Russia/Ukraine conflict

[UncaNed]

Thanks to all of you who recommended Timothy Snyder's History of Ukraine class and substack.
If you haven't seen it yet and want to be a force for good, this post has some excellent recommendations, four of which are US 501(c)3 so, great place to donate any TSLA profits you can spare through DAF or direct stock donation:

The Challenge of 6

Helping Ukrainians as Congress Vacates

open.substack.com

Thanks for posting this; which I'd seen this to donate last year. I just sent $4,500 to Razom.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

There are links to Ukraine in this.

Here's two:
14:03: At least one "incident" at last years NATO Summit in Lithuania.
15:03: "...] what could be revenge attacks" on US Personal that had worked in Ukraine.

Apr 1, 2024
Efforts continue to investigate brain injuries suffered by U.S. officials. This is the fourth 60 Minutes Havana Syndrome report and, for the first time, there’s evidence of who might be responsible. [...

 

[UncaNed]

Apparent Russian influence in Germany's bad decision to shut off nuclear energy and buy Russian gas and oil instead, likely leading to Ukraine's invasion.

 

[wdolson]

Why Russia’s economy is doing so well – even if the good times won’t likely last​

“Gifted” link to an opinion piece in today’s Globe and Mail:

Why Russia’s economy is doing so well – even if the good times won’t likely last

The sanctions have failed to make a dent, at least so far, on Russia’s economy. It’s outperforming the West but this might change going forward

www.theglobeandmail.com

The article won't load for some reason. The Russian economy is on a sugar high right now. Moscow is pouring money into the defense economy to build as much as they can for the war. They were also giving lavish sign up bonuses early in the war, though I'm not sure they are still doing that.

The Kremlin is essentially printing money to do this. It's already having an inflationary effect.

History shows that when countries spend like this to go to fund a wartime economy, the economy usually ends up in bad shape when the war ends. The US came out of WW II richer than when it started, but the rest of the world was impoverished and even the winners struggled economically for many years. Britain didn't end rationing until 1954. The US pumped $23.3 billion (equivalent of $173 billion today) into European economies to help them get back on their feet. The UK got the most assistance and it had less physical damage than the countries on the continent. The US also helped Japan rebuild.

That's an incentive for Putin not to end the war. He almost certainly knows the only time the Soviet economy actually worked was during the war emergency in WW II. But with growing discontent among the population, the clock is ticking on the war.

 

[nwdiver]

Only day of the year that Ruzzians have 'tech' worth stealing.

US Submarine first in world outfitted with Caterpillar Drive

 

[navguy12]

From this morning’s Guardian news feed:

Russia-Ukraine war live: drones strike Russian factories more than 1,000km from Ukraine
Russia-Ukraine war live: drones strike Russian factories more than 1,000km from Ukraine

 

[navguy12]

If the Russian GRU is confirmed to be responsible for numerous attacks against US military, diplomatic, and intelligence personnel and their families, however...

 

[navguy12]

 

[UncaNed]

From this morning’s Guardian news feed:

This is some of the best news I've heard in a long time; Ukraine taking the battle 1,200 km to the source -Russia's drone factory- where they can nip it in the butt.

I hope they do the same wherever Russia converts those big 1500 KG monster bombs into glide bombs. That would really help turn the tables on Russia.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

"
Another 1.2 million artillery shells for Ukraine?

At the latest UDCG [Ukraine Defense Contact Group] meeting, Estonia informed the coalition that they have identified €2 billion-€3 billion worth of artillery ammunition available on the global market *in addition* to the ammo sourced by Czechia.

Estonian Minister of Defense Hanno Pevkur tells newspaper Postimees that deliveries could begin in 2 months if funding is secured. The available ammunition includes 122mm Grad rockets, and 122mm, 152mm & 155mm shells.

How many shells this would translate to depends on the price. Postimees put the average global unit price at €2500, which is reasonable given the Czech estimate of €3 billion being required for 1.5 million shells, for a unit price of €2000.

The Estonian initiative could therefore source between 800,000 and 1,200,000 shells. [My u.]

With the Czech initiative still not fully funded though, according to public information, it is imperative that the European Peace Facility's Ukraine Assistance Fund be tapped to finance these procurements. Ukraine can't wait for this ammunition.
"

twitter.com/ColbyBadhwar/status/1775153015701262657?s=20

https://twitter.com/x/status/1775153015701262657

 

[Dangerous Fish]

Is this believable? I so want it to be but how many times have these people let Ukraine down?

Ukraine Might Be Getting $34 Billion In American Weapons—And Soon

Assuming Speaker of the House Mike Johnson honors his word, a lot of money and a lot of badly-needed weapons are about to arrive at the front line in Ukraine.

www.forbes.com

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

Is this believable? I so want it to be but how many times have these people let Ukraine down?

