Asking myself this as well. I really hope the thoughts that a crap PD are priced in are just wishful thinking.
Even if it's "priced in" then I don't see how we could see any major upside from these numbers.
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
Even if it's "priced in" then I don't see how we could see any major upside from these numbers.
I heard earlier this week from Joe Tegtmeyer (TX drone youtuber) that company executives were looking to greenlight Cybertruck production on Monday. On the heels of that comes this:
So hard to know how this will play out intermixed with a possibly now priced-in P&D miss. I'm going to continue to sit out selling calls for now. If we hit $255, maybe.
So hard to know how this will play out intermixed with a possibly now priced-in P&D miss. I'm going to continue to sit out selling calls for now. If we hit $255, maybe.
Hmmmm ... considering how high the cat bounced (for the macros), it seems we're over the doldrums of last week's Fed plan to not reduce rates until next year. My 10/6 -245p are finally OTM!
We blew by $245 pretty easily, only a slight hesitation. Don’t forget tomorrow is EOQ window dressing time for the ETF and mutual funds. Usually there is a run up. Also, according to a recent @dl003 prediction, $251-$255, is a decent target.
3x -p270 assigned overnight, 1x remains - with only 127 still open accord to Max Pain, I guess I'm "special" 
So 100x -p240 and 40x -c240 in play, going to wait on that lot, certainly on the puts, they're still trading at $1 today, tomorrow at $245 will be 10c, then they can roll to same strike next week, +10x for good luck
The -c240's I'll roll to same strike too, don't really care about those as they're against 2000x (well 1900 right now) $TSLA from -p270's (less premiums) and 20x Dec 2026 +c270's written at $255, so zero stress
So 100x -p240 and 40x -c240 in play, going to wait on that lot, certainly on the puts, they're still trading at $1 today, tomorrow at $245 will be 10c, then they can roll to same strike next week, +10x for good luck
The -c240's I'll roll to same strike too, don't really care about those as they're against 2000x (well 1900 right now) $TSLA from -p270's (less premiums) and 20x Dec 2026 +c270's written at $255, so zero stress
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SpeedyEddy
Active Member
Yeah what else was the shiny deck in front of giga Texas for?
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
So far so good, day-traded C250 for tomorrow, bringing me 90 cents a piece (just closed that, for a night out with the lady, not wanting to deal with hitting the absolute top, counting on another volatile day tomorrow). Closed out all of the shares again (with a moderate profit), The earlier named Calls 250 for next week I obviously STO-ed too early, but they will make a profit, I guess. Some you win fast, some you win a bit over a week...
BTW: USP maybe is behind us already for today. I wish you all good trades and... see ya tomorrow. [Edit] got an early one[/edit]
BTW: USP maybe is behind us already for today. I wish you all good trades and... see ya tomorrow. [Edit] got an early one[/edit]
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QTA today:
Looks like market tried the inverse of yesterday but couldn't hold over $247.
I wonder if tomorrow FOMO can get us over $250+ area and set us up for opening shorts and selling longs/calls or we've seen the top for now.
Meanwhile scaled in some short calls starter positions throughout the day:
12x -C275 10/20 @$3.80
10x -C285 10/20 @$2.50
2x -C300 10/20 @$1.45
[Edit: One niggling gremlin: What if the Q3 P&D miss is/was priced in from the $298-$245 fall and TSLA won't collapse next week as we think it will?]
Looks like market tried the inverse of yesterday but couldn't hold over $247.
I wonder if tomorrow FOMO can get us over $250+ area and set us up for opening shorts and selling longs/calls or we've seen the top for now.
Meanwhile scaled in some short calls starter positions throughout the day:
12x -C275 10/20 @$3.80
10x -C285 10/20 @$2.50
2x -C300 10/20 @$1.45
[Edit: One niggling gremlin: What if the Q3 P&D miss is/was priced in from the $298-$245 fall and TSLA won't collapse next week as we think it will?]
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How many Tesla/TSLA end of quarters have you experienced? Nothing ever seems to be "priced in", we beat it goes up, we beat, it goes down, because it didn't beat enough... etc. Usually it makes no sense whatsoever - look at Q2, that was a beat, stock dumped. Look at NVDA recently, total blow-out earnings, stock dropped 20%, so you really don't know
For me, I'm STO everything* at -240, 110x -p & 40x -c, so up or down, I'll get something out of it, both sides of that trade can be rolled easily enough
To be clear though, I would actually like the stock to gravitate back up to the 300's, but I am positioned to take advantage of a correction too - painful experience has taught me some harsh lessons over the years
Edit: *just to be clear, but "everything" I don't mean all-in, just not any other strikes next week, I will still have 110x free +p I can write against in case we get a big drop...
