Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[SebastienBonny]

TSLA pretty strong here premarket.
Still have 150 CC for friday. Should we stay around this SP, I will roll to next week 155 or 152.50.
If earnings are considered good by WS, I can't see us getting a higher than 10% rise after last weeks (lower 100s to 140+ rise already). Unless there is a huge surprise on the call.
I think my options are better there than holding it for this week, cause I don't want them excercised.

Only holding should we go down to like 135 today.

 

[chrsk]

TSLA pretty strong here premarket.
Still have 150 CC for friday. Should we stay around this SP, I will roll to next week 155 or 152.50.
If earnings are considered good by WS, I can't see us getting a higher than 10% rise after last weeks (lower 100s to 140+ rise already). Unless there is a huge surprise on the call.
I think my options are better there than holding it for this week, cause I don't want them excercised.

Only holding should we go down to like 135 today.

TSLA is indeed holding up quite well. Down only 1% to(142,4$) in pre market, with SP500 futures down 0,8%.

Guessing it will fall at open, but who knows.

 

[juanmedina]

I am all in with mostly with $162.5cc and a few $165cc for Friday. We shall see what happens.

 

[OrthoSurg]

With miss on P&D numbers
I don’t see how they can a beat on EPS when they lowered prices and should have lower margin.
I can only see a sell the news whatever the earnings will be.
For the first time of my life I feel like buying puts and rolling down my CCs at the money.
If it’s too easy then it must go up and do the opposite, no?

 

[CHGolferJim]

With miss on P&D numbers
I don’t see how they can a beat on EPS when they lowered prices and should have lower margin.
I can only see a sell the news whatever the earnings will be.
For the first time of my life I feel like buying puts and rolling down my CCs at the money.
If it’s too easy then it must go up and do the opposite, no?

Price cuts were after 4th Qtr except for the last few days’ rebates?

 

[mrmage]

With miss on P&D numbers
I don’t see how they can a beat on EPS when they lowered prices and should have lower margin.
I can only see a sell the news whatever the earnings will be.
For the first time of my life I feel like buying puts and rolling down my CCs at the money.
If it’s too easy then it must go up and do the opposite, no?

I closed my options earlier this week because I didn't have a good sense of the direction at this point, with ER coming out. The profit estimates on here put Tesla 10% higher than the street. If that happens, I don't see the SP blowing past the 150 call wall this week after the recent run.

Still, writing options is about not getting too surprised, so I'm inclined to wait until after earnings tomorrow before opening any positions. Even so, the premiums for this week look pretty good for a couple days, with the call/put walls at 130/150 offering some protection. If the SP moves towards one end of that range or the other today and RSI supports the move, I may give it a shot with strikes at that range.

 

[Chenkers]

It looks like MM's have been trying to keep TSLA below the $140 call wall coming into earnings. I'd expect us still to go up a bit more before the end of the day but then macro's can still get worse.

By the way, IV for this week is currently sitting at around 135%. It was 75% a few days ago and I'd expect it to return to something closer to that after earnings. IV crush anyone?

Edit: So a $150CC is currently around $3. If IV dropped to 85% tomorrow, then the share price would need to jump up to $148.5 for that $150CC to still be worth around $3. At this stage I'll sit this one out. For those who got in earlier or for higher strikes, enjoy the crush.

 

[CHGolferJim]

I closed my options earlier this week because I didn't have a good sense of the direction at this point, with ER coming out. The profit estimates on here put Tesla 10% higher than the street. If that happens, I don't see the SP blowing past the 150 call wall this week after the recent run.

Still, writing options is about not getting too surprised, so I'm inclined to wait until after earnings tomorrow before opening any positions. Even so, the premiums for this week look pretty good for a couple days, with the call/put walls at 130/150 offering some protection. If the SP moves towards one end of that range or the other today and RSI supports the move, I may give it a shot with strikes at that range.

Agree. I was also thinking of waiting until Thu/Fri for my “core CC”, but might do half today if price holds just in case of an IV and SP drop towards Max-Pain ($138) after ER.

 

[ReddyLeaf]

Great info above! Thanks. I used the MMD to buyback a bunch of -c160s and -c165s for small profits. I’m planning on selling -c150s on the run up this afternoon. Rolled a few down to -c150s and -c155s in another account. Holding steady on -p140s until Friday unless we get some kind of massive break to 150 today.

Edit: Yesterday, yet another gloomy video was posted by Money Time Machine which specifically referenced TSLA & AAPL as being late to the party reaching his resistance line. He is still predicting this is a bull trap and the market, including AAPL/TSLA will drop by next week. I’m planning to take this in stride and continue selling near ATM straddles/strangles. If we continue down, I’ll just DCA down with any premiums. I’m ok to buy another 1000 shares in 2023, but then that’s my limit, really, really, really, this time. As always, be careful and don’t over leverage. GLTA.

 

[vikings123]

With miss on P&D numbers
I don’t see how they can a beat on EPS when they lowered prices and should have lower margin.
I can only see a sell the news whatever the earnings will be.
For the first time of my life I feel like buying puts and rolling down my CCs at the money.
If it’s too easy then it must go up and do the opposite, no?