Ukraine Might Be Getting $34 Billion In American Weapons—And Soon

Assuming Speaker of the House Mike Johnson honors his word, a lot of money and a lot of badly-needed weapons are about to arrive at the front line in Ukraine.

www.forbes.com

That link/URL doesn't work for me...

 

[Dangerous Fish]

That link/URL doesn't work for me...

Can't see here what the problem is with it, maybe someone else can help

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

Can't see here what the problem is with it, maybe someone else can help

Ok. I found a workaround.

 

[CorneliusXX]

"
Another 1.2 million artillery shells for Ukraine?

At the latest UDCG [Ukraine Defense Contact Group] meeting, Estonia informed the coalition that they have identified €2 billion-€3 billion worth of artillery ammunition available on the global market *in addition* to the ammo sourced by Czechia.

Estonian Minister of Defense Hanno Pevkur tells newspaper Postimees that deliveries could begin in 2 months if funding is secured. The available ammunition includes 122mm Grad rockets, and 122mm, 152mm & 155mm shells.

How many shells this would translate to depends on the price. Postimees put the average global unit price at €2500, which is reasonable given the Czech estimate of €3 billion being required for 1.5 million shells, for a unit price of €2000.

The Estonian initiative could therefore source between 800,000 and 1,200,000 shells. [My u.]

With the Czech initiative still not fully funded though, according to public information, it is imperative that the European Peace Facility's Ukraine Assistance Fund be tapped to finance these procurements. Ukraine can't wait for this ammunition.
"

twitter.com/ColbyBadhwar/status/1775153015701262657?s=20

https://twitter.com/x/status/1775153015701262657

It's great that Ukraine may get this soon but devastating it wasn't delivered a long time ago.

 

[DanCar]

That link/URL doesn't work for me...

..., U.S. aid likely is coming, soon. Lots of it.

While Johnson hasn’t announced the details of the House proposal he said he would bring to a vote potentially this month, there’s a good chance it will mirror the spending package the U.S. Senate passed months ago—a package that includes $60 billion for Ukraine, $34 billion of which is for weapons. The rest pays for the training for Ukrainian troops as well as humanitarian aid and other non-military assistance.

To put into perspective how much weaponry $34 billion can buy, consider that—in the first 23 months of Russia’s wider war on Ukraine—the United States appropriated $45 billion for weapons for Ukraine.

Roughly half of that spending was in the form of direct commercial contracts the Pentagon negotiated, and paid for, on Ukraine’s behalf. The other half of the spending paid for new weapons for U.S. forces after the Pentagon donated their older weapons to Ukraine directly from U.S. stocks.

All that is to say, the aid that U.S. president Joe Biden, his Democratic allies in the U.S. Senate and U.S. House and millions of everyday Americans fought for, for six months, should keep Ukraine flush with arms for another year or more.

Expect the fresh aid to pay for a lot of radars, radio-jammers, drones, boats, armored vehicles and engineering equipment. Especially expect it to pay for artillery and air-defenses—and ammunition for both.

That should mean more 155-millimeter howitzers on top of the roughly 200 howitzers the previous funding paid for, more High-Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems on top of the previous 39 and more Patriot and National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System air-defenses batteries, adding to the single Patriot and 12 NASAMS Ukraine already has gotten from the United States.

And it should mean at least a million 155-millimeter artillery shells from the new ammo factory the U.S. Army built in Texas specifically to churn out shells for Ukraine. The Texas plant, as well as other new and expanded facilities that support ammo-production, depended on supplementary funding—and has been in financial limbo since Republicans cut off aid back in October.

With fresh funding, the Texas plant and a pair of similar plants in Pennsylvania can—likely within months—ramp up to producing 60,000 shells a month on their way to producing 100,000 shells a month within nine months. The Pennsylvania factories together produced just 15,000 shells a month before Russian widened its war on Ukraine in February 2022.

Continued...

 

[navguy12]

..., U.S. aid likely is coming, soon. Lots of it.

While Johnson hasn’t announced the details of the House proposal he said he would bring to a vote potentially this month, there’s a good chance it will mirror the spending package the U.S. Senate passed months ago—a package that includes $60 billion for Ukraine, $34 billion of which is for weapons. The rest pays for the training for Ukrainian troops as well as humanitarian aid and other non-military assistance.

To put into perspective how much weaponry $34 billion can buy, consider that—in the first 23 months of Russia’s wider war on Ukraine—the United States appropriated $45 billion for weapons for Ukraine.

