Russia/Ukraine conflict

[iPlug]

It's interesting that they're only targeting the refineries. I think they're pulling their punches by not hitting the oil wells, particularly in the Urals region. I'm guessing they're avoiding that target because they don't want to upset their allies by raising the cost of oil.

There’s excess refining capacity throughout the world, so such a strategy would make sense.

Still, it would be imaginable for Ukraine to take out some Russian oil production since the core of OPEC is holding back a significant amount of production trying to prop up global prices.

 

[Cobos]

I'm guessing hitting refineries also gives a more immediate effect. My guess is the storage of finished petrolium products isn't very extensive and if it would have been that makes for excellent drone targets. Hence hitting refineries and a lot of them pretty soon means people can't buy gasoline since they empty the gas station and there are no refills since the refinery producing them is dealing with the aftermath of the fire.
My guess is that is going to make running tanks harder as well as the common russians life. They need merchandise to get moved to the store, and with scarce access to gas no stuff in stores... While the oil wells are more dispersed and have a longer time until it starts affecting things. Not to mention if the oil wells can't get rid of their oil (see lack of gasoline) they have to shut down.

 

[adiggs]

I'm guessing hitting refineries also gives a more immediate effect. My guess is the storage of finished petrolium products isn't very extensive and if it would have been that makes for excellent drone targets. Hence hitting refineries and a lot of them pretty soon means people can't buy gasoline since they empty the gas station and there are no refills since the refinery producing them is dealing with the aftermath of the fire.
My guess is that is going to make running tanks harder as well as the common russians life. They need merchandise to get moved to the store, and with scarce access to gas no stuff in stores... While the oil wells are more dispersed and have a longer time until it starts affecting things. Not to mention if the oil wells can't get rid of their oil (see lack of gasoline) they have to shut down.

Reasonable odds of a disproportionate impact on Russian civilians, to the degree that finished petroleum products are needed for the war. I figure the war machine will be the last consumer to be rationed, economy logistics will be next to last, and consumers the first (if we subdivide consumption into those 3 buckets - it's pretty simplistic I know ).

 

[jabloomf1230]

Reasonable odds of a disproportionate impact on Russian civilians, to the degree that finished petroleum products are needed for the war. I figure the war machine will be the last consumer to be rationed, economy logistics will be next to last, and consumers the first (if we subdivide consumption into those 3 buckets - it's pretty simplistic I know ).

Although I agree with your analysis, bombing Russian refineries also raises the worldwide price of oil and petroleum-related products.

 

[SmokyPeat]

The refineries are a higher value target. The refined petroleum products on site also contribute to the amount of damage done by the drone strikes.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

Russia: [A ~4 minute long] Montage of polling places throughout the country from the first day of 'voting' for Putin. Dozens of instances of arson and spoilage of ballot boxes with ink.

twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1768734466120278414

https://twitter.com/x/status/1768734466120278414

 

[wdolson]

It's interesting that they're only targeting the refineries. I think they're pulling their punches by not hitting the oil wells, particularly in the Urals region. I'm guessing they're avoiding that target because they don't want to upset their allies by raising the cost of oil.

Bombing wells is not very efficient. The wells are spaced well apart and taking out one well head just takes out one well. To cripple the crude oil side, it would be far more efficient to take out the pump stations on pipelines and the oil terminals. But this is an election year in the US and even though the US has one of the lowest inflation rates in the world (9th from the bottom in 2023), consumers are very sensitive to inflation right now.

Even before the Ukrainian campaign to take out refineries, Russia had put a stop to refined fuel exports. The war has put a strain on their refined fuel supply. So taking out Russia's refining capacity makes sense. First off refineries are easy targets for drones. One small drone can start a large fire that does a lot of damage. Refined fuels are more volatile than crude oil.

Secondly reducing Russia's fuel supply will hurt their war effort. They not only need refined fuel to fuel their front line fighting vehicles, but they also need the fuel for the trains, trucks, and other vehicles used in producing and moving war goods to the front.

By 1945 German trains were still moving because they still used coal to fuel their steam engines, but Russia's trains are all diesel. Reduce the diesel supply and their trains won't run as often.

Drying up the motor fuel supply for the civilian market is a good thing too. It fuels the growing tension between the government and the public.

Russia is going to struggle to bring these refineries back online. The companies that make the parts they need are almost all American. The Chinese make some parts such as filters, but the core equipment is American made.

 

[madodel]

Michel mockingly congratulates Putin on ‘landslide victory’ as Russian presidential elections begin

“Would like to congratulate Vladimir Putin on his landslide victory in the elections starting today,” Michel wrote on X on March 15. “No opposition. No freedom. No choice.”

 

[CorneliusXX]

The drone war revolution is just getting started. War will be much different 10 years from now and mostly fought with drones, for those that have the resources to do so. Current robots are rather crude. Even in just a few years capabilities will increase remarkably employing new LLM hardware and software. . Russia may have a difficult time matching this, since they have limited access to chips.

Ukrainian officials see ground robots as ‘game changer’ in war

Defense-tech analysts expect unmanned ground platforms to become what aerial drones have come to be on the battlefields of Ukraine.

www.defensenews.com

Quote: Officials at Brave1, a government defense-technology hub tasked with getting new capabilities field-ready, announced that more than 50 ground robotic systems and more 140 unmanned ground vehicles have been submitted for evaluation.
Hundreds of them will be procured through United24 to strengthen the Ukrainian army on the battlefield in a few months ...