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True! I’m still a bit green and trigger shy, especially having been painfully burnt a few times from impulsive mistakes which at least taught me to think twice and even more before taking decisive action. Selling everything at hit of 251-255 tomorrow (if it hits) is scary in case a rabbit swan appears and we fly Monday. But you’re right, the chances of that happening especially with the overall market below the 50-day and wounded in general is very tiny. And I can reap something from any correction regardless how big or small.
Re your puts, do you mean 110x -p240? That’s hella exposure even w/40x -C240 against them.
Your shares could theoretically be called away anytime period, but this never happens unless it is at par with market.
When it actually happens is when there is little or no time premium left.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
One of the lessons for me from the short calls I got trapped into over the last few months is to not read this thread daily
It's easy to geat caught up with the herd by progressively taking on more risk.
Okay, I was just looking at tax laws on option selling and it's kind of complex.
So correct me if I'm wrong.
Say I am selling 2026 jan leaps with a strike price of 500 and premium of 29.75
So if say Tesla solves FSD and Optimus next month and share price hits 550
I will have to pay short term cap gain between 247 and 500, and short term capital gain on my premium made
If Tesla solves FSD/Optimus a year from now
I will pay long term cap gain between 247-500, and pay short term cap gain on the premium but it's due in the tax year it is called away.
This sounds about right?
Now what if I sell say 270 dollar Jan 2026 leaps for 76 dollars premium? I am assuming the shares will be called away when at least the contract breaks even for the buyer right? Because Tesla can be at 270 next week just because....
Did you buy shares at 247 that you are selling the LEAP against?
For the 270 2026 LEAP, why would a buyer buy a call for some 70 odd dollars in order to exercise it and then pay 270 dollars for the shares when they can buy the shares for 270 at market?
No these are long shares I bought at 16. So from 16-247 is long term cap gains that I know. The question is from 247 to 500 outlined above. Unless the IRS mandates that I have to pay short term cap gain on the entire gain of my stock if my shares are called away within a year? That would be devastating.
And yeah it doesn't make sense that's why I am wondering typically the shares are safe from being called away until stock price is at least 340+.
You have to do a quick calculation to see the time value left on the option. For example, a 220C exp 1/2024 is going for $44 now. Add 44 to 220 you get 264. Stock price is at 247 right now, so take 264 - 247 you'll get 17 which is the time value of the option, aka extrinsic value. Intrinsic value is what remains after you take the extrinsic out of the premium, so 27 in this case.
An option is at risk of early assignment only when the time value / extrinsic value goes near $0, meaning there's no incentive for the option buyer to hold on to these. So, just because a call gets ITM doesn't mean it'll get exercised. In fact, we'd love to have it exercised with tons of extrinsic value left as that's extra money in your pocket and time value forfeited by the buyer, but it doesn't work like that.
One quick way to find out the extrinsic value on certain option is to look at the premium on the opposite side (call - put). The premium on an OTM call is going to approximate the time value of the same strike put and vice versa. But it's not going to be exactly the same because interest rate is so high now so time value on call options are higher than that of the same strike put, due to the required capital outlay.
But, when time value approaches $0, this difference will shrink and you'll get a good approximation.
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The selling of covered calls against long held stock only pauses the holding period. So if your shares are called away, the entire profit (minus the premium collected from selling the covered call) is taxed as long term cap gains: Tax Implications of Covered Calls - Fidelity
Cary update for Friday trading:
Over $251.54 can see $260.44 where it can top out for the day and fall off from there towards $233.95 in 1-2 weeks.
Closing below $231.61 at any point is a sell signal and expect lower $190’s in several days.
Over $251.54 can see $260.44 where it can top out for the day and fall off from there towards $233.95 in 1-2 weeks.
Closing below $231.61 at any point is a sell signal and expect lower $190’s in several days.
Happy to see you drop in ;- )One of the lessons for me from the short calls I got trapped into over the last few months is to not read this thread daily
It's easy to geat caught up with the herd by progressively taking on more risk.
What are your thoughts as to TSLA next week and into October trade?
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