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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

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Its kind of a relative thing. All else equal, time value burns off at a progressively faster rate (theta) as the contract gets closer to expiration. Generally with a sold option you want it to be ~close to expiration (where "close" is a function of a trader's strategy), because the contract is burning off value faster than if its expiration was farther away. The exact opposite is true for an owned option. You want it expiration to be sufficiently far in the future such that it can't burn off material value.

For instance, if you bought a Jan $700 call, it would burn off maybe ~8% of its value due to time decay over the course of a month (not including greeks fluctuation, but that's another conversation). If you bought a June $700 call it would burn off maybe ~40% of its value over the course of a month due to time decay. So...if you were planning on holding a contract for a month, you'd definitely prefer the Jan rather than the June. But the June call is only going to burn off ~15% of its value over the course of the week, and because the closer expiration costs less, maybe you're ok with eating that 15% for what you've analyzed as potential upside of the position.

Just for a round number of 50% profit , if you bought a June call now for ~$47 and underlying goes up to $735, the contract is going to be worth $70+, even factoring that 15% 'stupid tax' of time decay. That Jan contract would have actually made you more actual money ($2.8k vs $2.4k or so), but because you paid $138 for the Jan contract your profit on your capital is a smaller ~20%.

Greeks fluctuations not withstanding, ~equivalent sold contracts will have made more actual money (which is more or less @stealthyc's point above) because the trader is earning the ~15% time value on the Jun 700 as opposed to losing it as described above, but at a fraction of the profit %. In the above scenario a Jun 700 CC, for instance, would have returned ~0.5% profit on capital.

And to wrap this up with a horse beat, volatility is the huge variable. If IV on the June +C was to go up just 10 percentage points, your profit would go from ~$2400 to $3400, and a June -C would have a ~similar reduction in total profit.

When do you throw the towel when a +C option do not work out? I actually have both Jun 700s and Jan 700s. The Jun 700s are in bad shape specially after the drop in IV; I should have sold them before earnings 🤦‍♂️ . I am guilty of using the holding mentality with options I buy because I had good luck last year. My plan was to sell them before earnings at around $750ish SP and IV of 75 ... the IV part never happened.
 
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I can confirm you cannot reasonably recover. I had near-term 600s I stubbornly refused to roll because the stock had been languishing under 400 for years, I didn't expect it to shoot by so fast.

Even worse, because they were part of a calendar spread, I lost money on them much faster than I gained on the LEAPs. Both ends of the spread were so DITM that there was no time value left even though they were like a year apart on the calendar. Trying not to make that mistake again, I'm sticking to share-backed short calls and more aggressive rolling.

So rolling when it approached ATM was too late, or did it pass it before you decided to roll?
 
I've noticed these wayyyyy DITM puts in every Max Pain graph (850 for 4/30). Do these investors keep rolling forward every month or just part of a complex investment strategy that balance out their position?

Screen Shot 2021-04-29 at 8.08.38 PM.png
 
1. There's a serious misconception that bought options burn off time value at some uncontrollable rate, or even an unreasonable rate. They do not, if you buy properly, where "properly" = dated such that the time decay is a fraction of total CV over the period in which you'll likely hold the contract. So like, if you think you're going to end up holding the contract for a few weeks or a month, you buy a contract that's ~6 months out. If you think you want to hold the contract for 6 months or a year, you buy a 24 month leap. If you're day trading and are only going to hold the contract for a few hours (or even minutes) you might buy something for this month or even this week.

Its really the same logic as the other side of the chain--nobody would suggest selling a LEAP for its time decay with the intention of buying it back a few days later, and nobody would suggest selling calls is a terrible idea because there's 'no' time decay off a sold LEAP over the course of a week.


2. Market makers are not simply buying from or selling a contract to you when you open a position (shares or contracts), they're balancing their total market exposure from the gazillions of positions they have with folks like us with (again, more or less) an equal and opposite position. Figuratively at least (its much more complicated than this), if you sell an $800 call for next week to them, they immediately turn around and buy an $800 call for next week, which exactly offsets any financial exposure to their portfolio from underlying movement because The Greeks of the two contracts are equal and opposite. Where their major source of profit comes in is the bid/ask spread that you and I eat every time we transact with the MM. It might only seem like dollars to us when we pay The Man the spread, but multiplied by the gazillion units they move every day it adds up to a big pile of money to them.

