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Russia/Ukraine conflict

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My understanding from some of the Denys Davydov YouTubes is that Russia is working fast to build a rail line from their main hub at Rostov all the way over land ending (near or into?) Crimea. This would circumvent the choke point of the Kerch bridge, and be largely out of range of Ukranian attacks without significant Ukrainian advances - and of course, right now, due to lack of resources (thank you so much for this again (/s), Speaker Johnson), Ukraine is actually giving ground, not taking it.
The completion of this rail line, and the additional heft it will give to Russian logistics, together sound like a huge problem. And yes, although you can strike a rail line with long range missiles, my understanding is the easy repairability makes it a poor choice for those limited, expensive weapons. You really need to get within artillery range to shut such a thing down effectively, I'm supposing?
Curious what our other informed voices have heard or think about this?

In military terms attacking rail or roads to slow supply is called interdiction. It's easier to break rail lines than roads, but the Russians have dedicated forces that keep the rail lines moving. Russia recognized a long time ago that their military was more dependent on rail than any other nation so they developed these units (during the Soviet era) to ensure the rail lines stay in good repair. They are some of the best quality and low corruption units in the Russian military.

It would be most effective to take out bridges along the route. These rail support units can replace them, but it takes any unit more time to replace a bridge than it does to just replace broken rail.

A rail line close to the front lines but out of range of artillery could be interdicted with drones. Russian rail lines are very dependent on junction boxes every few km that have electronics in them. These are used to operate switches to redirect trains as well as monitor the tracks and send information back to a central office.

In the early days of trains they often would run into one another on crowded tracks. One train ends up running a little late and that puts all other trains in the area that might be using that piece of track that day in danger. Having someone know where all the trains are at one time and diverting trains that are getting close to another train is an important function. In the US the telegraph was first run parallel to all the rail lines for a reason. Their primary purpose was to communicate where the trains were to other stations on a rail line. When they weren't doing that they were free to communicate other messages which became a profit center for the companies running the telegraphs.

Modern rail systems have automated all these functions, but humans in a command center still monitor rail traffic and are tasked with diverting trains when two get too close to one another. Sidings exist to park slower moving trains to allow higher priority or faster trains to pass through. They also exist to allow trains moving in the opposite direction to pass one another.

The Russians rely on these junction boxes for monitoring the trains. In other countries there are monitoring devices too, but they are less obvious. I think a lot of countries have switched to GPS and the engines telling HQ directly. Take out these junction boxes and the Russian rail system will become much slower and have difficulty operating. Flying kamikaze drones into the junction boxes would make life difficult for the operators of the new rail line. The kamikaze drones could also be flown into sections of track. Subtle damage to the track won't be detected until a train hits that section and derails. The Ukrainians can also send special forces in to remove spikes from the rails which would also cause subtle damage that would be hard to detect until a train comes along.

It would be difficult to keep the rail line shut down, but Ukraine could tie down a significant number of rail troops maintaining the track and force the Russians to run out of spare electronics for the rail junction boxes. If a large number of rail support troops are bogged down trying to keep that line open, longer range drone attacks can be used to disrupt rail traffic in Russia.

I'm sure this has occurred to the Ukrainians, but they are holding back until the Azov route is done. Don't tell the enemy what you are capable of doing until you're ready.

This makes no sense. There is no vote scheduled, nor will there be until after Johnson allows a vote on Ukraine aid. The Democrats have no way to "turn up the heat" via motion to vacate. They have a carrot ("if it happens we'll vote to keep you"), but no stick.

As I understand it, the rule that allows Marjorie Taylor Greene to make the motion also gives her the power to call for a vote on his ouster at any time. There are only a hand full of Republicans who would vote to remove him. MTG is holding off the vote to see if he does what she wants in the future. She made the motion as a warning to him. If a vote is actually held on Ukraine aid, then the Democrats are telling Johnson they will vote against removing him. If the motion to remove him comes to the floor before any vote on Ukraine aid, they will vote with MTG and her allies to remove him.

It's a valid threat that tells Johnson that he is safe from the most radical members of his caucus if he does some minimal things the Democrats want.
 