I don't think EPS miss for Q4 matters. There might be a knee jerk reaction in AH but then all ears will be on the call for guidance/margins going forward.

I'd say we are in a new bull market and just goes to show how big of a role technicals play in deciding what the market does. Just look at MSFT had bad earnings barely meeting lowered expectations and they are almost green. And it's not like the guidance was strong either.

I'm not suggesting that you don't buy puts but don't do both: Buy protective puts and sell covered calls close to the SP.

 

[bingoz]

ER is a 50/50 event for the stock. NFLX missed the EPS, beat the subscribers estimate and the CEO stepped down that made it +7-8% the next day.

I think there will be a good a bad and an ugly in the ER report/guidance. It's just the matter of how the market wants to interpret it. Just be ready for both cases, 125 or 155 tomorrow.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

mostly sitting out. I have a 1/27 -126p/-135c short-strangle, just to gamble with, but waiting until after earnings. I'm expecting a MMD thursday morning, even if earnings are good. Will sell a ITM -p (probably for 2/03) if that happens. Which I guess shows a sentiment of not wanting to be in front of the steamroller collecting pennies this time around.

So I split up the -135c to 143c (1:3) just in case IV crushes after earnings (will roll up and out if there's a gamma squeeze). rolled up the -126p to -130p to collect more premium, since max pain is 138. Let's see what tomorrow brings.

 

[Max Plaid]

With miss on P&D numbers
I don’t see how they can a beat on EPS when they lowered prices and should have lower margin.
I can only see a sell the news whatever the earnings will be.
For the first time of my life I feel like buying puts and rolling down my CCs at the money.
If it’s too easy then it must go up and do the opposite, no?

I think EPS and revenues will beat because Q4 is probably the only time that the maximum prices were paid for any cars, yes there were discounts, but very late in the quarter and for very few cars

However, I think guidance - growth/volumes/margins, and the tone of the ER will be more important, if Elon starts pumping the stock then people might assume he's about to sell, if he's all doom-and-gloom over the economy, will send it down too

However, it's hard to argue against the announcement of the expansion of Nevada for 4680's and Semi production

CyberTruck news can be huge catalyst, or killer, and Tesla Energy is the joker in the pack, right?

 

[EVNow]

Check this out. Also see yesterday's Tesla Daily for details on how ASP could be affected by various price cuts in China & US, differences in Mix, Forex rates etc etc

Updated now for Rob Maurer:

View attachment 899513

 

[kabin]

This is a tough one. I haven't decided which way to go on an earnings trade/hedge. TSLA is still spending heavily with future factory starts and new vehicle production at a time when wall street wants companies to cut spending and layoff employees. I'm guessing SP doesn't jump huge in either direction so maybe a wide strangle in the March monthlies.

 

[SebastienBonny]

Of course we can beat eps estimate. We like always do that .
But there are indeed more important numbers like margins and where Elon thinks Tesla will be next year.

Additionally we have Cybertruck and Giga news that could drive the stock.

 

[dc_h]

I think EPS and revenues will beat because Q4 is probably the only time that the maximum prices were paid for any cars, yes there were discounts, but very late in the quarter and for very few cars

However, I think guidance - growth/volumes/margins, and the tone of the ER will be more important, if Elon starts pumping the stock then people might assume he's about to sell, if he's all doom-and-gloom over the economy, will send it down too

However, it's hard to argue against the announcement of the expansion of Nevada for 4680's and Semi production

CyberTruck news can be huge catalyst, or killer, and Tesla Energy is the joker in the pack, right?

Guidance is the key. I have only 5 CC's at 150 and a 130 call I rolled up from last week and another 5 @ 150 for Feb 10th, which were 142's I rolled out last week for some credit. I also rolled out Feb 17 calls I bought late 2021 at 310 presplit, when we were around 1000. I had to pay and roll from 120 to 140, which hurts, but they won't be wiped out immediately if earnings and guidance don't delight the market. I hate having my thoughts focused on short term issues and not being scientific and disciplined about selling calls. I expect to be disappointed not to sell 20 160 CC's this afternoon, but think if they affirm 50% growth for 2023 and 2024, the stock should have a solid bounce up.
My 130 call reminds me to be cautious when there is a chance for a solid run. If Yoona's bounce from 139 is for real, we could already be in our second leg of our bounce from the bottom.

 

[traxila]

Holding my remaining 150 Cs to cover me if SP shoots above 170 and starts messing with my CCs. Did sell five of them earlier. Rolled my Jan 27 165 CCs to 180 CCs earlier.

Chances are slim to none, but I am done being caught flat footed. Hedge is a hedge. Would love a 165 print for the EOW



Closed out my Jan 27 140/125 BPS for plus 4.40.
Closed out my Jan 27 128/122 BPS for plus 2.5.
Closed out my Jan 27 121 P.


Looking to buy APRIL 145 P as well, but only if my target price is hit.

 

[EnzoXYZ]

Remember it is OK to sit out earnings. There is next week to look forward to.

 

[Max Plaid]

Remember it is OK to sit out earnings. There is next week to look forward to.

But that would be soooooo boring!