Roughly half of that spending was in the form of direct commercial contracts the Pentagon negotiated, and paid for, on Ukraine’s behalf. The other half of the spending paid for new weapons for U.S. forces after the Pentagon donated their older weapons to Ukraine directly from U.S. stocks.

All that is to say, the aid that U.S. president Joe Biden, his Democratic allies in the U.S. Senate and U.S. House and millions of everyday Americans fought for, for six months, should keep Ukraine flush with arms for another year or more.

Expect the fresh aid to pay for a lot of radars, radio-jammers, drones, boats, armored vehicles and engineering equipment. Especially expect it to pay for artillery and air-defenses—and ammunition for both.

That should mean more 155-millimeter howitzers on top of the roughly 200 howitzers the previous funding paid for, more High-Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems on top of the previous 39 and more Patriot and National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System air-defenses batteries, adding to the single Patriot and 12 NASAMS Ukraine already has gotten from the United States.

And it should mean at least a million 155-millimeter artillery shells from the new ammo factory the U.S. Army built in Texas specifically to churn out shells for Ukraine. The Texas plant, as well as other new and expanded facilities that support ammo-production, depended on supplementary funding—and has been in financial limbo since Republicans cut off aid back in October.

With fresh funding, the Texas plant and a pair of similar plants in Pennsylvania can—likely within months—ramp up to producing 60,000 shells a month on their way to producing 100,000 shells a month within nine months. The Pennsylvania factories together produced just 15,000 shells a month before Russian widened its war on Ukraine in February 2022.

Continued...

I’ll believe it when the arms are shipped.

 

[iPlug]

Ukraine’s continuing hits on Russian oil refineries and depots seem to be working. Global oil prices continue to creep up since this started.

Higher oil/refined product prices do not help Russian finances as this is offset much more by their reduced sales volume availability. It’s also bad for non-EV drivers and unfortunately democratic political incumbents currently in office. OTOH, it’s good for EV sales, oil/refined product producers (such as the United States), and in accelerating the transition from fossil fuels.

 

[growler23]

..., U.S. aid likely is coming, soon. Lots of it.

While Johnson hasn’t announced the details of the House proposal he said he would bring to a vote potentially this month, there’s a good chance it will mirror the spending package the U.S. Senate passed months ago—a package that includes $60 billion for Ukraine, $34 billion of which is for weapons. The rest pays for the training for Ukrainian troops as well as humanitarian aid and other non-military assistance.

To put into perspective how much weaponry $34 billion can buy, consider that—in the first 23 months of Russia’s wider war on Ukraine—the United States appropriated $45 billion for weapons for Ukraine.

Roughly half of that spending was in the form of direct commercial contracts the Pentagon negotiated, and paid for, on Ukraine’s behalf. The other half of the spending paid for new weapons for U.S. forces after the Pentagon donated their older weapons to Ukraine directly from U.S. stocks.

All that is to say, the aid that U.S. president Joe Biden, his Democratic allies in the U.S. Senate and U.S. House and millions of everyday Americans fought for, for six months, should keep Ukraine flush with arms for another year or more.

Expect the fresh aid to pay for a lot of radars, radio-jammers, drones, boats, armored vehicles and engineering equipment. Especially expect it to pay for artillery and air-defenses—and ammunition for both.

That should mean more 155-millimeter howitzers on top of the roughly 200 howitzers the previous funding paid for, more High-Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems on top of the previous 39 and more Patriot and National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System air-defenses batteries, adding to the single Patriot and 12 NASAMS Ukraine already has gotten from the United States.

And it should mean at least a million 155-millimeter artillery shells from the new ammo factory the U.S. Army built in Texas specifically to churn out shells for Ukraine. The Texas plant, as well as other new and expanded facilities that support ammo-production, depended on supplementary funding—and has been in financial limbo since Republicans cut off aid back in October.

With fresh funding, the Texas plant and a pair of similar plants in Pennsylvania can—likely within months—ramp up to producing 60,000 shells a month on their way to producing 100,000 shells a month within nine months. The Pennsylvania factories together produced just 15,000 shells a month before Russian widened its war on Ukraine in February 2022.

Continued...