Minister: Ukraine to mass-produce robots to 'minimize human involvement on battlefield'

Ukraine plans to mass-produce mobile robots capable of mining, demining, operating attack drones, evacuating wounded soldiers, and transporting ammunition, Digital Transformation Minister Mykhailo Fedorov announced on March 12.

kyivindependent.com

Ukraine plans to mass-produce mobile robots capable of mining, demining, operating attack drones, evacuating wounded soldiers, and transporting ammunition, Digital Transformation Minister Mykhailo Fedorov announced...

I just saw this tweet about rebels in Myanmar 3d printing drones in the jungle. The cost reduction and manufacturing simplification of drones vs legacy weapons systems is remarkable.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1768601365650006216

 

[Tiger]

Although I agree with your analysis, bombing Russian refineries also raises the worldwide price of oil and petroleum-related products.

That's the cost of years of inaction (and submission to being co-opted by Russia) and letting Russia become the world's largets Mafia gas station.

You can think of these as contingency costs for unexpected or unplanned expenses due to poor planning and preparation in the past.

 

[iPlug]

To any “pundits” out there still claiming a stalemate, the latest developments on why they are still wrong:

Putin has massacred a few hundred thousand Russian men with meat-wave attacks and has relatively little terrestrial gain to show for it.

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s more recent achievements:

-the Black Sea is now essentially cleared of Russian warships
-Russian air defenses are spread more thinly and are getting peeled back
-Russia can now see much more poorly into Ukraine with few if any operable A-50 AWACS not shot down yet (and/or the trained crews alive)
-Russia has lost many Su-34/35s and with less visibility is much less able to project air power, particularly to get close enough to use glide bombs with impunity and not also get shot down
-Ukraine is building up their EW capabilities and offensive weapons that are more resistant to Russian EW
-Ukraine is now lighting up numbers of Russian oil refineries and there are plenty more similar targets they will be able to reach
-Ukraine continues to scale drone production and sophistication at a rapid clip
-we are hearing that the first few F-16s should arrive in the summer

Now if only the U.S. could break through the shameful political chicanery, Ukraine could get the resources they need to really move the needle more in their favor and save many of their lives.

 

[iPlug]

Didn’t take very long, here’s the next Russian oil refinery ablaze:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1768879285840814535

 

[Surfer of Life]

So many amazing things happening; Russian rebels taking the war to Russia is the beginning of the end-

@iPlug ‘s refinery blown up too after this video - Russian internal defenses are breaking down nicely, while Ukraine’s performance in Ukraine isn’t too shabby either, with a 1:7 kill rate ratio:

 

[Tiger]

Didn’t take very long, here’s the next Russian oil refinery ablaze:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1768879285840814535

You want to invade us? Ok. I'll shoot you in the knees. /s

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

It wouldn't surprise me one bit. Allegedly:

To steal the money, Russian commanders are murdering their soldiers who were compensated 3 million rubles ($30,000) for getting wounded in action and sent back to the front lines.
This is being done systemically in the Sarmat battalion. - Vladimir Osechkin [...

twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1768893199639277779

https://twitter.com/x/status/1768893199639277779

 

[navguy12]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1768663739094413537

 

[navguy12]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1769033983923306677

 

[iPlug]

Having become nearly a daily occurrence, today's Russian refinery hit is again brought to us by the drones of Ukraine:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1769196942926782682

 

[SwTslaGrl]

Topic of the day,

"Classic large high-flying reconnaissance drones such as the Orlan-10 continue to be a major problem for Ukraine and provide Russia with a real-time situational picture up to at least 6-7 miles from the front. They fly at heights where neither machine guns nor automatic guns - not even anti-aircraft guns - can reach. They have too little heat signature to be locked on by heat-seeking IR robots like MANPADS, and for most radar target seekers, they have too little radar signature for radar-guided expensive anti-aircraft robots."

Flygplats i Moskva och ryskt raffinaderi nära Krym bombat - ryska Orlandrönare förblir ett svårlöst problem - massiva ryska förluster

Logistiklokaler vid en flygplats i Moskva har bombats och det ryska raffinaderi som ligger närmast ockuperade Krym har träffats av flera drönarrobotar. De ryska taktiska Orlandrönarna förblir ett svårlöst problem och gör att Ryssland har en lägesbild i realtid från fronten och upp till 6 - 7 mil in.

cornucopia-se.translate.goog

 

[wdolson]

Topic of the day,

"Classic large high-flying reconnaissance drones such as the Orlan-10 continue to be a major problem for Ukraine and provide Russia with a real-time situational picture up to at least 6-7 miles from the front. They fly at heights where neither machine guns nor automatic guns - not even anti-aircraft guns - can reach. They have too little heat signature to be locked on by heat-seeking IR robots like MANPADS, and for most radar target seekers, they have too little radar signature for radar-guided expensive anti-aircraft robots."

Flygplats i Moskva och ryskt raffinaderi nära Krym bombat - ryska Orlandrönare förblir ett svårlöst problem - massiva ryska förluster

Logistiklokaler vid en flygplats i Moskva har bombats och det ryska raffinaderi som ligger närmast ockuperade Krym har träffats av flera drönarrobotar. De ryska taktiska Orlandrönarna förblir ett svårlöst problem och gör att Ryssland har en lägesbild i realtid från fronten och upp till 6 - 7 mil in.

cornucopia-se.translate.goog

I'm sure someone is developing a fighter drone to intercept and shoot down other drones.