There's pretty much been silence about the Gripen fighter jet since Sweden became a member of NATO. But deliberations are allegedly ongoing.

...] Sweden does not exclude the possibility of supplying its Gripen fighter jets to Ukraine, Swedish Defense Minister Pal Jonson said in an interview with the Kyiv Independent in Stockholm on March 28, adding that the "deliberations are ongoing."

Sweden has been hesitant to supply its jets, stressing that it first needs to join NATO before it can consider this option. The Nordic country joined the alliance on March 7, potentially opening the door for the transfer of the aircraft.

"The deliberations are ongoing, and they take place within the fighter jet coalition," Jonson said. [...

 
There's pretty much been silence about the Gripen fighter jet since Sweden became a member of NATO. But deliberations are allegedly ongoing.

...] Sweden does not exclude the possibility of supplying its Gripen fighter jets to Ukraine, Swedish Defense Minister Pal Jonson said in an interview with the Kyiv Independent in Stockholm on March 28, adding that the "deliberations are ongoing."

Sweden has been hesitant to supply its jets, stressing that it first needs to join NATO before it can consider this option. The Nordic country joined the alliance on March 7, potentially opening the door for the transfer of the aircraft.

"The deliberations are ongoing, and they take place within the fighter jet coalition," Jonson said. [...


Sweden would likely have to give Ukraine its own Gripens to make this happen. There aren't that many of them to begin with. Other NATO countries would have to agree to fill the air patrol roles those Gripens are handling now until Sweden can replace them (either building new ones or converting to another fighter).

The Ukrainians would also have to be trained on the Gripen and as people are finding out conversion training from Warsaw Pact/Russian aircraft to NATO/western aircraft is not trivial. Western aircraft are designed from the ground up for a different doctrine than Russian/Soviet doctrine aircraft. The Soviet model that the Russians still use requires very tight ground control over every aircraft in the air whereas western pilots are given far more autonomy. The aircraft are built around these doctrines.

When Germany inherited a number of aircraft from East Germany in the unification they divested themselves of those aircraft fairly quickly because making them work with NATO air doctrine was difficult. At that time West Germany was fully integrated into NATO's air defense plans. As eastern Europe joined NATO they had to adapt to the Russian aircraft as many of those countries had Russian aircraft, though the old Russian hardware has been getting retired in recent years and the war in Ukraine has accelerated the move of old Russian aircraft out of NATO inventories.
 
Sweden would likely have to give Ukraine its own Gripens to make this happen. There aren't that many of them to begin with. Other NATO countries would have to agree to fill the air patrol roles those Gripens are handling now until Sweden can replace them (either building new ones or converting to another fighter).

According to Wikipedia the Swedish Air Force currently has 71 Gripens in service. There has been talk of transferring at least 18 Swedish Gripens to UKR. And yes – as I understand it, those would have to come from Sweden. In addition to the 71 Gripens in service with the Swedish Air Force Sweden also has X amount of Gripens that are currently not in service. I believe the exact number of Swedish Gripen aircraft currently not in service is classified. Some if not not all of those Gripen aircraft may or may not require an unknown amount of work to be brought back to operational status.

The Ukrainians would also have to be trained on the Gripen and as people are finding out conversion training from Warsaw Pact/Russian aircraft to NATO/western aircraft is not trivial. Western aircraft are designed from the ground up for a different doctrine than Russian/Soviet doctrine aircraft. The Soviet model that the Russians still use requires very tight ground control over every aircraft in the air whereas western pilots are given far more autonomy. The aircraft are built around these doctrines.

When Germany inherited a number of aircraft from East Germany in the unification they divested themselves of those aircraft fairly quickly because making them work with NATO air doctrine was difficult. At that time West Germany was fully integrated into NATO's air defense plans. As eastern Europe joined NATO they had to adapt to the Russian aircraft as many of those countries had Russian aircraft, though the old Russian hardware has been getting retired in recent years and the war in Ukraine has accelerated the move of old Russian aircraft out of NATO inventories.

Ukraine has publicly stated that they want an Air Force with ~200 Western 4th gen fighter aircraft. The current amount of F-16s with the possible addition of 18 Swedish Gripens is nowhere near that 200 number...
 
