Safety Score Jail Off Ramp?

[OncomingStorm]

This might just be my crazy theory, but I have seen some other people mention it in passing and am curious how many other people are in the same boat. I've been queued for the beta since late Dec in safety score hell lol, but have a qualifying score. My car has always gotten the latest updates fairly quickly until recently with 2022.8.2, a few days after that was released i was updated to 2022.4.5.17, which is where i'm at now, dispite the fact that the 8.2 release has been pushing pretty hard.

Now, after looking at the stats for both version the following seem to be true...

• 4.5.17 has ONLY been rolled out to cars in US and Canada
• No car updated to 8.2 had been previously updated to 4.5.17
• 4.5.17 has only been pushed to 3's and Y's

what this tells me (I hope lol) is that those with the 4.5.17 firmware are in "position" to get enrolled in the beta with the next big roll out. I'm not entirely sure why its targeted to 3's and Y's only but I added it because I did see at least one person who was in the queue get updated to 8.2 but that was on an S and not stemming from the 4.5.17 firmware, so the theory should hold.... anyone else in the same boat?

(sorry if asked and answered, couldn't find a similar thread)

 

[Kyrne]

I'm hoping you're right.

I have a model S and also get updates pretty quickly. Been on 2022.4.5.5 for a while. Maybe there was some urgent model 3/Y fix that S/X didn't need?

IIRC in the past people who imminently got into the beta were held back versions so they didn't need to downgrade (think Christmas time, people complaining they didn't get the update until they got FSD).

 

[tholly]

I'm in the same boat, but am on 4.5.3 w/ my MY, even though I have it set to Advanced schedule for updates, etc. I had been getting them quickly, but haven't received an update since 4.5.3 was pushed out. I know there are others that are the same/similar....98/99/100 Safety Score, Advanced Updates, 100+ miles, FSD Beta button pushed, in the US, but stuck on 4.5.3. I've done 916 miles in the past 30 days, and around 2,000 since opting in.

 

[Raurele]

I got the 4.5.3 —> .17 update yesterday.

2022 MYP

Opted in January 5th and have driven 8000 miles since then 3900 in the last 30 days. My score is 99.

I’m really hoping I’ll be accepted soon. And it seems like it is the correct guess as to why we got this update not the newer one. The newer one has people with old computers. .17 only has the new ones.

 

[OncomingStorm]

I got the 4.5.3 —> .17 update yesterday.

2022 MYP

Opted in January 5th and have driven 8000 miles since then 3900 in the last 30 days. My score is 99.

I’m really hoping I’ll be accepted soon. And it seems like it is the correct guess as to why we got this update not the newer one. The newer one has people with old computers. .17 only has the new ones.

oh good catch yeah, the .17 is only 2021 and 2022 cars... i'm even more convinced now!! haha

 

[tholly]

Interesting....I wonder if .17 will pop for me today? I have a 2022 MY still on 4.5.3 even with advanced updates selected.

 

[Raurele]

Interesting....I wonder if .17 will pop for me today? I have a 2022 MY still on 4.5.3 even with advanced updates selected.

I was on that for a long time. Was weird seeing multiple updates come and go without getting one. Keep our fingers crossed guys. Can’t wait to drive my MYP like normal again. I just want to be able to take windy mountain roads fast again! (Without using AP)

 

[OncomingStorm]

haha right, after 3 months i almost dont even care about the beta anymore, i just wanna drive without constantly having to fear for a FCW rofl.

 

[JulienW]

Trying to read tea leaves in the dark with a blind fold on.

 

[tholly]

oh good catch yeah, the .17 is only 2021 and 2022 cars... i'm even more convinced now!! haha

I got pushed .17 from .3 earlier today. 2022 MY.

 

[Kyrne]

I got pushed .17 from .3 earlier today. 2022 MY.

Very interesting! Not sure it's a guarantee but they are obviously keeping some of us on a lower version in case we are chosen to get pushed onto FSD.

Seeing plenty of 2021/2022 3s and Ys getting 8.2

 

[HappyPanda]

I noticed this as well (before seeing this post), and another interesting datapoint that supports the theory is that all cars on 2022.4.5.17 have Autopilot 3 hardware, according to TeslaFi. There seems to be an update fork from 2022.4.5.3 to either 2022.4.5.17 (US+Canada with AP 3) or 2022.8.2 (mix of countries and AP versions). No one who has updated to 2022.4.5.17 has updated to anything newer as of now, so it does feel like some sort of "staging area" to me. It would be interesting to know how many people getting 2022.4.5.17 are in the FSD Beta queue. As a datapoint, I am in the queue and got that update yesterday (2022 M3LR).

 

[OncomingStorm]

yeah i'm convinced we are on a placeholder for the beta track. still not 1 car on the 8.2 has been updated from 4.5.17, its gotta be 2 separate branches... not impossible its for some other unknown reason but i can't imagen what that would be lol.

 

[Fosomo]

I was thinking the same thing! Hopefully this is the case!

I have a 2019 M3 in Canada and I've been on 2022.4.5.4 for quite a while now! I'm always comparing against my mother who has a 2019 M3 too and she received 8.2 two days ago, but she does not have FSD so I think that could be it.

I've been waiting for so long for the FSD Beta rollout in Canada! Held a perfect 100 safety score since safety score was pushed to Canada but was dinged down to 99 this weekend unfortunately... I sure hope I still qualify, it really pisses me off to have paid 10k on FSD and not being able to use the same feature set as the US.

 

[Raurele]

Well, there goes that idea.

 

[OncomingStorm]

booooo i'm gonna remain delusional thanks! hahaha

 

[OncomingStorm]

well now i'm just puzzled lol. its unusual that i haven't gotten the latest, until now i've been upgraded to the current version within a day or two if it being released. 8.2 is clearly the public branch given the numbers, which leaves us wondering then wtf lol. not impossible its some kind of A/B testing but even that doesn't seem super likely. and its still very clear the .17 branch is being segregated from the 8.2 branch since there are 0 cars that have had both. given they've changed their release methodology of late i guess we shouldn't be surprised at oddities like this but still! haha

 

[TankCa]

I've been curious about this too. 2022 MS - FSD 100 SS been at .3 for a while now.

 

[HappyPanda]

Maybe it's a red herring, but one TeslaFi user has updated from 2022.4.5.17 to 2022.3.101.1. A few FSD 10.10.2 (2021.44.30.21) users have also updated to that.

 

[Raurele]

Maybe it's a red herring, but one TeslaFi user has updated from 2022.4.5.17 to 2022.3.101.1. A few FSD 10.10.2 (2021.44.30.21) users have also updated to that.

That’s a downgrade that’s almost a month old. Most likely from a service appointment had to push old software.