Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[SpeedyEddy]

Vix 30 already! Watch it go 40 AND Nasdaq 10.000 AND SPY 325 AND Fear&Greed 15 THEN GO BUY BUY BUY. Can go very fast now. multiple trade-holds possibly coming because bigger then 10% falls. Bloody Monday coming? And remember what I said about daily SPY options worsening the situation.
No crystal ball available but -/- 20% on SPY possible short term, maybe even today..
Be online watching things unfold is the only advise I can give. Happy to have much $ side-lined.

 

[BornToFly]

Down over 4% in Pre-market. This is crazy. Last weeks stocks were down because bonds up. Now bonds down and stocks down?

 

[BornToFly]

Sold some shares in pre-market at 168.5. Stop loss order to buy them back if the market turns around.

 

[Jim Holder]

Not opening anything right now. Too volatile. Waiting for some clarity.

WickedStocks said yesterday low 160’s can contain selling pressure today. We’ll see if that holds. So far seems so, we bounced off there.

 

[CHGolferJim]

Will the jump in the VIX boost TSLA option prices?

 

[SpeedyEddy]

WTF missed market opening because daylight-saving hours started in US already.... too late to take a lot of profit on -C160 pfff

 

[BornToFly]

Shares were re-purchased via the stop loss order….

 

[SpeedyEddy]

Bitcoin and gold running, indeed as expected.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

Shares were re-purchased via the stop loss order….

maybe bail them on current intraday high

 

[SpeedyEddy]

Daily SPY-options-market no normal volume, because nobody wants to get burned, so no huge amplification of any crash today..
Maybe we first have to pass 3/17 before a mayor drop will occur, if daily's options until thursday have low volumes.
Current Maxpain (on 5 million+ options outstanding for friday) is still 400, but volume today on friday's options is certainly not pointing on anything hopeful (380 and lower)

 

[SpeedyEddy]

Just rolled down to -C140 and -C145 for next week, because I think the second thought on things happening now will be; Inflation longer and declining forward EPS maybe isn't such a nice overhang on my stocks. Bonds give me pretty good yield n no risk and for the more adventurous Gold and BTC is a safer haven.

 

[BornToFly]

QQQ up nicely on low expectation of 0.5 bps next week, and drop in bond yields. Tesla sales are very strong with record Q1 in the bag. So why is TSLA down…?

 

[Max Plaid]

QQQ up nicely on low expectation of 0.5 bps next week, and drop in bond yields. Tesla sales are very strong with record Q1 in the bag. So why is TSLA down…?

My question too - was an unknown analyst did a downgrade, but since the upgrades from good analysts don't pop the stock I fail to see why that would drop it

Reverse Gamma again, lots of puts being bought like in December...?

 

[SpeedyEddy]

QQQ up nicely on low expectation of 0.5 bps next week, and drop in bond yields. Tesla sales are very strong with record Q1 in the bag. So why is TSLA down…?

Big boys @ work. they do the same every time. Let it run for a while, shorting more and more and then in a coördinated way, preferably on top of other bad news throw in some FUD and pushing SP into stop-losses and, through SP-drop, over-margined -P-holders selling. Rinse and repeat of what happened around new-year. Don't fight against that, we've learned. Go with the flow

 

[intelligator]

Just rolled down to -C140 and -C145 for next week, because I think the second thought on things happening now will be; Inflation longer and declining forward EPS maybe isn't such a nice overhang on my stocks. Bonds give me pretty good yield n no risk and for the more adventurous Gold and BTC is a safer haven.