The big rub is that MM's won't (and can't) exactly offset their exposure, for all manner of reasons. There's the pretty obvious reality of "immediately" being less than perfect, there's their huge portfolio to mangage full of plenty of shares and contracts, there's the fact that The Greeks from that $800 call and $800 aren't actually exactly equal and opposite, there's unexpected external forces (from the latest Tesla tree-wrapping to the current sociopolitical crisis and everything in between), etc.

So, at least within the good graces of The Man (SEC, whoever), MM's will <ahem> "hedge" the aforementioned exposure with shares and options in <ahem> "anticipation" of you selling them that $800 call for next week. In fact they have a multi-dimensional analysis that constantly adjusts their portfolio based on your $800 call plus all those other things based on where they see price movement going over the next hour or day or month. Because there's a ton of volume/money involved with those actions, the actions themselves tend to (Whoops!) drive market pricing as opposed to theoretically just reacting to it. So, naturally, as a for-profit entity the MM will, again at least within the law, conveniently leverage the fact that their portfolio actions are circular references that generally/usually drives the market toward their actions.

That's where something like the Max pain theory comes into play...though things like short shares also drive this (which is why Max Pain shouldn't be taken completely literally and absolutely, and should rather just be another tool on your belt).
The bid/ask spread reminds of this scene from Bonfire of The Vanities:
 
Couple of updates. As I'm thinking about this buy long dated call / sell short dated call trade, I noticed just now that the June '23s are now up. Maybe even today as they are showing very little volume so far. For the long dated calls my opening assumption is I'll go out as far as they go (alternative methods for choosing welcome).

Coming up soon, when I have some incremental cash arrive - see if I can actually create the spread trade ticket in my IRA. And probably more importantly - when I'm ready to close the short call, am I able to open a replacement (via a roll ticket; a separate BTC and then STO would be too restrictive for my position management and would end this experiment, at least in my IRA, immediately). I'll do this with one contract and report back on how that goes. I've been far enough into creating the opening spread ticket that it was ready for me to submit and had gotten past the "not enough money" error.


This lovely drop in the share price today enabled me to roll the 3 call positions that I've been nursing along and have been ITM. They were all OTM when I rolled them, and they've all been rolled to the May 7 / 720 strike - roughly .20 delta, with net credits in the $3-4 range.

I have only 1 remaining Apr 30 position - a 675 put that is slightly OTM with nearly $6 in time value to run off tomorrow. I think that my put delta target is going to be closer to .30 when I'm establishing my own preferred strike. That is down a bit from the .35 I was using previously, but still higher than the call delta. Using these parameters if I were to roll at the Thursday's end of day values, I would land at the 655 strike for May 7 and a $4 net credit.

For the moment, yet another change I'm making to my trading pattern is to roll winning / OTM positions out 1-2 week at a time, and continue rolling the losing / ITM positions out 2-4 weeks at a time. The idea with this shift - more frequent adjustments on the winning legs, hopefully yielding a significantly higher winning %, while also making adjustments to the winning legs more often. I figure that spending more time in the rapid time decay of the final week to expiration is a good thing.
 
So rolling when it approached ATM was too late, or did it pass it before you decided to roll?

I wanted to wait until closer to expiration and figured it would probably come back down. I don't like to roll too early because a lot of times the price comes back down, but I sure got rolled over by the steamroller on that one.
 
In this chapter of not having deleveraged enough, right when I needed to pull some cash to pay for taxes.
  1. Rolled my 1200c 03/2023 to 1100c 06/2023 for a $31cr/contract. This settled a margin call with the additional cash raised. Game plan on these will be that if/when we get some appreciation in price I will roll them down and closer for a net debit. In other words, this is purely a margin maintenance play, NOT an income generation play.
  2. Had some of my 850p 04/30 get early assigned to me this morning. Funny because I had meant to roll them yesterday, but got too busy with work in the afternoon to get around to doing that. So, I'll be rolling the rest of the puts a couple weeks out to start lowering strike price at a small credit @adiggs and I are in the same boat on this one.
  3. I'll be selling covered calls against the newly assigned shares - likely around the $725 (just above all our MAs currently). Intention with these shares is to hold at least until $850 (rather than more aggressively play the wheel), or higher depending on how long it takes to reach that, since I am now paying margin interest on the negative cash to buy these.
Let's see what the price action does today!
 
