Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Jim Holder]

So after thought about balancing r:r, my plan today is to wait for best guess of HOD and sell half my longs (3,000 shares) and all my +C150 2025 LEAP calls and wait for Monday. This way if SP indeed tanks next week at least half my shares that I sold are safe in cash and I can escape the second half a bit further down albeit with some slippage.

The LEAPS don’t move that much on price action anyway so if SP races for some reason I can just rebuy them at first chance a just risk a bit of slippage. Same for the half of my shares I sold. I think this balances best of both sides. Open to feedback if I’m missing something.

 

[Blue horseshoe]

So after thought about balancing r:r, my plan today is to wait for best guess of HOD and sell half my longs (3,000 shares) and all my +C150 2025 LEAP calls and wait for Monday. This way if SP indeed tanks next week at least half my shares that I sold are safe in cash and I can escape the second half a bit further down albeit with some slippage.

The LEAPS don’t move that much on price action anyway so if SP races for some reason I can just rebuy them at first chance a just risk a bit of slippage. Same for the half of my shares I sold. I think this balances best of both sides. Open to feedback if I’m missing something.

I also have 150 leaps but don't want to incur stcg taxes by selling them to rebuy. Contemplating selling closer to atm calls against them to synthetically mirror your trade and hold the leaps to sell next year when they're in ltcg territory

 

[Max Plaid]

True! I’m still a bit green and trigger shy, especially having been painfully burnt a few times from impulsive mistakes which at least taught me to think twice and even more before taking decisive action. Selling everything at hit of 251-255 tomorrow (if it hits) is scary in case a rabbit swan appears and we fly Monday. But you’re right, the chances of that happening especially with the overall market below the 50-day and wounded in general is very tiny. And I can reap something from any correction regardless how big or small.

Re your puts, do you mean 110x -p240? That’s hella exposure even w/40x -C240 against them.

It might go +10% on Monday for no specific reason, maybe the "miss" isn't so bad CT delivery event get's announced, etc. That's my point, it cannot be predicted at all, and making short term bets on such predictions tends to cause more pain than joy

As for my 110x -p200's - these are against March 200x +p200 and that I BTO to cover the downside and 20x Dec 2025 +p270, so the risk is very limited as I have 110x contracts free to double-up/flip to alternate weeks for rolling down

Make trades you think/hope will win, but always be sure to have a Plan B, C, D... ready for when they don't

 

[Max Plaid]

Worth noting that Stan Morgan (=Jonas) reiterated the $400 buy in a note yesterday, is that a "buy" signal again? Why say it agin less than two weeks after it was first put out there??

 

[Jim Holder]

Worth noting that Stan Morgan (=Jonas) reiterated the $400 buy in a note yesterday, is that a "buy" signal again? Why say it agin less than two weeks after it was first put out there??

Also:

Piper Sandler cuts Tesla estimates; doubts TSLA will sell off as a result

"Tesla will soon release Q3 delivery data; in preparation for this, we are cutting our Q3 forecast from 515k+ to 445k units. This change is due entirely to downtime in Shanghai and Austin, where Tesla shuttered its plants in preparation for launching new products (the updated Model 3 and Cybertruck). Deliveries had been surprisingly strong up until recently, which is why it took us so long to cut our forecast, but the impact of shutdowns is now evident in weekly data. Arguably, intentional plant shutdowns should not be interpreted negatively, so if Q3 results are a "miss", we doubt TSLA will sell off."

 

[OrthoSurg]

Also:

Piper Sandler cuts Tesla estimates; doubts TSLA will sell off as a result

"Tesla will soon release Q3 delivery data; in preparation for this, we are cutting our Q3 forecast from 515k+ to 445k units. This change is due entirely to downtime in Shanghai and Austin, where Tesla shuttered its plants in preparation for launching new products (the updated Model 3 and Cybertruck). Deliveries had been surprisingly strong up until recently, which is why it took us so long to cut our forecast, but the impact of shutdowns is now evident in weekly data. Arguably, intentional plant shutdowns should not be interpreted negatively, so if Q3 results are a "miss", we doubt TSLA will sell off."

Green premarket on a note cutting delivery estimates. The more WS lower down estimates the best are the chances of a beat I guess. Once they announce the delivery event of the first 100 Cybertruck to TSLA employees, market being forward looking I wouldn’t be surprised to see an instant +10% day on such good news we have been waiting for more than 3 years

 

[Max Plaid]

Final 1x -p270 assigned...

Edit: PCE slightly cool

 

[UncaNed]

No these are long shares I bought at 16. So from 16-247 is long term cap gains that I know. The question is from 247 to 500 outlined above. Unless the IRS mandates that I have to pay short term cap gain on the entire gain of my stock if my shares are called away within a year? That would be devastating.

And yeah it doesn't make sense that's why I am wondering typically the shares are safe from being called away until stock price is at least 340+.

The capital gains would be devastating.

Question - when an option is assigned, do you get to attribute the shares they've taken away by ID, like you do anytime you sell a bunch of shares (you can usually select F.I.F.O. or L.I.F.O. on your brokerage's dashboard, but then right after selling shares, you have a day or two to go back and select "By ID", selling your most expensive shares to minimize tax liability vs. those that you bought at only $16.

