Almost impossible for Q1 to ever be bigger than Q4. Anyone that dings Tesla for that doesn't understand the auto industry sales cycles.
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
Isn’t that a big risk for just a couple of grand?
I think one would need a lot more than that to roll the dice. What if we have a face-ripping rally tomorrow?
This is accurate, Q1 is tough for automaker; however I am worried about Tesla not meeting the analyst consensus which IMO would be a problem for the stock. I hope they adjust their numbers and make it realistic, 428k vehicles seems too high.
Here is Tesla's deliveries per quarter through the years:
I was aggressive with my CC's from my usual strategy, I sold a few $192.5-187.5 calls.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Q1 '22 deliveries were higher than Q4 '21 deliveries (310,048 vs 308,650).
Anyway, we all remember what happened after record Q4 deliveries, that somehow fell short of expectations.
I do think actual vs expectations / forecast will play a big role - much more than QOQ / YOY.
ps : Just saw the table above. Tesla Q1 deliveries have been above previous Q4 deliveries 4 out of last 6 years.
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SebastienBonny
Member
Stunning. Highest number since the last week of September...
BTC 15x -p180 @$3.9 for +$4.2 profits -> expecting a push back down below 180 and will re-enter at a lower strike if I can
This rally in the broader markets seems fishy to me. Not buying it.
Looks like he was right about the bounce and direction change. FWIW, I did read up on Speed Lines. Going over $180 has jumped the SP out of the downward channel that I showed yesterday, so I’m now bullish in the short-term. Closed all BPS for this week for a healthy profit, rolled one BCS and all CCs out and up. Still holding -c190/+c200s, -c200/+c210s in anticipation of the afternoon fade (which doesn’t look like it’s coming). I’m still cash-positive on those, so should probably close.
I would have liked to see better volume but still a believer in this bounce. From a TSLA perspective good to see the excellent weekly China numbers. There is a lot of pressure now on the fed to at least in the worst case scenario do a 25 bps increase.
I can see the markets run back to last week's highs.
Good stuff! Thanks for the link regarding Speed Lines. I thought he just made that up
. I never heard the term before.Curious how much energy this upward trend has and whether I should BTC the -C245 8/18/23 (opened at $8.50) for an $8k loss and re-sell at next peak, or hold for a dip back to 170’s and BTC at b/e or gains if we go to 160. Still have 157 days on that but it’s often not good practice to let -C go too red on hopes. Seems I was a bit hasty.
What’s the consensus, we retest 140 before 240 before August?
EVNow
Well-Known Member
The problem with this is - if CPI had come higher and the market went down, so would have TSLA (probably).
100%. Hence it’s all probabilities to get a slight edge.
If CPI was indeed higher and dragged TSLA down, it wouldn’t have closed over $179.57, invalidating the upward trend. But since CPI didn’t and TSLA punched over the target then the bullish view has more of a chance.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
I think - the market is likely going to be volatile reacting to various macro news items on a daily basis. As usual 15% to 20% weekly swings either way
are going to be the norm ...
You mean ... if SP closes above 179 ? Still 2 1/2 hours left !
are going to be the norm ...
You mean ... if SP closes above 179 ? Still 2 1/2 hours left !
Dealer positioning and Dark Pool data supports that too.
Can you share some thoughts on what you’re seeing for a range?
john tanglewoo
2012 Roadster Owner
In regards to Pierre, do any of you subscribe to his trading view chart? Just wondering how much emphasis is placed on his analysis?
Sold some CCs through GTC limit orders since I wasn’t impressed with yesterday’s premiums. Nice to have those hit about 1pm, usually I’m too bullish on limit orders:
- 24Mar$200 at $2 — daily high so far, a buy-write at cost
- 6Apr$210 at $3 — “ less 5 cents, a buy-write $10 over cost
- CC only, no more than 75% of shares covered at any one time
- 25% buy-writes at strikes above cost and $5-$10 OTM expect to roll most
- 25% cautious at 10%-15% OTM and 6-8 DTE expect most to expire
- 50% super cautious 1-2 mos. $100 OTM once SP reaches $210 expect to close at 50% gain on dips
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