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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
so -C275 looks safe enough to me at the moment, maybe have to roll 'm up, but rather to -P, because it all looks more bullish to me
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
Yeah. Probably not in 1 day on the other side.
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
Whycoff on the other hand (on the minute) would indicate no chance we end any bit higher than were we are (going down into the close) is the most likely outcome if I would have to bet anything. So we follow macro until big news will hit the fan, so hold on to stock, but a bearish turn short-term is most likely. Be back bullish in a week or 2, let's wait to go hugely oversold on the daily as amended for yesterday. Never forget Tesla one day will be the biggest stock on earth, the rest is just "playing around and as usual retailers being busy handing over money to the big boys"
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
Did not manage to sell all portions with a profit on the way down, but sure this was the post profitable day this week, thanks to the high predictability. Maybe will close a bit of the the -C275, but only if it will cover for the few little losses. Overnight I don't want to be leveraged too much. I feel an important FSD announcement coming in hot. (especially Licensing out, which I called for a few years ago besides Tesla becoming an Energy player at first in the future (in terms of revenue) but most profitable on licensing (FSD, Robotaxi, Autobidder, non-Tesla-bots)
Ellison's comments on FSD were crazy bullish. We are also due a CT announcement any day.
Edit, that was not a Freudian slip!
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SpeedyEddy
Active Member
I would not be surprised to see an island reversal on the daily one of these days. Possibly accompanied by a little or bigger black swan, and then I take a look at banks, countries that are multiple timezones before us or nature getting even more crazy (Earthquakes coming in Swarms..)
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SpeedyEddy
Active Member
Look at the similarities of the 5-min and the hourly chart... And how the hourly could progress regarding the 5 min.....
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
SO.. could it be in stead of 290, 255 coming in soon? (still got +P255 for friday, ready to turn profitable..) Got rid of all -c275's with a decent profit
Did you mean crazy bullish?
actually I'm not looking for 255 anymore. 260 maybe.
BTC all short calls and went flat at weekly support touch for nice gains. Not writing more calls until we see a clearer trend.
So far nice bounce off convergences of daily low range, weekly low range, and Max Pain ($262 area). Let's see if we base here or fall further.
Option GEX suggests $261 remains strong support and end week ending around $263 area barring breaking news or major Macro dump.
Let's see!
So far nice bounce off convergences of daily low range, weekly low range, and Max Pain ($262 area). Let's see if we base here or fall further.
Option GEX suggests $261 remains strong support and end week ending around $263 area barring breaking news or major Macro dump.
Let's see!
Closed my 9/22 -c290s too early, but more than made up for by 9/22 +p255s that I sold at a nice profit.
Overall, still looking to open 10/20 -c300s between now and the end of next week. I remain bearish overall going into P&D and Q3 earnings, but am still wary of positive surprises.
Overall, still looking to open 10/20 -c300s between now and the end of next week. I remain bearish overall going into P&D and Q3 earnings, but am still wary of positive surprises.
Loved the 10/20 -C310 @Oil4AsphaultOnly chose, so much that I rolled 9/22 -C300 while at $272 for a nice credit, just bought back a few minutes ago while at $263. Across the two days, locked in almost 45% ! I could have gone overnight but why leave that on the table when I can reset once the dust settles
EDIT: 10/20 not 10/12
EDIT: 10/20 not 10/12
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That was some bizarre price action today. TSLA super strong against macro until the big dump 14:30ish - what initiated that??
Worked out OK for me, besides closing 100x -p255's on the pop, I also bought +15x Dec 2025 +p270, and BTC the 20x Sep 2024 -c300's I fat-fingered yesterday for +$1 profit per contract, $2000 accidental free money there...
Might resell the -p255's tomorrow if we get some weakness, would have though all the puts 260 and below would drive Friday's close
Worked out OK for me, besides closing 100x -p255's on the pop, I also bought +15x Dec 2025 +p270, and BTC the 20x Sep 2024 -c300's I fat-fingered yesterday for +$1 profit per contract, $2000 accidental free money there...
Might resell the -p255's tomorrow if we get some weakness, would have though all the puts 260 and below would drive Friday's close
Loved the 10/20 -C310 @Oil4AsphaultOnly chose, so much that I rolled 9/22 -C300 while at $272 for a nice credit, just bought back a few minutes ago while at $263. Across the two days, locked in almost 45% ! I could have gone overnight but why leave that on the table when I can reset once the dust settles
EDIT: 10/20 not 10/12
They're at a 25% gain at the moment. Will close them tomorrow morning (was busy today and was AFK when market closed) if SP reaches 261, just because I think the market will recover from this afternoon's "sentiment".
As silly as it might appear, I think it was Fed related.. and we’re clearly in the higher for longer narrative and prediction.
For Tesla, and autos that’s going to keep lending rates higher for longer, which puts downward pressure on borrowing and thus buying. We’re sitting at about 300-325 bps higher than Feb 2022 rates, and it does have an effect on purchasing decisions.
I fully expect domestic OEM’s and Tesla included to start BUYING DOWN lending rates. Domestic OEM have already started this and will increase their buy down. Tesla historically hasn’t really done this, but I believe they will soon begin. We could start seeing it within days. I’d put it at probably somewhere between 150-200 bps buy down. ~ 2.99-3.99% rates for 700+ buyers.
To that end, I still continue to think we’ll see disproportionate downward pressure on our trading vehicle, so I’m taking a gentleman’s (or gentle-ladies) bet with dl003 that we’ll see sub 255/250.
still short the 7 -c275 10/20 (19.5) but i’d like to buy them back and sell some closer to the money 10/20 for higher premium.
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