juanmedina
Active Member
Its kind of a relative thing. All else equal, time value burns off at a progressively faster rate (theta) as the contract gets closer to expiration. Generally with a sold option you want it to be ~close to expiration (where "close" is a function of a trader's strategy), because the contract is burning off value faster than if its expiration was farther away. The exact opposite is true for an owned option. You want it expiration to be sufficiently far in the future such that it can't burn off material value.
For instance, if you bought a Jan $700 call, it would burn off maybe ~8% of its value due to time decay over the course of a month (not including greeks fluctuation, but that's another conversation). If you bought a June $700 call it would burn off maybe ~40% of its value over the course of a month due to time decay. So...if you were planning on holding a contract for a month, you'd definitely prefer the Jan rather than the June. But the June call is only going to burn off ~15% of its value over the course of the week, and because the closer expiration costs less, maybe you're ok with eating that 15% for what you've analyzed as potential upside of the position.
Just for a round number of 50% profit , if you bought a June call now for ~$47 and underlying goes up to $735, the contract is going to be worth $70+, even factoring that 15% 'stupid tax' of time decay. That Jan contract would have actually made you more actual money ($2.8k vs $2.4k or so), but because you paid $138 for the Jan contract your profit on your capital is a smaller ~20%.
Greeks fluctuations not withstanding, ~equivalent sold contracts will have made more actual money (which is more or less @stealthyc's point above) because the trader is earning the ~15% time value on the Jun 700 as opposed to losing it as described above, but at a fraction of the profit %. In the above scenario a Jun 700 CC, for instance, would have returned ~0.5% profit on capital.
And to wrap this up with a horse beat, volatility is the huge variable. If IV on the June +C was to go up just 10 percentage points, your profit would go from ~$2400 to $3400, and a June -C would have a ~similar reduction in total profit.
When do you throw the towel when a +C option do not work out? I actually have both Jun 700s and Jan 700s. The Jun 700s are in bad shape specially after the drop in IV; I should have sold them before earnings . I am guilty of using the holding mentality with options I buy because I had good luck last year. My plan was to sell them before earnings at around $750ish SP and IV of 75 ... the IV part never happened.
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