Apparently Russia has been producing more jets than it's lost in the war, according to Binkov.
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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
navguy12
Active Member
A Ukranian Catholic priest assesses the war with Russia 2 years in: our spirit is ‘unbreakable’
“If you talk today with the widows who have lost their husbands, and mothers who have lost their sons, you will understand why Russia did not succeed.”
www.americamagazine.org
According to Binkow in this video, he is referencing the relatively low kill estimates up until the end of 2023. However, in just in the last week, Ukraine has destroyed ~8 high value aircraft (Su-34, Su-35, A-50, etc). That is on top of another ~$350 million A-50 just last month. These have not been in production for a long time and are not replaceable. Russia has perhaps 1-2 more working A-50s and no aircraft in line to take over their reconnaissance roles.
Meanwhile, the U.S./EU is trying to clamp down on sanctions evasion as Russian aircraft use numerous Western parts/chips. Monetary resources are not unlimited for Russia either, and these aircraft are very expensive to replace, so the more Russia tries to ramp aircraft production, the more they will drain some other vital war machine resource.
You can’t make this stuff up, one more:
I hope somebody didn't get their wires crossed. An IL-22M was also shot down last month on the same day as the A-50.
It's possible. Aircraft like the A-50 are up there mostly to spot aircraft coming in at low altitude. Take those out and the Ukrainian air force will be able to operate without being seen.
As others have said, it looks like burning fuel. The hit probably blew off a wing and ruptured the fuel tank. The two pieces are falling to earth with the fuel pouring out of the halves of the fuel tank and burning the whole way.
Your thinking is right in line with Timothy Snyder. He had an essay a couple of months ago railing against the people who describe this war as a stalemate. He pointed out that a stalemate is a term from a game like chess where you are constrained by the pieces given to you by the rules of the game. But war is not chess. You aren't limited to one queen, two bishops, two knights, etc. If you have the ability, you can put as many queens on the board as you want. It comes down to political will and industrial capacity.
But he also pointed out that while things are largely stalled on the ground, the naval war is very definitely going Ukraine's way and at that time Ukraine had done some significant damage to bases in Crimea. Now they are picking off the most valuable aircraft in the Russian air force, so far with impunity. Ukraine has also stuck at targets deep within Russia which has done damage to Russian production and forced them to pull air defense systems back into Russia.
A Lanchester Square Collapse is a catastrophic loss of trained personnel with the inability to replace them. Russia has gone through this and is just throwing bodies at the line instead of using trained troops to accomplish objectives with minimal casualties. The Russians are trying to use mass to compensate for a lack of skill. To some degree it's working, but the costs are steep and they can't keep it up indefinitely.
Ukraine is not losing troops at a rate anywhere near Russia and they are replacing lost troops with green troops who have a more comprehensive training regime than the trooper they are replacing. The lost soldier had experience the green replacement didn't have, but the training is more relevant to current conditions and the green guy is going to come up to speed faster.
Ukraine is facing shortages of many supplies, but Europe and other non-American allies will probably be able to keep them in defensive supply for a while. An army consumes much less supply on defense than on offense and non-US allies can supply basics like small arms ammunition and at least some artillery ammunition.
Ukraine also bringing the war back to Russia today:
DanCar
Active Member
I'm disappointed more Americans aren't standing up to the Fascist Putin and his thugs. Perhaps more people need to study what happened during WW2 and Hitler. There should only be one response: a quick and decisive action. The cost maybe high, but alternatives are more costly in the long run. Inviting more thugs to try to take over the world.
Suggestion: Constitutional amendment allowing the presidency to ask for volunteers from prisons to fight in a foreign war.
Suggestion: Constitutional amendment allowing the presidency to ask for volunteers from prisons to fight in a foreign war.
S-200 SAM being suggested as the missile which took out the A 50. Plausible as it has a range of 300km and UKR have been using them for air and ground attacks.
Uses radar so flares won't be a defence and I still think those were flares being dropped as they were seen before the missile hit if you look at the full video clip.
Full video here
(I don't know how to insert 'X' video clips!)
The full video shows two airborne explosions. One is nowhere near the aircraft and could have self-destructed or been intercepted by a missile seen launching from the ground.
The other missile hits after the plane had dropped several flares, at which point it clearly loses altitude rapidly on fire.
Of course some are trying to suggest an F-16 could have been responsible, but that seems unlikely given the target!
There's no doubt though that the number of RUS aircraft downed recently is a significant development and might be due to some other weapon or platform UKR have only just received.
I wonder if Viktor Afzalov (RUS Aerospace commander) is glad he got the job?
Uses radar so flares won't be a defence and I still think those were flares being dropped as they were seen before the missile hit if you look at the full video clip.
Full video here
(I don't know how to insert 'X' video clips!)
The full video shows two airborne explosions. One is nowhere near the aircraft and could have self-destructed or been intercepted by a missile seen launching from the ground.
The other missile hits after the plane had dropped several flares, at which point it clearly loses altitude rapidly on fire.
Of course some are trying to suggest an F-16 could have been responsible, but that seems unlikely given the target!
There's no doubt though that the number of RUS aircraft downed recently is a significant development and might be due to some other weapon or platform UKR have only just received.
I wonder if Viktor Afzalov (RUS Aerospace commander) is glad he got the job?
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Yeah, that video pretty clearly shows that the A-50 was releasing numerous defensive flares. And they may have worked against one missile fired. But not the second.
navguy12
Active Member
I just finished watching a 23 year old series called Band of Brothers yesterday and thought that those WW2 veterans must be spinning in their graves.
The second last episode, Why We Fight, was especially poignant; I wondered just how much different the current Russian gulag state of affairs is…
navguy12
Active Member
navguy12
Active Member
navguy12
Active Member
Band of Brothers is a national treasure. I'm surprised that you hadn't watched it earlier. The fact that it's a true story makes it all the better. So many great scenes. The one where Spiers sprints through the grouping of Nazis, delivers instructions to the group on the other side, and sprints back gives me chills every time.
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The follow up production "Masters of the Air" by the same team, documenting the WWII air war and the sacrifices those soldiers made, is well worth the watch. Currently in first run.
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
Maj. Gen. Chip Chapman doesn't seem to be worried about a Ukrainian Lanchester Square Law Collapse:
navguy12
Active Member
I was unaware of the existence of the series Band of Brothers, as well as The Pacific, until I began to watch Masters of the Air earlier this month when my wife told me about the other two series.
So I bought the two blu ray sets and am now catching up…
navguy12
Active Member
Without being morbid, I hope some samples of the remains can be smuggled out of Russia to be analyzed for toxins.
