Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[SpeedyEddy]

Writing (D)ITM calls is essentially the same as buying puts, except the asset doesn't go to zero, you can always roll. Plus if you don't sell them too deep then you can win quite some Theta

I think the best scenario, if you have the cash is to do it with buy/write, so you needed to buy at 165 earlier, then immediately sell -c150's

What you shouldn't do, IMO, is sell (D)ITM calls against shares with a higher cost basis, even if you're 100% certain the stock is going to hell, there's a chance it won't and you'll end-up with deep underwater calls... worst case is the SP dumps, but you can still keep selling weeklies until it comes back, other is that the SP shoots up and the calls are exercised, but then you win anyway

That is the safe way indeed.
(On conviction,) my way is more profitable, as with everything taking more risk is rewarded better but when you loose the opposite applies. At the moment I am on a loss on these -C's , but I have two weeks to prove to be right on investor's second thoughts on all of this. The market is irrational now, and it can be much longer than I can stay solvent. I know.. and if evidently wrong.. I will turn. Go with the flow as I said before

 

[dl003]

I think we're at a difficult spot. In term of price, we're only $4 away from satisfying the minimum requirement for a legit correction. In term of structure, I like what I'm seeing. So, I'm going to go light on CC here for a few days.

 

[intelligator]

Options volume (where contracts > 500) as of noon. Put to call is 1.44:1

Nice upward trend from the morning dip. Time to take a break?

 

[BornToFly]

I think we're at a difficult spot. In term of price, we're only $4 away from satisfying the minimum requirement for a legit correction. In term of structure, I like what I'm seeing. So, I'm going to go light on CC here for a few days.

I'm hoping to sell a few CC tomorrow if we have a pop on CPI.

 

[EVNow]

Tesla sales are very strong with record Q1 in the bag.

How do you come to that conclusion ?

ps : We have been talking about it in the finance thread. Current Troy estimate is lower than analysts.

Near-future quarterly financial projections

So inventory in Europe is gonna go up a lot in Q1: It is always interesting to see Troy's estimates but they are only one data point to be taken into account when gazing into our crystal balls. It is clear that his estimates are at odds with the strategy stated by Tesla on several occasions...

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[MikeC]

My 2x -p187.50/-c200 strangle from last week is now:

2x -170p and 1x -175p
1x -c175 and -c180

Not so happy being in puts again with the down week, and I’m expecting downside risk Monday with SVB fallout. Will try to resist temptation to split puts further and get myself into margin trouble if we keep going down.

Also don’t really like holding calls at this low strike but I’m willing to let the shares go at 180 that at least have a lower cost basis.

Basically hoping for a flat week.

Went from being scared for my puts on Saturday to being scared for my calls on Sunday to being scared for my puts this morning.

Now getting scared for my calls again, but thankfully closed out the -c175 on the dip this morning.

 

[EVNow]

Went from being scared for my puts on Saturday to being scared for my calls on Sunday to being scared for my puts this morning.

Now getting scared for my calls again, but thankfully closed out the -c175 on the dip this morning.

Looks like currently TSLA is running about 1% lower than Nasdaq.

 

[JustMe]

TSLA outperformed the market on Friday by a couple of % for no obvious reason and underperforms the market today by a couple of % for no obvious reason.



I wouldn’t sweat these minor mismatches. Probably options market related or maybe sector rotation but who knows.

I’m just thankful we’re not down by 10% today.

 

[EVNow]

According to WicketStocks ... here are the support/resistance levels.

Interestingly today (atleast so far !) the 163/164 levels seem to be holding. Note today's morning low was exactly 163.91

There should be strong support at 140/150 levels. The gap last time (for those looking for gap fill) is ~ 146 to 154.

ps : I'm not a TA person. But it makes sense to understand what TA folks are thinking because if enough people believe it (as traders apparently do), it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

 

[EVNow]

TSLA outperformed the market on Friday by a couple of % for no obvious reason and underperforms the market today by a couple of % for no obvious reason.

I think these analyst calls have a big influence as they drive algos (and wealthy investors who use financial advisors to invest).

Wolf Research analyst Rod Lache downgraded the stock from Outperform to Peer Perform, citing macro pressures stemming from the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.​

 

[Max Plaid]

I think these analyst calls have a big influence as they drive algos (and wealthy investors who use financial advisors to invest).

Wolf Research analyst Rod Lache downgraded the stock from Outperform to Peer Perform, citing macro pressures stemming from the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.​

Begs the questions, who are Wolfe Research, who is Rod Lache and why do they single-out Tesla as being impacted by SVB?

Sounds like BS to me...

Ben Kallo from Baird, who is a well respected analyst, reiterated buy and 255 PT, that one didn't get pushed tot he news-feeds multiple times though

 

[EVNow]

Begs the questions, who are Wolfe Research, who os Rod Lache and why do they single-out Tesla as being impacted by SVB?

Sounds like BS to me...

