Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Max Plaid]

Well, this price action is mighty bullish given everything, poor old NVDA being held at their 460 Max Pain though...

Have been thinking more about the short term strategy. Earlier I said about selling puts and shitcalls, but I believe there's a better approach, which is, of course, straddles! Yes, I know...

So let's assume I sell my 3500 $TSLA, that will give enough cash - with what I have on hand to write ~40x ATM puts and I have 110x LEAPS free to write calls against

So I'm thinking 25x -ATM weekly straddles if the SP stays around here is a safe trade. I see a lot more upside risk than down right now, and just writing 25x would be easy to roll out with 85x still in my pocket. For the downside, would be spare put contracts available to facilitate a roll down, plus with all the free call contracts I wouldn't be too stressed to write a handful at a lower strike

I'll the idea of shitcalls, that entails more risk IMO in case of a big move up

 

[Max Plaid]

I was reading that it is going to be a hard company too short because only 1% of the shares are traded.

Well I don't even have the possibility to short with my broker and would be against my ethics given everything with TSLA, but buying some puts would be OK, just for shits'n'giggles

 

[tivoboy]

Anyone know when options will be listed for $VFS? I'lm very tempted to buy some puts on this one, $162B market cap, and how many cars is it they produce, and what's the P/E?

Hmmm, now I look, I didn't even think this was possible? Why didn't Musk implement this from the beginning: "VinFast restricts trading of its shares by banning short sales and options trading, which are common practices in the U.S. market. The absence of derivative securities services has kept large investment funds out of the game so far"

Or is that referring to a previous situation and now they're I the Nasdaq they will have derivatives?

View attachment 968154

Seems like someone, they learned their lesson with RIVN

 

[Jim Holder]

Today at around 10:30am I thought $235 wouldn’t hold and it’ll do the same as yesterday and bleed back to test $227 again, so I sold 30x -C235 9/1 short calls against b/w @$235 for $6.16. Plan was to close on Monday in the low $230’s for about $8k-$11 win. I felt like a genius when TSLA indeed headed toward $230 right after and I watched the position appreciate nicely nearly +$6k.

Then boom! Once TSLA hopped over $236 I decided to wait and see if it holds, but after TSLA held even $237-238 quite well, plus watching all the OTM call sweeps flying in and the strong buying pressure I decided to cut @$7.85 for a $5k loss and get out of the way.

At least my longs that were backing the short calls are appreciating well more than the loss

Re the 3,000 $235 longs for next week, wondering if to sell @ $242 and watch for rejection and get back in if mounted, instead of suffering a $10 dollar drop or more if it truly rejects.

How do you guys handle scalping/trading shares when at an inflection point, like $242 is?

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optionstrat.com

 

[dl003]

Today at around 10:30am I thought $235 wouldn’t hold and it’ll do the same as yesterday and bleed back to test $227 again, so I sold 30x -C235 9/1 short calls against b/w @$235 for $6.16. Plan was to close on Monday in the low $230’s for about $8k-$11 win. I felt like a genius when TSLA indeed headed toward $230 right after and I watched the position appreciate nicely nearly +$6k.

Then boom! Once TSLA hopped over $236 I decided to wait and see if it holds, but after TSLA held even $237-238 quite well, plus watching all the OTM call sweeps flying in and the strong buying pressure I decided to cut @$7.85 for a $5k loss and get out of the way.

At least my longs that were backing the short calls are appreciating well more than the loss

Re the 3,000 $235 longs for next week, wondering if to sell @ $242 and watch for rejection and get back in if mounted, instead of suffering a $10 dollar drop or more if it truly rejects.

How do you guys handle scalping/trading shares when at an inflection point, like $242 is?

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optionstrat.com

View attachment 968247

dont force yourself to trade twilight zones. Wait for a clean break in either direction. Have levels drawn ahead of time to unemotionally calculate your risk : reward. Dont even think about the fundamentals or the news. By the time the news comes out its already too late. Find another ticker in the meantime. For me, my most profitable trades have been really easy. If I find myself toss n turning over trade chances are its gonna turn into a shitshow. If you thought shorting this morning was a good idea 100% not a doubt in your mind, go over your thought process see what really went wrong.

I took an early weekend so didnt look at the chart at all. Only reported as soon as I could shake off my hangover what I saw in the flow. My 2c.

 

[BornToFly]

This is why trading options is so tuff. Elon did a live stream yesterday of FSD 12. He explained there is no line of code for anything. AI was shown tons of video and it learned to drive like a human. As soon as Wallstreet understands this and understands that nobody is close to Tesla in FSD, the stock should jump 100%. The problem is we have no idea when that moment will happen....

I have 272.5 naked calls for Friday, and 280 calls. I also have 205 Puts for end of September that I want to roll up and in to get rid of them so I can start making money on new Puts.

 

[tivoboy]

This is why trading options is so tuff. Elon did a live stream yesterday of FSD 12. He explained there is no line of code for anything. AI was shown tons of video and it learned to drive like a human. As soon as Wallstreet understands this and understands that nobody is close to Tesla in FSD, the stock should jump 100%. The problem is we have no idea when that moment will happen....

I have 272.5 naked calls for Friday, and 280 calls. I also have 205 Puts for end of September that I want to roll up and in to get rid of them so I can start making money on new Puts.

I still don’t like it when the car tries to run red lights, and I guess EM STILL doesn’t like it either. I don’t think the market or the regulators will like it either. I was hoping for just some phantom braking still, some poor manners with respect to other cars, but trying to run a red light isn’t going to cut it.

