And it looks like I'm going to have some ~$30 ITM positions to roll this week - I haven't had experience that far ITM to see strike improvement / credit. I'll have a better idea later in the week at this closer level and I'll post those position rolls when I do them.
I posted this earlier - with the drop to $700ish these positions were about $50 ITM and on a 2 week roll were good for a minimal net credit and a $10 strike improvement (770 to 760; 760 to 750).
So question here... at first I said, holy moly that's a low strike point! But I'm wondering if the reason you aren't concerned is you ability to time the roll? Are you going to roll it up if stock surges before it hits 715? And that's why it doesn't concern you? Right into the teeth of the Max Pain!
I'm sure that the ability to roll is part of
@Lycanthrope calculation.
Something I did back in January, as a result of reading about the general idea from others, is that I somewhat intentionally put myself into a reasonably deep ITM contract, to get some experience with rolling one of these. How well did it work? What were the strike improvement and credit dynamics?
With a single contract the actual gains or losses were always small and I like putting myself into learning situations like that. What I learned at the beginning of the year was that 10% / $80 ITM wasn't a thing. It was deep ITM in the sense that I wasn't going to roll right back to ATM, but I was still generating some cash flow and time while waiting for things to turn around (that was a put, and I'm confident that ITM puts are ALWAYS going to turn around).
I've since learned I can be >$150 ITM on a put leg and, for myself, sleep soundly at night. I've used a 4 week roll in one instance when it was particularly deep ITM and mostly 2 week rolls to buy time, a bit of strike improvement, and waiting for the share price and strike to come back together. So far this has gone from $820 down to $760. Still fairly deep ITM, but for my purposes, 2 months of little cash generation from this position is just fine. It generated a lot of income the month or two before that, and the call side has generated a lot of cash while this one has been performing badly.
I think you got it, at least that is my reasoning following what I think @Lycanthrope has been posting too. It has taken me a while to be comfortable with this idea but I am thinking two things at the moment - Recent price action not swinging as much as in weeks past so perhaps less chance of a big surprise; this seems to be confirmed by both recent implied and historical volatility charts, and second even if I am wrong by the end of the week, can always roll to subsequent contracts that expire at a future date.
One piece of not-advice advice (for anybody) - if you believe you'll be rolling frequently, then I'd suggest putting yourself into a situation where you have 1 contract that you need to be rolling to keep the position alive. This is for accounts and financial situations where a single contract is a reasonably minor part of your overall portfolio.
The purpose is to gain some experience with rolling to keep a position alive. Then you can avoid finding yourself in a position with a significant option position and needing to figure out a roll on the fly (ask me how I know).
It's the trivial stuff - the mechanics of entering a roll ticket with your broker. Its the less trivial stuff of identifying when to roll and when not to. When rolling for longer timeframes over shorter timeframes is a good idea. Etc..
You prefer lower returns for higher risk and more work?
Some people prefer to eat at Mickey Dees every day, others prefer to hit the Michelin star once a month.
I know which path my body prefers...
An observation here - something that I believe bxr already realizes, but I think will be valuable to others; possibly helping y'all generate your own 3rd way of evaluating progress. bxr and I measure success and our portfolio differently. They are focusing on account / porfolio value as the measure of success and objective. That was my own measure of success as I was deciding whether I was ready to retire or not.
Today I track my primary account in terms of number of shares, and amount of cash. I would like shares to be flat (maybe slightly up) and cash to be flat to up. If cash is flat to up and shares are flat (most months), then we're effectively living for free. I really focus on this at the quarterly and annual level - if shares and cash are flat to up, then we've lived for free for that longer period of time.
I also fully realize that I am making use of a small sliver of the available trade types, and not optimizing my trading for the environment at any point in time. The good news for me is that I don't need to do that optimization. For me the choice is between doing something now (option sales for income) that is beneficial and waiting until sometime later when I've had more time to study and learn more ways of doing things. I prefer doing something profitable now, and then take my time about learning more stuff.
And make no mistake - I will be learning more stuff, and continuing to evolve my approach. Everything else being equal, if I am hitting 2x paycheck replacement today and I can hit 3x by learning more, then I'll get around to that. Even if the extra money earned is all given away - I think I'm going to enjoy giving away that much money