According to Wikipedia the Swedish Air Force currently has 71 Gripens in service. There has been talk of transferring at least 18 Swedish Gripens to UKR. And yes – as I understand it, those would have to come from Sweden. In addition to the 71 Gripens in service with the Swedish Air Force Sweden also has X amount of Gripens that are currently not in service. I believe the exact number of Swedish Gripen aircraft currently not in service is classified. Some if not not all of those Gripen aircraft may or may not require an unknown amount of work to be brought back to operational status.



Ukraine has publicly stated that they want an Air Force with ~200 Western 4th gen fighter aircraft. The current amount of F-16s with the possible addition of 18 Swedish Gripens is nowhere near that 200 number...
I suspect that they can gain air dominance with far fewer than 200 Western aircraft
 
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According to Wikipedia the Swedish Air Force currently has 71 Gripens in service. There has been talk of transferring at least 18 Swedish Gripens to UKR. And yes – as I understand it, those would have to come from Sweden. In addition to the 71 Gripens in service with the Swedish Air Force Sweden also has X amount of Gripens that are currently not in service. I believe the exact number of Swedish Gripen aircraft currently not in service is classified. Some if not not all of those Gripen aircraft may or may not require an unknown amount of work to be brought back to operational status.

Rehabbing existing airframes usually takes less time than building new ones. But it will take some effort.

Ukraine has publicly stated that they want an Air Force with ~200 Western 4th gen fighter aircraft. The current amount of F-16s with the possible addition of 18 Swedish Gripens is nowhere near that 200 number...

It's going to take a while to train up a force that large. They started the war with less than 100 combat aircraft and have lost some of those pilots to career ending injuries or killed. Some of the pilots training on the F-16 now are new recruits training from scratch.

Not only do pilots need to be trained, but ground crews too.

I suspect that they can gain air dominance with far fewer than 200 Western aircraft

I doubt they will. This is what the Russians claim to have:
List of active Russian military aircraft - Wikipedia

I'm sure some percentage are lost to accidents, worn out from the war, and just combat losses and they may have been lying about strength at the start of the war, but the VDV is still a potent force. Because their training was poor before the war, they have been of limited effectiveness, but the force of active aircraft is much more than 200.

The anti-air environment in Ukraine has forced both sides' aircraft to behave as hunted animals and scurry about at low altitude, popping up to launch ordinance and scurry back to their bases. Air superiority won't be achieved by anyone until the other side's air defenses are significantly degraded. That's going to require thousands of HARM missiles and many, many Wild Weasel sorties.

200 western aircraft will give Ukraine a lot of ordinance carriers to launch Storm Shadows, Tauruses, and other missiles at the Russians. They will definitely help, but they are not going to gain air superiority. To do that against Russia's air defense network will require a force the size of the USAF and every HARM missile in the NATO inventory.

And there will be losses. Some due to Russian SAMs, and some due to missile attacks on airfields. You can be very certain that Russia will make taking out airfields a much higher priority once there are western fighters in service

The Russians are going to be very interested in where the western jets are based. The F-16s are especially vulnerable to airfield attacks. The Russians can interdict those fields with missiles filled with spare parts instead of warheads. Spread debris around the airfield and the ground crews will have to sweep the field before the F-16s can fly again. Keep doing it and the field is effectively shut down.

The Gripens are designed for the sort of environment that Ukraine is dealing with and they are more tolerant of Russian airfield attacks.

Seems like this is a problem we should probably be taking more seriously....


Not just for the war, but for everything else. The Russians have become good at this kind of thing. And they can attack the west asymmetrically with these attacks. There is no similar ecosystem in Russia to attack.

Some interesting talk regarding Russia's Zircon wonder missile. Not quite as good as they say. Who'd have thought?


Most modern Russian weapons systems are mostly smoke and mirrors. None are as good as they claim. Few have appeared in Ukraine because they aren't really up to the mission.
 
