Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[SpeedyEddy]

all theories posted over here today can be right really, but a dump is most likely, could be short-lived-though, I consider 300+ later this year really not far-fetched. So mid-term I am on that horse (Tuesday even bought dec'23 C265 to take a profit from later this year) short term it can (and will!) go both ways, in fact that is what all of you say. but flipping from short-term -C to short-term -P is not too far away anymore in my playbook. Few days to confirm 212 bottom with a higher one, I guess.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

(BTW could've held on to both -P -C NVDA options in hindsight, I guess (400-530 range was safe))

 

[tivoboy]

Remember, Jackson Hole is tomorrow and Friday and MOST of those Governors don’t live at 6,500 ft. Year round so they are likely to be LIGHT HEADED and make silly / stupid comments.. And don’t even get me started if they start drinking!.. We could see across the market and high growth stocks (which HAVE done nicely in the past 7 days) pull back quickly to their most recent sub 50 day and closer to the 100’s day. I think call sellers had to buy NVDA after hours, and are still buying and will get clear, then hope to push it down somewhere closer to $475 very quickly, certainly by Friday.

Absolute WORST thing that could have happened to NVDA is what has happened in the past 4.25 trading hours.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

229.50 will probably be first kind of support at which I will close the -c 227.5 (and not roll...)

 

[Max Plaid]

Things change quickly, eh? Still had a partially executed BTC 58c -c230 @$4.9 open from yesterday (was a day order, but as only 2x contracts closed out yesterday, it has kept the order in place overnight)

So that's half of them now gone, have se a lower buy order for the remaining 60x, don't mind winging those a bit now, the risk is dramatically reduced and I even made a modest 50c per share on those

Whoops, forgot to post this... in the meantime I went out for a run in the forest and the rest got bought back too

Now to go a little more sensible: STO 10x -230 straddle for $7.1+$7.1

Waiting for a recovery to commit to some shitcalls for next week, would prefer to be selling $265 and above from here

 

[SpeedyEddy]

228 was not the bottom for today, I would say. BTC227.5 closed anyway. Stuck with 1x -CC 200 yet (can close that @ SP 220-ish to make up yesterday’s loss on the other one. )That point will trigger me going short term OTM -P as well

 

[elasalle]

I'm a little wary of the current bounce being short lived before we dive back down into next week to test the uptrend line again. My wariness sort of aligns with this MTM video from today.

I note that a similar thing happened around Powell's Jackson Hole speech last year (August 26 2022). TSLA peaked near the open that Friday at $302 and then sold off all day down to $286 in AH and then bottomed at around $266 late the next week before rebounding over $300 again.

View attachment 967795

So I'm sticking to minimal long leverage until we hit the $216-$222 range or until it's clear we will remain in an uptrend.

this got me thinking and hence I took some profits at the open.
6K to the bank option_sniper style, rest dry powder itching to buy more calls ....
how big of a hole can Jackson hole create anyway .... cheers!!

 

[CHGolferJim]

Don’t usually do overnight trades, but this was too tempting with NVDA earnings coming out Wed night and the reasonable probability of a TSLA drop Thu: Wed sto 4 x 25Aug$240 at $3, then closed today at $0.50. Was tempted to roll up and out, but decided to uncover the shares for next week.

 

[EVNow]

Did not expect this price action today after NVDA ER and yesterday's after hours action.

Wonder whether we'll see reverse action tomorrow if they like what Powell says or another drop if not.

 

[MikeC]

Closed all short calls this morning for pretty much breakeven because I expected a recovery after a quick dip. I also unfortunately rolled 225c out yesterday.

Also closed out my NVDA 455-480 BCS too early at a loss. Did not expect NVDA to end flat today - they must be furious at the manipulators right now over on the NVDA investor forum (if there is one). I wonder if they’re just clearing out weeklies for tomorrow and if it will head back up next week.

Btw, nice call @tivoboy

 

[tivoboy]

Closed all short calls this morning for pretty much breakeven because I expected a recovery after a quick dip. I also unfortunately rolled 225c out yesterday.

