeding responses

et’s all just use Ignore and stop feeding the troll for a whole page.

Otherwise it’s just sitting a habitual vandal down and wasting hours explaining why you shouldn’t break things, thus ensuring that even more of everyone’s time is stolen too.

.. all right. Lets not disturb the echo chambers.

I will not offer my opinion here going forward, but sure will come and post news items and opinions (links) of observers, that might not fit the black & white world view of the active members of this thread.

 

[Skipdd]

It would sure be nice if we could move the endless troll-feeding responses to another thread just for the purpose of beating that dead horse. All those posts are adding relatively little additional value to this thread at this point, and they don’t seem to be letting up.

I hear you, but if you are referring to the OP I think you are, that person has posted for years in other threads with informative pieces. Given that, I’m uncomfortable labeling them a “troll,” even though I strongly disagree with their views. There were other posters here for whom that designation fits more squarely.

 

[SageBrush]

Given that, I’m uncomfortable labeling them a “troll,” even though I strongly disagree with their views

I agree, but either way does not matter to me. I'll not respond other to place them on 'ignore.'

 

[iPlug]

Ukraine continues to make progress pushing back and clearing out the Russian Black Sea fleet:

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1722892010363719937

 

[Buckminster]

Nice:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1723008897244373438

 

[scaesare]

Was this one posted already?

I'm only a few minutes into this, but interestingly Lex categorized Elon as controversial for being a proponent of peace.

A sad commentary on the state of humanity...

 

[Tiger]

Russia's primary goals are:

- While Ukraine can maintain its independence economically and politically, make sure it does not become a vassal state to America militarily, which essentially turns the country hostile to Russian interests and has a danger of becoming an existential threat.

Russia itself has turned the country hostile to Russian interests by attacking.

- make sure Ukraine does not become a state harboring NATO weapons and missiles aimed at Russia

What would any country want from Russia, it's a poisoned well.

- make sure they have unfettered land (and drinking water) access to Crimea and Black sea.

We can agree to disagree on this one to whom it belongs.

- annexing Donbas and other Pro-Russian regions is of strategic interests, but not necessarily a goal - as long as the pro-Russian populace are not forced to migrate or become minorities.

Russia does not care about the population there except to conscript them and send them to Ukraine as cannon fodder.

The rest of them they will use as human shields.

None of these seem outrageous. If the shoe is on the other foot, of Mexico joining the (defunct) Warsaw pact or gets into close military ties with China, you would see America's military would be in Mexico in a heart beat.

 

[Cosmacelf]

I'm only a few minutes into this, but interestingly Lex categorized Elon as controversial for being a proponent of peace.

A sad commentary on the state of humanity...

It's more nuanced than that. People wanted to somehow punish Russia for its aggression, which isn't a bad reaction at first blush. But there are better options. In the interview, Elon articulated his position in much more depth and provided viable alternatives.

First, his stance on the Ukraine war was that a year ago he was predicting what we see now - WW1 style trench warfare where whoever goes on the offensive will lose troops at a 3-1 ratio. We saw that with Russian troops initially, and now we see it with Ukrainian troops. There is no solution from this state other than a negotiated peace. Had it been done a year ago, many lives would have been saved.

Second, his other point is that the way to win actual wars (as opposed to battles) is via conspicuous acts of kindness. He pointed to the Marshall plan and how the US uplifted and rebuilt Japan and Germany after defeating them militarily. This ensured lasting peace. For this segment he was talking about this in the context of the Israel/Hamas war.

Elon's points make a lot of sense. Putting them into practice is hard, but worthwhile to try.

 

[Tony73]

I'm only a few minutes into this, but interestingly Lex categorized Elon as controversial for being a proponent of peace.

A sad commentary on the state of humanity...

Musk is not a proponent of peace. He is a proponent of appeasement and history will judge him as such. When it’s all said and done he will still go down in history as the greatest tech visionary and entrepreneur the world has ever seen but there will always be that asterisk.

 

[scaesare]

It's more nuanced than that. People wanted to somehow punish Russia for its aggression, which isn't a bad reaction at first blush. But there are better options. In the interview, Elon articulated his position in much more depth and provided viable alternatives.

First, his stance on the Ukraine war was that a year ago he was predicting what we see now - WW1 style trench warfare where whoever goes on the offensive will lose troops at a 3-1 ratio. We saw that with Russian troops initially, and now we see it with Ukrainian troops. There is no solution from this state other than a negotiated peace. Had it been done a year ago, many lives would have been saved.

Second, his other point is that the way to win actual wars (as opposed to battles) is via conspicuous acts of kindness. He pointed to the Marshall plan and how the US uplifted and rebuilt Japan and Germany after defeating them militarily. This ensured lasting peace. For this segment he was talking about this in the context of the Israel/Hamas war.

Elon's points make a lot of sense. Putting them into practice is hard, but worthwhile to try.

Yeah, I don't want to delve in to the political, but the idea of going the extra mile to pursue peace is foreign in this system of things. I find that sad.

I got a surprising number of dislikes on that post. I can only hope they are disagreeing with Lex's characterization of him, and not with the idea that being a proponent of peace is a controversial idea...