Ben Gallo from Baird, who is a well respected analyst reiterated buy and 255 PT, that one didn't get pushed tot he news-feeds multiple times though

Rod Lache is rated slightly better than Ben Kallo in the last one year.

ps : I should say an upgrade / downgrade has a bigger influence on reiterate. Anyway, now TSLA is 0.5% above Nasdaq ...

 

[Max Plaid]

Rod Lache is rated slightly better than Ben Kallo in the last one year.

ps : I should say an upgrade / downgrade has a bigger influence on reiterate. Anyway, now TSLA is 0.5% above Nasdaq ...

View attachment 917165 View attachment 917166

OK, fair enough, he's better than I though, I couldn't get to his profile or TSLA history on TipRanks...

Ben gets extra points though for being married to Melissa Lee, he did well there!

 

[SebastienBonny]

Was at a seminar all day so missed all the action.
Looks like we'll end up where we finished on Friday

 

[vikings123]

Was at a seminar all day so missed all the action.
Looks like we'll end up where we finished on Friday

Yes it was a whole lot of up, down, up, down..I know it’s an old trick but I’m always impressed by their ability to frequently swing a liquid mega cap like they did from 163 to 178 today. Pretty amazing actually.

Now we wait for CPI tomorrow but honestly I don’t think the CPI will matter much unless it comes in way below expectations which will pretty much guarantee a worst case 25bps increase for March.

 

[Jim Holder]

TSLA seems to be on a rodeo strapped to the macro, so may not be an easy up ride from here. On the other hand, Yoona appears to see some bullish hints, and our resident TSLA oracle @dl003 noted he’s seeing something too. Though Pierre Roberge cautions to wait for break above through $187.47 resistance for confirmation and until then are still in a congestion zone of the downtrend.

Given that, I’ve STO at todays highs a starter position of -C245 for 8/18/23 (158 days) at $8.50, with plans to eat the theta while we bounce around and then BTC next visit to $160 or below. Half on shares with a $243 CB and half naked. Hopefully I won’t regret it, though I don’t see TSLA at $245 before $160 or even $140 given everything I’ve seen and learned (and the Macro rodeo were on…).

I also have x5 -P175 3/17 which I’m stubborn about not rolling. Let’s see if I’m put those shares. I have the funds so not worried and plan to wheel them if they get put to me.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1635388254647386112

 

[BornToFly]

How do you come to that conclusion ?

ps : We have been talking about it in the finance thread. Current Troy estimate is lower than analysts.

Near-future quarterly financial projections

So inventory in Europe is gonna go up a lot in Q1: It is always interesting to see Troy's estimates but they are only one data point to be taken into account when gazing into our crystal balls. It is clear that his estimates are at odds with the strategy stated by Tesla on several occasions...

teslamotorsclub.com

Based on sales data posted on Twitter for Europe and China. Sales should be higher than a year ago.

 

[Jim Holder]

Cary Artec of Wicked Stocks says since we bounced so well off $166 area today the emphasis shifted now to looking upward and if we close over $179.57 tomorrow, $198.58 is days away perhaps by the end of this week. We can then fall back to the $166 area. Consider long only over $179.55 (similar to Pierre).

Closing above $198.58 brings $221.25 soon, and $240's in reach by end of April.

For the downside: A close below $166.29 brings down draft to $146.06 within 3-5 days where we can bottom out through April and even into next quarter and move higher from there.

 

[ReddyLeaf]

Cary Artec of Wicked Stocks says since we bounced so well off $166 area today the emphasis shifted now to looking upward and if we close over $179.57 tomorrow, $198.58 is days away perhaps by the end of this week. We can then fall back to the $166 area. Consider long only over $179.55 (similar to Pierre).

Closing above $198.58 brings $221.25 soon, and $240's in reach by end of April.

For the downside: A close below $166.29 brings down draft to $146.06 within 3-5 days where we can bottom out through April and even into next quarter and move higher from there.

His analysis always makes me think and his levels do seem to be significant more times than not. Perhaps I’m too simplistic, but I think the options market will hold the SP in a tighter channel than he describes. However, I still don’t understand where the “rising 2/3rds speed line” comes from (ie, why did today’s TA traders pivot exactly on that spot). I just need to do some research on speed lines.

Great day today for day traders and my portfolio benefited from the small rise. Unfortunately, I’m not compatible with daylight savings time changes and didn’t catch any of it. For this week still holding -c175s (oops, should have closed at $166) and a bunch of nicely-centered, wide ICs. I’m still worried about a drop below $160 (probably not this week due to that put wall) and filling the 1/25/23 gap at $146. Even though we bounced off 166 and may rise, we’re still in a downward channel imho. Still looks like $175+/-$5 is this week’s battle. GLTA.

 

[EVNow]

Based on sales data posted on Twitter for Europe and China. Sales should be higher than a year ago.

There will be 3 comparisons.
- Over last quarter
- YOY
- Compared to forecast

If there is YOY beat but not the other two, I don’t expect a breakout.