Is the thought that we go down further this and next week and that you take profit to buy back the DITM calls at any opportunity? I have 4/6 -c190 and 7/1 -c220 that I am considering making a move with. Just trying to understand the dynamics of this trade.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

But keep an eye on Fear&greed (19 already), Vix (went to 30, now down a bit, and as we speak rising again)
As on other days that matter TSLA too is the key-share to manipulate SPY in desired direction for daily options. Volume on that is rising quick and the bet is between 380 and 385, so 387 is too high. Pushing on heavy weight Tesla is an effective way to move SPY in the desired direction (just my 2 cents)

 

[SpeedyEddy]

Is the thought that we go down further this and next week and that you take profit to buy back the DITM calls at any opportunity? I have 4/6 -c190 and 7/1 -c220 that I am considering making a move with. Just trying to understand the dynamics of this trade.

Basically what you stated: As earlier, mostly Delta (stock presumably (FWIW) down) and a little bit of theta. So basically The amount SP is down, I gain in premium. Nothing else.
Gambling really, don't do so if not convinced. When something good happens to the stock I loose big time. (just publishing my trades, no advice)

[Edit: you take less risk, you get less premium, but you sleep better then I do. Further more: I have a lot of opportunities to be trading and watching things unfold. If there is a significant turn, I trade! If I practically can't trade I will not have any options out. That is why I was surprised by daylight-savings-hours today and not happy with that, being too late to buy back my C160's /Edit]

 

[Max Plaid]

Basically what you stated: As earlier, mostly Delta (stock presumably (FWIW) down) and a little bit of theta. So basically The amount SP is down, I gain in premium. Nothing else.
Gambling really, don't do so if not convinced. When something good happens to the stock I loose big time. (just publishing my trades, no advice)

[Edit: you take less risk, you get less premium, but you sleep better then I do. Further more: I have a lot of opportunities to be trading and watching things unfold. If there is a significant turn, I trade! If I practically can't trade I will not have any options out. That is why I was surprised by daylight-savings-hours today and not happy with that, being too late to buy back my C160's /Edit]

Writing (D)ITM calls is essentially the same as buying puts, except the asset doesn't go to zero, you can always roll. Plus if you don't sell them too deep then you can win quite some Theta

I think the best scenario, if you have the cash is to do it with buy/write, so you needed to buy at 165 earlier, then immediately sell -c150's

What you shouldn't do, IMO, is sell (D)ITM calls against shares with a higher cost basis, even if you're 100% certain the stock is going to hell, there's a chance it won't and you'll end-up with deep underwater calls... worst case is the SP dumps, but you can still keep selling weeklies until it comes back, other is that the SP shoots up and the calls are exercised, but then you win anyway

 

[BornToFly]

Crap. I thought TSLA was going to climb eventually, but still ended up selling 1300 shares on a 168.4 stop loss that got triggered. BUT, I THINK I’m fully hedged on a climb back up. I bought to close 150 CC contracts (Jan 2024 380 and 400 strikes) I had sold a couple weeks ago for >50% profit. If the SP climbs back to 200, I can sell the CCs again and rebuy the shares with what I think will be about break even/zero loss (compared to having just held the shares and the CCs).

Edit - the CC only need to move 0.1 for every $1 move in the stock. They did more than that on the way down….

 

[SpeedyEddy]

Writing (D)ITM calls is essentially the same as buying puts, except the asset doesn't go to zero, you can always roll. Plus if you don't sell them too deep then you can win quite some Theta

I think the best scenario, if you have the cash is to do it with buy/write, so you needed to buy at 165 earlier, then immediately sell -c150's

What you shouldn't do, IMO, is sell (D)ITM calls against shares with a higher cost basis, even if you're 100% certain the stock is going to hell, there's a chance it won't and you'll end-up with deep underwater calls... worst case is the SP dumps, but you can still keep selling weeklies until it comes back, other is that the SP shoots up and the calls are exercised, but then you win anyway

That is the safe way indeed.
(On conviction,) my way is more profitable, as with everything taking more risk is rewarded better but when you loose the opposite applies. At the moment I am on a loss on these -C's , but I have two weeks to prove to be right on investor's second thoughts on all of this. The market is irrational now, and it can be much longer than I can stay solvent. I know.. and if evidently wrong.. I will turn. Go with the flow as I said before