That is fantastic! Except for that tiny word, in the first full paragraph, "potentially". As in "potentially this month". Why was this not allowed by the Speaker to go to the floor for a vote back in December? Why are we now 4 months later, with Russia having recently devastated a lot of the Ukrainian power grid, having retaken Avdiivka, putting huge pressure on Robotyne... There has never been a believable explanation from the Speaker of the House, since with the ones he has given each time, his bluff has been called, and still somehow, no action on Ukraine, but another new excuse and weeks of delays. That word "potentially" here could mean another 4 months of delay since history shows that we have no accurate transparency as to the Speaker's reasoning. I know this is political but there is very little that matters more to the outcome of this war right now than US domestic politics.
The aid, as we all knew already, is massive enough to make a real difference in the battlefield should it ever get to the floor of the US House for a vote, the outcome of which (at least up until now) was never in doubt. The aid will allow an expansion of the long range Ukrainian strikes which are proving so effective against Russian targets, especially but not limited to the refineries, Black Sea fleet HQ, and shipyards. The aid will allow Ukraine to get closer to shell parity for artillery which can only help all along the extensive front. The aid will, perhaps, critically allow more civilian air defense (in the one case, though, not sure if the US military actually believes we can _spare_ more Patriots, but perhaps other air defense can be acquired).
Let us really hope this gets to the floor this time around.

 

[wdolson]

View attachment 1034607

View attachment 1034608

View attachment 1034609

I always thought it was the Russians. Not that we can do anything about it.

The device used for the Havana Syndrome is probably a repurposed magnatron from a microwave oven with a focusing device. Someone in the US made one many years ago (before the Havana Syndrome was a thing). I think it was a disgruntled former employee who blasted their former office from across the street. The symptoms of the victims was pretty much the same as Havana Syndrome.

It's been 20 years or more since I read the story, so it's possible I forgot some details.

View attachment 1034610

It's good that Ukraine quit hitting refineries. That will prevent more inflation in fuel prices, but hitting the factories making Russian war goods is very good. It's hard to completely knock out a factory, but production can be slowed for a while.

The Ukrainians did have a lucky hit on a factory making a critical component for the Lancet drones that put them out of production for several months. I'm not sure they are back into production yet.

"
Another 1.2 million artillery shells for Ukraine?

At the latest UDCG [Ukraine Defense Contact Group] meeting, Estonia informed the coalition that they have identified €2 billion-€3 billion worth of artillery ammunition available on the global market *in addition* to the ammo sourced by Czechia.

Estonian Minister of Defense Hanno Pevkur tells newspaper Postimees that deliveries could begin in 2 months if funding is secured. The available ammunition includes 122mm Grad rockets, and 122mm, 152mm & 155mm shells.

How many shells this would translate to depends on the price. Postimees put the average global unit price at €2500, which is reasonable given the Czech estimate of €3 billion being required for 1.5 million shells, for a unit price of €2000.

The Estonian initiative could therefore source between 800,000 and 1,200,000 shells. [My u.]

With the Czech initiative still not fully funded though, according to public information, it is imperative that the European Peace Facility's Ukraine Assistance Fund be tapped to finance these procurements. Ukraine can't wait for this ammunition.
"

twitter.com/ColbyBadhwar/status/1775153015701262657?s=20

https://twitter.com/x/status/1775153015701262657

This is good news. The world's artillery shell stockpile is going to be depleted by this war.

The shortage is a windfall for countries at peace and with no prospect of war on the horizon to make a little money selling their artillery shell supply for a profit. Though most of those countries will have to restock later at higher prices after the war. Between the world's stockpile being depleted and most developed countries realizing they need to increase their stockpile, the artillery shell factories are going to be working close to full capacity for at least a decade after the war ends.

Is this believable? I so want it to be but how many times have these people let Ukraine down?

Ukraine Might Be Getting $34 Billion In American Weapons—And Soon

Assuming Speaker of the House Mike Johnson honors his word, a lot of money and a lot of badly-needed weapons are about to arrive at the front line in Ukraine.

www.forbes.com

I'll believe it when I see the bill land on the President's desk. However, it may be real this time. Republicans fed up with Johnson have been quitting strategically. The first one, Ken Buck quit to screw over another congresswoman Loren Boebert who was running to replace him. She moved districts because he district is more reliably Republican. By leaving when he did, she would have to resign her current seat to run in the special election and whoever wins the special election will likely win this fall.

Then another congressman from Wisconsin announced he was leaving just after the deadline when a special election can be held. After some date in April, it a congress person resigns, there will be no special election to fill the seat. The seat remains vacant until January.

The Republicans have such a small majority that only a few could resign after the deadline to hand the House over to the Democrats until January (when it's likely the Democrats will be taking control because of redistricting that has happened after 2022 due to court cases challenging the 2022 maps). When Ken Buck left he said he knew at least three Republicans who were ready to resign. And since then one has. There may be a few more. There were about six moderate Republicans (Ken Buck wasn't one of them) who had already announced they weren't running to re-election and were very unhappy with the extremists running the House.

The remaining discontents may have gone to Mike Johnson and told him that he either passed a bill giving aid to Ukraine or they would quit en masse just after the deadline handing control of the House to the Democrats for the rest of the year.