This is a must-read article from the Institute for the Study of War. Of course the people who most need to read it are the most likely not to. *** sigh ***

Denying Russia’s Only Strategy for Success

Russia cannot defeat Ukraine or the West - and will likely lose - if the West mobilizes its resources to resist the Kremlin. The West’s existing and latent capability dwarfs that of Russia.
[...] The Kremlin needs the United States to choose inaction and embrace the false inevitability that Russia will prevail in Ukraine.
[...] Those whose perspective aligns with the Kremlin’s are not ipso facto Russian dupes.
[...] The United States must defeat Russia’s efforts to alter American will and decision-making for reasons that transcend Ukraine. For the United States to deter, win, or help win any future war, US decisions must be timely, connected to our interests, values, and ground truth, but above all – these decisions must be ours.
 
Thanks to all of you who recommended Timothy Snyder's History of Ukraine class and substack.
If you haven't seen it yet and want to be a force for good, this post has some excellent recommendations, four of which are US 501(c)3 so, great place to donate any TSLA profits you can spare through DAF or direct stock donation:
 
Thanks to all of you who recommended Timothy Snyder's History of Ukraine class and substack.
If you haven't seen it yet and want to be a force for good, this post has some excellent recommendations, four of which are US 501(c)3 so, great place to donate any TSLA profits you can spare through DAF or direct stock donation:
Anyone know if these places to donate are legit or if they're scams???-
 
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200 western aircraft will give Ukraine a lot of ordinance carriers to launch Storm Shadows, Tauruses, and other missiles at the Russians. [...

As I understand it, they can also be used for attacking the Russian Dictator's jets that are currently dropping glide bombs at Ukrainian positions and cities. And they can be used to take down the cruise missiles that the Dictator launches at UKR. I don't know if they also can be used to shoot down the Dictator's ballistic missiles though.
 
Anyone know if these places to donate are legit or if they're scams???-

I wouldn't have posted this if I thought any of these were scams. Prof Snyder has extensive connections in Ukraine and I don't believe he would have recommended any scams either.

501(c)3 status requires a certain amount of paperwork to verify/qualify (although that's not foolproof)

Razom was recommended to me by many other reputable organizations and there's this: Razom Inc. | Charity Navigator Profile

There's also this: https://www.charitywatch.org/charity-donating-articles/top-rated-charities-providing-aid-in-ukraine if you want to go the more traditional route. WCK and ERD are two listed organizations that I support as well (ERD also allows you to target support to El Ahli hospital in Gaza, I haven't tried to target my gifts there to Ukraine)
 
Anyone know if these places to donate are legit or if they're scams???-

If you haven't heard of a charity before, it's always good to do a search on them. Most scams are going to show up as scams in a search if they have been around more than a few weeks. And the legitimate ones will show up with people attesting to their legitimacy.

I'm also sure that Timothy Snyder has vetted any organization he recommends. He is will enough connected with enough people in that region and Americans with ties to the region that he probably knows the principles at the charities personally.

As I understand it, they can also be used for attacking the Russian Dictator's jets that are currently dropping glide bombs at Ukrainian positions and cities. And they can be used to take down the cruise missiles that the Dictator launches at UKR. I don't know if they also can be used to shoot down the Dictator's ballistic missiles though.

Ballistic missiles are tough to shoot down and there are only a few systems in the world that can do it. The Patriot is the best known, but all are ground based.

To intercept aircraft with other aircraft, especially aircraft trying to do pop up attacks requires that the fighters fly CAP (Combat Air Patrol). For example US Navy carriers have at least a couple of aircraft flying CAP 24/7 unless they are in port. When they are in port anywhere near a potential enemy land based aircraft are airborne flying CAP.

The Russians fly MiG-31s on CAP outside of the range of Ukrainian air defense and aircraft carrying massive missiles designed to shoot down US AWACS and tankers in wartime. They have been using them to shoot down any Ukrainian aircraft that are flying high enough to be spotted on radar.

The Ukrainians have no airspace that is out of range of these missile carriers. Any Ukrainian aircraft flying CAP would become targets for the MiG-31s and Russian S-400s. The west have no air to air missiles with the comparable range to the missiles carried by the MiG-31s.

Any western jets the Ukrainians get will immediately be targets of an array of Russian weapons. They will need to be very careful to avoid getting shot down. For the most part they will be missile trucks launching NATO ground attack weapons into the Russian lines and no more.