Also closed out my NVDA 455-480 BCS too early at a loss. Did not expect NVDA to end flat today - they must be furious at the manipulators right now over on the NVDA investor forum (if there is one). I wonder if they’re just clearing out weeklies for tomorrow and if it will head back up next week.

Btw, nice call @tivoboy

Magic 8 ball says, MAYBE by tomorrow, but I doubt we see $500 again before Sept, there are SOOO many $500 strike calls in the OI for that month, I doubt anyone wants to let it get through that level.

My read is, we quickly get back to where we STARTED THE WEEK (albeit SLIGHTLY higher), ~ $428, and then possibly get a sub $400 in the next 30 trading days.

Everything you’ve done with TSLA over the past five years..everything you’ve LEARNED about the manipulation, the options strategies, the MM shenanigans, etc. etc. etc…. Apply that NOW to NVDA, this is the new manipulation horseman.

 

[Max Plaid]

Magic 8 ball says, MAYBE by tomorrow, but I doubt we see $500 again before Sept, there are SOOO many $500 strike calls in the OI for that month, I doubt anyone wants to let it get through that level.

My read is, we quickly get back to where we STARTED THE WEEK (albeit SLIGHTLY higher), ~ $428, and then possibly get a sub $400 in the next 30 trading days.

Everything you’ve done with TSLA over the past five years..everything you’ve LEARNED about the manipulation, the options strategies, the MM shenanigans, etc. etc. etc…. Apply that NOW to NVDA, this is the new manipulation horseman.

Does this also mean trading NVDA options is $/$ more profitable than TSLA? is it worth splitting the two??

A very unscientific comparison, ATM calls and puts for TSLA for next week was 6.25 at close yesterday, give or take, on a share price of 230, 2.7% roic. NVDA ATM's ~13.10 on a share price of 471.50, it's almost the same 2.75% roic

So the answer there would be nothing to be gained there, other than perhaps hedging risk by splitting stocks

Ergo the advantage would be to stick with TSLA given the in-depth knowledge we have. Now I wonder if Nvidia will start to get FUD attacks, can't say I pay any attention to them, and Is suppose they have a very conventional CEO, so less material for the media to work with

 

[Max Plaid]

I had a small epiphany this morning... I currently hold 3500 $TSLA with a cost price of 25x $250 and 10x $260, but all from assigned puts, mostly straddled with calls at the time, so the net price is more like $230 average

Now given that I have 90x Dec 2025 +c140 LEAP (+$73) and 60x +c200 (+$58), it actually makes no sense to hold onto the $TSLA, they're more expensive than the LEAPS

So I'm going to use the shares for The Wheel from here, won't be too sad if they flip to cash as I can get back into puts

For the LEAPS, bring in some weekly beer-money with dOTM calls

My goal is to end up with 10000 $TSLA and the rough equivalent in cash

 

[jeewee3000]

I had a small epiphany this morning... I currently hold 3500 $TSLA with a cost price of 25x $250 and 10x $260, but all from assigned puts, mostly straddled with calls at the time, so the net price is more like $230 average

Now given that I have 90x Dec 2025 +c140 LEAP (+$73) and 60x +c200 (+$58), it actually makes no sense to hold onto the $TSLA, they're more expensive than the LEAPS

So I'm going to use the shares for The Wheel from here, won't be too sad if they flip to cash as I can get back into puts

For the LEAPS, bring in some weekly beer-money with dOTM calls

My goal is to end up with 10000 $TSLA and the rough equivalent in cash

What do you consider deep OTM calls? Premium of <$0.50 with less than 7 DTE ?

 

[Max Plaid]

What do you consider deep OTM calls? Premium of <$0.50 with less than 7 DTE ?

For the shitcalls I'm looking more at the strike than the premium. From here I consider -c240 as OK for my aggressive calls and $265 most likely very safe - although overnight CT/Highland news could blow-up that idea, but yes, 50c is probably good on any given weed, I'd say - out of hours gap-up is the big risk, like we got last Friday close to Monday open, you can lose the possibility to roll while still OTM, then it starts to get tricky

MP down to 230, but we all knew that from yesterday's price action, didn't we...?

