EVNow
Well-Known Member
I don't think the market is going to roll over. Higher rates etc are now priced in. If CPI comes in very hot, may be we'll see some big move down.
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
With share price nearly 180, I decided to split the difference and roll some of the 175/165 put spreads out a week to 160/150s, double up the contracts, and take a trivial credit (.02). I particularly wanted a big change in the strike.
I split the difference as I'm still thinking that 175 is safe for Friday - I'm just not as sure as I was when I woke up this morning
. If we continue down and get close to 175, then all the rest are moving.
Interesting sidebar - my accounts are split between Fidelity and Tastyworks now. I had the same roll order open at both brokerages for the same credit - the Tastyworks order filled while the Fidelity side order did not (at which point I cancelled with share price going up).
Also interesting - the roll from 1 BPS to a new BPS cost me $20 at Tastyworks for the commission. As long as contract count is 10+, the spread entry is $20 ($10 for each leg), and the exit is $0. Thus $0 to exit the current BPS, and $20 ($10 for each leg) to enter the new BPS.
EDIT Fidelity commission math.
Since I rolled from 40 to 80 contracts, at Fidelity that would have cost me $26 per leg out (short leg free if <.65) and $52 per leg in. As the closing short leg was >.65, the Fidelity commission would have been $26 + $26 + $52 + $52 for the same roll ($156).
I split the difference as I'm still thinking that 175 is safe for Friday - I'm just not as sure as I was when I woke up this morning
. If we continue down and get close to 175, then all the rest are moving.Interesting sidebar - my accounts are split between Fidelity and Tastyworks now. I had the same roll order open at both brokerages for the same credit - the Tastyworks order filled while the Fidelity side order did not (at which point I cancelled with share price going up).
Also interesting - the roll from 1 BPS to a new BPS cost me $20 at Tastyworks for the commission. As long as contract count is 10+, the spread entry is $20 ($10 for each leg), and the exit is $0. Thus $0 to exit the current BPS, and $20 ($10 for each leg) to enter the new BPS.
EDIT Fidelity commission math.
Since I rolled from 40 to 80 contracts, at Fidelity that would have cost me $26 per leg out (short leg free if <.65) and $52 per leg in. As the closing short leg was >.65, the Fidelity commission would have been $26 + $26 + $52 + $52 for the same roll ($156).
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I will probably just continue to roll out and down if we approach the short side. I use these as a sort of straddle/strangle for my CCs. I haven’t rolled the CCs out yet, because I think we will close below 195 Friday, but will roll if challenged. I prefer to have options close out each week and only roll when things get challenged. I’m starting to roll spreads earlier, when near the short side, as a precautionary measure.
Ultimately, I want to get out of all these long-dated spreads and only open 2DTE spreads, just like you. Just not happening this week.
Edit: I don’t believe that today’s drop is macro or Fed related. This feels like a bear raid caused buy all those puts. Just look at other stocks, S&P, Rivian, etc.
Market is pricing in 71% chance of a 50 bps hike in 2 weeks, up a whopping 7000% from just 1% last month. If Powell indeed delivers a 25 bps, there will be a mini short squeeze so I'm on the lookout for one.
john tanglewoo
2012 Roadster Owner
opened 10x April 21 -150p @ 4.73
If we see any drop I will ladder in 10 or 20 more.
If we see any drop I will ladder in 10 or 20 more.
SebastienBonny
Member
It's not much, but I'll take what I can, and for me, in the context of the day, that was a bullish close!
Furthermore, given that the FED are hinting hiking higher rates for longer, and now everyone's looking for 0.5% next FOMC, markets have hardly crashed, have they?
Furthermore, given that the FED are hinting hiking higher rates for longer, and now everyone's looking for 0.5% next FOMC, markets have hardly crashed, have they?
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Can you share with us how you are positioning to take advantage of any possible squeeze? I’d love to learn.
my favorite is buy otm butterfly calls + sell fotm puts or fotm strangle to fund it. 180 is my main pull back target before CPI and FOMC so a good spot to buy some lotto tickets.
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
Playing with fire.. we are going down, so I would suggest;keep the -P powder dry and sell calls! wouldn’t that be more logical?
I see the suggested 160 coming in earlier than I would expect a huge spike. Maybe only another DCB, off 175, today?
Not to paint you as an oracle here or anything but how long could that possibly last - a big flush that is?
What do you have for reasoning that we (not the market in general) would tank down to $160?
Is Tesla not going to have a record Q? Is Tesla not going to make a record profit.. again?
It's a short time till the P&D report now.
Are you betting on Powell raising rates - .50% ? and see that as a catalyst for the entire market tanking - thus bringing TSLA down?
Not being a fussy pants here - just trying to see a counter view point.
I am positioning for consolidation around this level $180-$200 until the P&D report let's us know how big this Quarter is - and then the earnings report to confirm another record profit.
IMO a lot of the bearish sentiment comes from reading the chart. Strictly from that perspective + dealer positioning indicates TSLA lost its MOJO for now and is retracing down. Stoch over 60 on the Hourly and Daily was lost, important supports were broken downward, all supporting a return the the downside. How steep and how long remains an open question.
Pierre Roberge provides an excellent objective overview from the TA side. Checkout his channel on YT called The Daily Trader (embed doesn’t work for his videos).
Once TSLA stops falling and enters a congestion zone, followed by a rise piercing through resistances with a Stoch over 60 we can consider that topside targets back in play and close shorts/go long.
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Jobs number might save TSLA or the market in general this week. Hope to see it closes the week above 180.
Futures up now, and TSLA staying around 180. The rest of the week is going to be interesting. CPI next week. I'm going to be very careful with CCs for next week. I'm not selling any unless we have strength to sell into. I'm actually happy with my decision now to close some of the Jan BPSs and sell a few shares yesterday. I do have a GTC buy order in to rebuy the shares if we get close to the sell price. If we keep going down I will try to time the bottom and look for 160s.
Nice turnaround, from 175 pre-market early this morning to 184 now. I had plans to sell 10 x p160 or p165 3/17 if we had opened at 175-176 (at a much better premium than I was aiming for yesterday), but this is also good, since I'm still short 10 x p190 3/17.
I like situations where the stock going up or down are both okay
I like situations where the stock going up or down are both okay
Gamma went from deep negative yesterday to neutral today, OI shift looks a bit more balanced as well. 180-190 still feels like a reasonable range this week. 180 and below looks hot from OI perspective, careful.
This is not the price action of a recovery. I'm leaning toward one more flush, to test the 176 level before bouncing. This afternoon could see some risk off posture before tomorrow job number.
For context, weekly jobless numbers cane out hot today, monthly labor market numbers come out tomorrow.
One has to assume this is the end of it. It's not. 160 comes later, IMO. There is no way we reach 160 before P&D. Won't even break 176.
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