In this chapter of not having deleveraged enough, right when I needed to pull some cash to pay for taxes.
  1. Rolled my 1200c 03/2023 to 1100c 06/2023 for a $31cr/contract. This settled a margin call with the additional cash raised. Game plan on these will be that if/when we get some appreciation in price I will roll them down and closer for a net debit. In other words, this is purely a margin maintenance play, NOT an income generation play.
  2. Had some of my 850p 04/30 get early assigned to me this morning. Funny because I had meant to roll them yesterday, but got too busy with work in the afternoon to get around to doing that. So, I'll be rolling the rest of the puts a couple weeks out to start lowering strike price at a small credit @adiggs and I are in the same boat on this one.
  3. I'll be selling covered calls against the newly assigned shares - likely around the $725 (just above all our MAs currently). Intention with these shares is to hold at least until $850 (rather than more aggressively play the wheel), or higher depending on how long it takes to reach that, since I am now paying margin interest on the negative cash to buy these.
Let's see what the price action does today!

This may sound weird, but it helps me to know I'm not the only one in a position of "not having deleveraged enough". Misery loves company! I am also needing cash to pay taxes. My bought 700c 1/22 are stressing me out to no end because I didn't sell when I had the chance (pre February melt down) - would have paid for my taxes and then some. I have learned to utilize margin with diligence moving forward. After this recent experience I am also learning that open calls should represent a much smaller percentage of my total portfolio moving forward.
Thank you for laying your strategies on how you are approaching your particular circumstance.
 
Why does IV goes down when the stock goes up? but if goes down for instance like today IV would be up 5 points. Is it because it creates uncertainty going down but not up lol? I know it goes up if the stock move up a lot but lately that's the trend that I am seeing.

TSLA is always full of surprises lol. My lowest strike sold contract is $717.5
 
Had some of my 850p 04/30 get early assigned to me this morning. Funny because I had meant to roll them yesterday, but got too busy with work in the afternoon to get around to doing that. So, I'll be rolling the rest of the puts a couple weeks out to start lowering strike price at a small credit @adiggs and I are in the same boat on this one.

I think that this is an important reason why I roll for a better strike AND when time value approaches $0 to $1. I really don't want to see actual time value of $0 (or say $0.10 or under).


One idea I've used on a deep ITM put -- I view the rolls as primarily about buying time (rather than attempting to also extract meaningful cash). That led me to the 2 week roll (much better roll dynamics deep ITM, MHO) and THAT led me to a 4 week roll when I was pretty far ITM (about $150 in fact :D). I think the 2 week roll was something like a $5 or $10 strike improvement while the 4 week roll was more like $30 strike improvement. I don't remember the details - the point is that the 4 week roll was a significantly better improvement over 2 of the 2 week rolls then available. And most importantly I figured I was so deep ITM that I wasn't going to dig out in 4 weeks much less than 2, so the extra strike improvement (and time) was particularly valuable to me.

Even though my investor view of the shares is that they are inevitable coming back, even to an $850 strike put, I would rather not risk the shares wandering down to $400 on the way back to $850, thus the steady strike improvement I try for. Also worth noting that I can go forever with 1 leg earning income and the other buried deep ITM and digging its way back. That includes little or no margin utilization so I don't have that external dynamic pressing on me.

So far I haven't rolled puts down making use of a net debit though I have thought about it. I am, however, ready to pay net debits to buy better strikes on the call side should I find those calls ITM and heading for deep ITM. Where I am very confident that the shares will always return to my ITM strike puts, I don't have that confidence on the call side. I've been through too many (2) runs where the shares take off and don't stop for awhile and most importantly NEVER return to their previous levels. This is my #1 risk that I worry about within my income generation approach.


We are in the same boat on this one. I've been able to improve an $820 strike put from back in Feb or early March to a $760 put today. Cash generation has been positive and small - on the order of $500 to $1000 per week along the way. It's the steady strike improvement I have particularly enjoyed as its brought the day when the puts are back OTM that much closer, that much faster.