If it does allow you to assign specific shares, then perhaps this might be a good reason to buy and hold enough shares on the dips so that you always have anough more recently purchased shares that cost more than your longest held shares you can attribute to being called away due to the option being called away to minimize yor tax burden.

 

[intelligator]

Looks like OI layed mostly on puts. M-P remained the same at 245, put call ratio is .70 ... 247.5 and 250 have almost symmetrical opposed interest, 240 highest put interest. Ironically I sold 2x -c247.5 and 2x -c250, will watch the flows today, decide if I just roll these ATM to next week, add a few more dollars per share before i let these puppies go. Not much movement on the call side, 250 being the highest.

 

[Singuy]

The capital gains would be devastating.

Question - when an option is assigned, do you get to attribute the shares they've taken away by ID, like you do anytime you sell a bunch of shares (you can usually select F.I.F.O. or L.I.F.O. on your brokerage's dashboard, but then right after selling shares, you have a day or two to go back and select "By ID", selling your most expensive shares to minimize tax liability vs. those that you bought at only $16.

If it does allow you to assign specific shares, then perhaps this might be a good reason to buy and hold enough shares on the dips so that you always have anough more recently purchased shares that cost more than your longest held shares you can attribute to being called away due to the option being called away to minimize yor tax burden.

100% of my shares are 4 years old. Just trying to figure out what kind of 2025/2026 leaps I want to sell in order to capture a good chunk of premium and not be assigned in under a year.

 

[UncaNed]

So after thought about balancing r:r, my plan today is to wait for best guess of HOD and sell half my longs (3,000 shares) and all my +C150 2025 LEAP calls and wait for Monday. This way if SP indeed tanks next week at least half my shares that I sold are safe in cash and I can escape the second half a bit further down albeit with some slippage.

The LEAPS don’t move that much on price action anyway so if SP races for some reason I can just rebuy them at first chance a just risk a bit of slippage. Same for the half of my shares I sold. I think this balances best of both sides. Open to feedback if I’m missing something.

With enough LEAPS, that "Bit of Slippage" of yours adds up enough to hurt, IMHO. But you're makeing me feel a tiny bit better for trhe times I've dumped my LEAPS and had to buy them back at a loss... but that costs way more than just a little lunch money.

I might also factor in if I'm selling my older LEAPS and plan to buy later-expiring LEAPS in the same transaction, but the difference betrween Dceember 2025 and January 2026 LEAPS isn;t that great really.

 

[Max Plaid]

100% of my shares are 4 years old. Just trying to figure out what kind of 2025/2026 leaps I want to sell in order to capture a good chunk of premium and not be assigned in under a year.

Note that when you sell a call, there's always the option to roll them up and out, so if they really went ITM you could sell a few shares, buy the rest back and resell at a higher strike for more premium

Then you'd get a loss on the options that would offset the capital gains on the sold shares, kick the tax can sown the road a bit

At least that's how it would work for me in Belgium, but US tax rules on this are perhaps more complex

 

[Jim Holder]

QTA generated levels for today

 

[dl003]

Y'all still tracking events hoping for miracles?

One of my favourite tools to predict the future is fractals. Fractals are intricate (complex) setups on the chart that repeat themselves. This can happen on the same timeframe / wave degree or it can happen on different time frames / wave degrees. At first it gives you a vague deja vu feeling, but then the pieces keep falling into place and so for the next days or weeks you seem to be able to see the future, until the current setup starts deviating from the old one.

Right now, the current correction in TSLA is tracking the 217-152 correction earlier this year super closely. Eerie. So that's going to be my basis for levels and forecasts until it turns out to be grade A voodoo.

View attachment 977685

217-152 corrected the first leg up from 102 to 217. This time 298 - 185 is going to correct the entire 102-298 rally. Look at the 2 side by side, starting with the first leg down in yellow and how they both ended at anchored vwap running from 102

View attachment 977686


Then look at the big dead cat that came after. 1st spike. small consolidation. Break out. Big consolidation. Break out. Blow off top. Flush.

View attachment 977687

The 217-152 correction ended at the lower band of AVWAP. This time I'm betting it's going to do the same thing at 185-190.
View attachment 977688
251 is where short positions can be considered. 256 if mr. market is generous.

Still tracking it.

 

[tivoboy]

QTA generated levels for today

View attachment 978118

Do they ever backrest this data?

 

[Jim Holder]

Still tracking it.
View attachment 978119

So $251 is still where short positions can be considered; $256 if mr. market is generous?

 

[Jim Holder]

Do they ever backrest this data?

I believe so, check their site. I've been tracking it for a bit over a week, search my posts to have a look. I found it helpful.

 

[BornToFly]

Sold 305 naked calls for next Friday.

 

[Jim Holder]

QTA range high holding for now

 

[Knightshade]

Rolled a few dozen today -c252.50 to next friday 257.50 for ~3.50 net credit assuming monday dip and iv dive... backup plan is roll to other side of ER with similar intent