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Sell your ICE car ASAP
- Thread starter joefee
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- Autonomous Vehicles
It's like sports handicappers talking about the price of beer at the stadium in regards to the point spread of the game.
Do these guys get paid to come up with this crap? I blame the schools.
Do these guys get paid to come up with this crap? I blame the schools.
I think there's a pretty good chance that used ICE prices will fall significantly over the next several years as EVs become more mass market and more desired.
It doesn't seem likely to be a step function, and if it were a step function, it'd probably be late next year or so, when the 3 production is wide open and Tesla starts making real inroads on autonomous driving.
It doesn't seem likely to be a step function, and if it were a step function, it'd probably be late next year or so, when the 3 production is wide open and Tesla starts making real inroads on autonomous driving.
Chopr147
Active Member
Used ICE sales IMHO will not change too much for many years. Remember with all these new EV's coming out by 2020, to get one it will still be a "new" car purchase. And the $$$ needed to buy one.
Used cars I think will still be in demand for at least another 8-10 years
Used cars I think will still be in demand for at least another 8-10 years
mspohr
Well-Known Member
Interesting YouTube video of a long talk from Julian about how disruptive electric cars will be to the auto market.
Within the next 5 years, it will be cheaper to own an EV than an ICE car (5 year TCO). After that, fossil cars are doomed.
(This is a long talk but well worth watching)
Within the next 5 years, it will be cheaper to own an EV than an ICE car (5 year TCO). After that, fossil cars are doomed.
Mark Z
Active Member
After the ICE price falls, buying one for use during long waits for auto body repairs of an EV could be cheaper than a rental car.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
That's already true in some cases. We've seen more than one Tesla owner go that route. I just don't remember if it was posted here or on reddit.
Just be sure to buy one retroactively when needed not proactively. No reason to pay maintenance and risk depreciation during the time you don't need it.
deonb
Active Member
My ICE car (F350 Dually) pulls 20000 lbs for 400 miles between stops.
Which exact EV is going to obsolete that by 2019?
Which exact EV is going to obsolete that by 2019?
EVs are not going to replace every use case right now. But when the total cost of ownership drops below that for ICE, it will be disruptive. There will likely be an inflection point where the market shifts over quickly.
This will result in softening demand for gasoline, which could actually keep gas prices lower long-term. So this will be a complex process.
This will result in softening demand for gasoline, which could actually keep gas prices lower long-term. So this will be a complex process.
There are 265 million cars with an average age of 11.4 years.
There are 0.65 million plug in cars as of June 2017 with about a 3 year average age.
So 1.5 years and all hell is going to break loose and folk with buy 1,000,000 EV's a year? That's not even enough to dent it. It's the magnitude folk who are enthusiasts can't grasp.
You need to talk to more people if you believe that EV are going to have a sudden effect on ICE pricing. Many people do not want to even try an EV no matter what the price. Some will not look at EVs until their favorite brand (like Toyota) has them and they are very cheap.
There are 0.65 million plug in cars as of June 2017 with about a 3 year average age.
So 1.5 years and all hell is going to break loose and folk with buy 1,000,000 EV's a year? That's not even enough to dent it. It's the magnitude folk who are enthusiasts can't grasp.
You need to talk to more people if you believe that EV are going to have a sudden effect on ICE pricing. Many people do not want to even try an EV no matter what the price. Some will not look at EVs until their favorite brand (like Toyota) has them and they are very cheap.
Agreed. When the average car buyer realizes that an EV is cheaper to own and operate, demand will spike and car manufacturers will have to respond or lose market share. That has barely begun to happen, but it has started. I think we are at least 3 years away from that inflection point. Once that happens, the transition to EVs will take a few decades. But it will happen no matter what the price of gasoline is.
mspohr
Well-Known Member
That's why you should sell your ICE used car now and not wait for the price to go down a few years from now.
mspohr
Well-Known Member
In two years, every major automaker (like Toyota, Ford, GM, BMW, Mercedes, Volvo, VW, etc.) will be offering a competitive EV. In just a few years, they will be cheaper to operate than ICE cars.
People tend to overestimate the amount of change that can take place in the short term and underestimate the amount of change that can take place over the longer term. There will be a tipping point which will start in a few years and snowball quickly. By 2030 most fossil cars could be replaced by EVs.
And I have done that exactly - zero times - so far since I have owned and driven cars.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
This only makes sense if one can afford to buy a replacement EV today. If I sell my old Honda Civic, I pocket 7k, but then have to spend $ on a new car immediately.
If my Civic is only worth 3k or 1k in a few years due to EVs I really don't care. How much is a 10 year old econobox worth under normal situations anyways? I got my $ worth out of it and have no regrets.
mspohr
Well-Known Member
I too have an old ICE that I use as a backup/going to the dump truck. It's 18 years old with nearly 200,000 miles. It's worth next to nothing so I will keep it. I only put gas in it a few times a year so not expensive to run. I'm not worried about it declining in value.
However, I wouldn't buy a new ICE car.
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