Seems like FSD is a complete crock

[diplomat33]

Making a fusion reactor is also "definitely possible" but should someone pre-sell one to consumers?

Only if they can actually make one.

 

[EVNow]

I was referring to your repeated statement that Musk’s approach “just do it” is a predictor for future success.

Can you show me where I said its a predictor for future success ? Should be easy because they are apparently "repeated".

BTW, my stance on FSD is not a secret.

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable

 

[EVNow]

Making a fusion reactor is also "definitely possible" but should someone pre-sell one to consumers?

Only if other companies have already achieved it in a limited, commercial way.

Basic question - if Tesla can achieve Waymo level of FSD, would you be happy ? If Waymo can get to level 4, why can't Tesla ?

 

[jebinc]

Only if other companies have already achieved it in a limited, commercial way.

Basic question - if Tesla can achieve Waymo level of FSD, would you be happy ? If Waymo can get to level 4, why can't Tesla ?

Different tech/approach? I have no idea, but doesn’t Waymo use Lidar tech where Tesla defies its use? That could by why there may be different outcomes.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Only if other companies have already achieved it in a limited, commercial way.

Basic question - if Tesla can achieve Waymo level of FSD, would you be happy ? If Waymo can get to level 4, why can't Tesla ?

No, because Waymo has not achieved any level of FSD yet. They still require a human test driver. If Tesla can achieve what Waymo is currently trying to achieve (level 4 in limited areas and weather conditions) then I would be amazed and very happy. Though definitely not as happy as people who already purchased FSD since I believe the market price for that is far higher than $6k.

 

[EVNow]

No, because Waymo has not achieved any level of FSD yet. They still require a human test driver. If Tesla can achieve what Waymo is currently trying to achieve (level 4 in limited areas and weather conditions) then I would be amazed and very happy. Though definitely not as happy as people who already purchased FSD since I believe the market price for that is far higher than $6k.

Clearly, Waymo is at level 4. From what I understand when run in FSD mode, the safety driver is not allowed to intervene - if he does the car just goes to the side and stops.

 

[EVNow]

Different tech/approach? I have no idea, but doesn’t Waymo use Lidar tech where Tesla defies its use? That could by why there may be different outcomes.

Lidar just gets you there faster. Even Waymo uses a lot of vision, you can’t see traffic lights with Lidar, for eg.

AI has progressed a lot since the DARPA challenge days. No need to use the same crutches.

 

[happyzod]

If you watch presentations from other AV companies they also try to do path prediction of other actors. It's an absolutely critical part of autonomous vehicle software and nothing new. Whether or not neural nets will work better than heuristics, who knows. I look forward to seeing since right now autopilot is horrible at predicting when people are merging into your lane. Someone can be one third of the way into your lane and the car acts like they're not about to merge...

As I said, that's what makes Tesla's approach unique. Everyone else has a rules based approach, tesla is taking a learning based approach.

 

[darxsys]

As I said, that's what makes Tesla's approach unique. Everyone else has a rules based approach, tesla is taking a learning based approach.

How accurate is your statement really? Waymo uses neural networks together with other tools.

 

[happyzod]

How accurate is your statement really? Waymo uses neural networks together with other tools.

It's accurate in the context in which it was stated.

 

[diplomat33]

No, because Waymo has not achieved any level of FSD yet. They still require a human test driver.

I would not say that they have not achieved "any level". In my opinion, Waymo has achieved L4 geofenced or pretty close to it. Their vehicles are driving autonomously and accepting passengers. Yes, Waymo has test drivers for safety reasons but they are not required for the car to operate.

According to the latest California DMV report, Waymo has the lowest disengagement rate:

"According to the reported data, Waymo once again had the best-performing autonomous vehicles in California with one disengagement every 11,017 miles. That performance marks a 50 percent reduction in the rate and a 96 percent increase in the average miles traveled between disengagements compared to the 2017 numbers. In 2016, Waymo had one disengagement every 5,128 miles. Waymo also drove significantly more miles, up from 352,000 miles in 2017 to 1.2 million miles in 2018, which makes the performance even more impressive."
Waymo autonomous vehicles leave Apple in the dust

 

[powertoold]

I think you should look into their definition of disengagement. It might mean if the software disengages rather than the driver disengaging.

 

[EVNow]

I think you should look into their definition of disengagement. It might mean if the software disengages rather than the driver disengaging.

IIRC, either s/w disengages or driver disengages because otherwise it would be dangerous.

If the car sits at a left turn for a long time forcing the driver to disengage, it doesn't count.

 

[EVNow]

Looks like we are slowly getting into the trough of disillusionment for FSD.

5 Trends Emerge in the Gartner Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2018

 

[Daniel in SD]

Clearly, Waymo is at level 4. From what I understand when run in FSD mode, the safety driver is not allowed to intervene - if he does the car just goes to the side and stops.

I'll believe it when I see it! I'm solidly in the "troth of disillusionment". haha.
I bet there are lots of ways that everyone fudges the disengagement numbers.

 

[diplomat33]

I'll believe it when I see it! I'm solidly in the "troth of disillusionment". haha.
I bet there are lots of ways that everyone fudges the disengagement numbers.

Sounds like you need to ride in a Waymo car to believe?

 

[Daniel in SD]

Sounds like you need to ride in a Waymo car to believe?

No, I'll believe it when they remove the safety drivers. I'm sure they work pretty well but in order for me to personally confirm that they're better than a human I'd have to move to Arizona and use Waymo One for years! I like it better here

 

[EVNow]

I'll believe it when I see it! I'm solidly in the "troth of disillusionment". haha.
I bet there are lots of ways that everyone fudges the disengagement numbers.

My idea is to inform, not convince

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Looks like we are slowly getting into the trough of disillusionment for FSD.

5 Trends Emerge in the Gartner Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2018

My idea is to inform,

Thank you! According to this informative graph, we will be there in just 10 (or more) short years! And that is for Level 4, which will apparently spend substantially more time in the nice comfortable trough. Somehow level 5 is not even at the peak of expectations.

 

[diplomat33]

Thank you! According to this informative graph, we will be there in just 10 (or more) short years! And that is for Level 4, which will apparently spend substantially more time in the nice comfortable trough. Somehow level 5 is not even at the peak of expectations.

10 years is to get to the "plateau of productivity". We will get to L4 way before that.