That’s why we trade, and not just HODL - at least why I do.

 

[Cherry Wine]

This is why trading options is so tuff. Elon did a live stream yesterday of FSD 12. He explained there is no line of code for anything. AI was shown tons of video and it learned to drive like a human. As soon as Wallstreet understands this and understands that nobody is close to Tesla in FSD, the stock should jump 100%. The problem is we have no idea when that moment will happen....

I have 272.5 naked calls for Friday, and 280 calls. I also have 205 Puts for end of September that I want to roll up and in to get rid of them so I can start making money on new Puts.

I don't see yesterday's FSD video as a short-term catalyst, though stranger things have sparked rallies in TSLA before (Hertz?!). I think a lower cost than expected M3 refresh and a better-than-expected Cybertruck ramp certainly could be, though. Perhaps, like @dl003 likes to remind us, the "catalyst" doesn't really matter - the positioning of players in the market does. The TSLA Hertz rally is certainly evidence of that, and I would say this week's NVDA action is too.

 

[tivoboy]

I don't see yesterday's FSD video as a short-term catalyst, though stranger things have sparked rallies in TSLA before (Hertz?!). I think a lower cost than expected M3 refresh and a better-than-expected Cybertruck ramp certainly could be, though. Perhaps, like @dl003 likes to remind us, the "catalyst" doesn't really matter - the positioning of players in the market does. The TSLA Hertz rally is certainly evidence of that, and I would say this week's NVDA action is too.

I think one needs to look quite a bit farther down the road than these two upcoming catalysts..for the most part these are baked in until something significant changes about them - if it does. IF highland comes out and is really no cheaper, then would be a problem. IF CT comes out SOON, and within 90 days they have significant production and delivery, then MAYBE that gives a slight upside boost. But, it’s really the future catalysts coming into blurry focus that are 9-36 months out that should really directionally at least give upside pressure and if not momentum, some stability and predictability to upside price creep.

OR, something again relatively completely unknown and undefined or unquantified. EM really likes to do that and it often works as an unpredictable upside catalyst that can bring the momo back. Sadly, it’s often correlated around when he needs to sell some more shares, so I don’t necessarilly put that into the 2023 category anymore and more the Q1/Q2 2024 category.

 

[Max Plaid]

I still don’t like it when the car tries to run red lights, and I guess EM STILL doesn’t like it either. I don’t think the market or the regulators will like it either. I was hoping for just some phantom braking still, some poor manners with respect to other cars, but trying to run a red light isn’t going to cut it.

That’s why we trade, and not just HODL - at least why I do.

I think best to do both, which is what I'm trying very hard to evolve towards... my issue now is that I was too confident last July with the upcoming split and went almost-all-in on TSLA at $900 pre-split, and we all know what happened after that! Then in my "desperation" to make some cash back I got caught underwater on calls back in May and ended up selling off the shares at $150

Saving grace is that I used a fair chunk of the cash and loaded up on LEAPS at $167 - $173, so I'l actually in a better position than I would have been just holding the shares and have a good chance to re-acquire them end of 2025 while making a decent wedge of premium in the meantime

At least that's the plan...

 

[Jim Holder]

Any credence to this? Typically H&S by definition come from uptrends, not downtrend.

 

[Jim Holder]

Option chain implies rally this week (watch at 2x speed, he speaks so slow…):

 

[dl003]

Any credence to this? Typically H&S by definition come from uptrends, not downtrend.

View attachment 968494

give me any chart and Ill draw you a HnS.

 

[juanmedina]

VinFast options are now available .

 

[Max Plaid]

VinFast options are now available .

Ha ha, IV 471%

 

[SpeedyEddy]

Any credence to this? Typically H&S by definition come from uptrends, not downtrend.

View attachment 968494

exactly, my last pic (though badly drawn) but, It still could go either way after the higher opening, but I am in the bear camp if we don't resume the climb very soon. The run up has not been on high volume (Friday, nor today) and we must remain above 239 into the close today to later make the +242 close (that I will call my flip-flop-point to go bullish again: We are in the blue zone referring to my last graph (which is between 233 and 242). The close beyond this zone will decide if we will see $200 (as 200 day-average) or leave all the gaps behind for a massive bull run (on whatever cause)).

 

[tivoboy]

Ha ha, IV 471%

View attachment 968868

We’ve been to this rodeo, it ends with the stock down at about $20..

 

[Max Plaid]

We’ve been to this rodeo, it ends with the stock down at about $20..

Yeah, but I'm not paying $50 for ATM puts, maybe wait until it get shorted to hell, then buy some shitcalls for when WSB pile-in and squeeze it up

 

[SpeedyEddy]

Ha ha, IV 471%

I sold march'24 calls 90 immediately, of course no option to buy puts.
What a mess of a company, without any outlook AFAIK

VinFast Auto Ltd. (VFS) Financials - Income Statement - Stock Analysis

Detailed annual and quarterly income statement for VinFast Auto Ltd. (VFS). See many years of revenue, expenses and profits or losses.

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Even Nikola looked better and we know how that went..

 

[SpeedyEddy]

Ok, it looks like the market is slowly turning up now. Possibly leaving the blue zone on the upside today(in which case @dl003 is absolutely spot on with his really educated guess. Already closed the last of my rolled -CC and sold 235 puts for Friday although dl003 absolutely is right on waiting for after the decisive move, which I did not follow, so don't try this at home.)