 

[SebastienBonny]

Does this also mean trading NVDA options is $/$ more profitable than TSLA? is it worth splitting the two??

A very unscientific comparison, ATM calls and puts for TSLA for next week was 6.25 at close yesterday, give or take, on a share price of 230, 2.7% roic. NVDA ATM's ~13.10 on a share price of 471.50, it's almost the same 2.75% roic

So the answer there would be nothing to be gained there, other than perhaps hedging risk by splitting stocks

Ergo the advantage would be to stick with TSLA given the in-depth knowledge we have. Now I wonder if Nvidia will start to get FUD attacks, can't say I pay any attention to them, and Is suppose they have a very conventional CEO, so less material for the media to work with

Would be very careful with other stocks if you don't follow the company/stock like you follow Tesla.
There is a lot of information everyday about Tesla (company and stock). Of course you make your own decisions, but that information can help.
ATM Nvidia has a good flow and excellent prospects, but like you say, returns are about the same, so can't really see another reason than hedging risk (then again you could say being at both sides of the table - ie selling calls and puts - is hedging as well).

Personally I think the crazy stock action on Tesla with the enormous pullback after could be in store for Nvidia as well, but only time will tell.

 

[Max Plaid]

Would be very careful with other stocks if you don't follow the company/stock like you follow Tesla.
There is a lot of information everyday about Tesla (company and stock). Of course you make your own decisions, but that information can help.
ATM Nvidia has a good flow and excellent prospects, but like you say, returns are about the same, so can't really see another reason than hedging risk (then again you could say being at both sides of the table - ie selling calls and puts - is hedging as well).

Personally I think the crazy stock action on Tesla with the enormous pullback after could be in store for Nvidia as well, but only time will tell.

Yes indeed, it was all those years of knowing the reality of Tesla, or at least a version closer to the truth, and ignoring the garbage from the media that had me HODL the stock until it went nuts in 2020/1, so yeah, knowledge give an edge in this game for sure and all other stocks I've tried to trade, namely AAPL and GOOGL have not been great

 

[tivoboy]

Does this also mean trading NVDA options is $/$ more profitable than TSLA? is it worth splitting the two??

A very unscientific comparison, ATM calls and puts for TSLA for next week was 6.25 at close yesterday, give or take, on a share price of 230, 2.7% roic. NVDA ATM's ~13.10 on a share price of 471.50, it's almost the same 2.75% roic

So the answer there would be nothing to be gained there, other than perhaps hedging risk by splitting stocks

Ergo the advantage would be to stick with TSLA given the in-depth knowledge we have. Now I wonder if Nvidia will start to get FUD attacks, can't say I pay any attention to them, and Is suppose they have a very conventional CEO, so less material for the media to work with

I didn’t say shift away, only that there’s a new options / equity price manipulation beast here… and with NVDA valuation surpassing TSLA now quite significantly the overall options valuation will follow soon enough.. beta will catch up too. The only real difference is the upstream and downstream derivative impacts with NVDA are actually higher and MORE of them than with TSLA. Think upstream partners like TSMC, AMSL, CLOG, and then everything downstream in the ecosystem, MSFT, ORCL, META, larger areas of the SMH and beyond. My concern is it could swing and impact too many things too violently, good or bad.

And yes, NVDA will totally see FUD attacks, everyone at the top of the mountain does in some way. not minutes after their reporting, analysts were already talking about “double ordering” which totally is a THING and a part of their reporting, but Q2 and for Q3, risk in China where they still get ~ 20% of their revenues, risks with Taiwan, since TSMC is their primary partner, so FUD will come from all directions, that’s nothing new.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

Still not bullish, green hourly not big enough, 239 not crossed violently: Going down, still holding on to -CC 200 (most likely will roll to -CC 205-ish later today)

 

[SpeedyEddy]

Head and Shoulders formation hourly looking very bad, neckline (241,28) touched in bounce few trading hours ago, then going down, from the 299 top, so 183 target IMHO.. Sorry to be so bearish