Yoona's early perspective on next week:
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
I hasten to add that I'd prefer the SP not to shoot up to 300 any time soon, preference is writing short puts 250 and below, 260 is already getting a little uncomfortable, but it's necessary in helping dig my ITM calls out of the hole
This SEC thing looks like a nothing burger and has zippo to do with Tesla, it's just because Musk "accidentally" used the wrong form when he bought up 10% of Twitter, so it want's publicly available information within the prescribed 3 day period. At least that's what I understand, they wan't him to explain why that happened. Not sure it changes anything TBH, and I'm sure there are much more useful things the SEC could be spending their valuable time doing
This SEC thing looks like a nothing burger and has zippo to do with Tesla, it's just because Musk "accidentally" used the wrong form when he bought up 10% of Twitter, so it want's publicly available information within the prescribed 3 day period. At least that's what I understand, they wan't him to explain why that happened. Not sure it changes anything TBH, and I'm sure there are much more useful things the SEC could be spending their valuable time doing
From Gary Black:
“TSLA 2024 ests need to increase for $TSLA stock to move higher. Rising estimates are the most powerful predictor of a rising stock price. The converse is also true, as we saw in 2022/4Q.
“FY’23 and FY’24 Adj EPS ests continue to drift lower (-38% YTD and -29% YTD respectively) as TSLA discounted inventories and cut S/X configurator prices, without any offsetting volume gains.
“This dynamic has to change because TSLA P/E continues to increase (2024 P/E now 56x) which becomes unattractive at some point.”
“TSLA 2024 ests need to increase for $TSLA stock to move higher. Rising estimates are the most powerful predictor of a rising stock price. The converse is also true, as we saw in 2022/4Q.
“FY’23 and FY’24 Adj EPS ests continue to drift lower (-38% YTD and -29% YTD respectively) as TSLA discounted inventories and cut S/X configurator prices, without any offsetting volume gains.
“This dynamic has to change because TSLA P/E continues to increase (2024 P/E now 56x) which becomes unattractive at some point.”
Looks like there was divine intervention and all your sold calls are saved!
Price cuts. Everyone with CCs and puts can relax now.
Are those reductions large enough to warrant a negative response from the market? Seems only $2k. Anyone remember if last cuts were deeper that caused the selloff?
Edit: Last ones were deeper, but maybe any cuts are bad optics.
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Yes, response will be pretty bad. This is setting up that price cuts are not yet over and who knows when it will be over. Plus there are no positive news that can counter this.
Also price cuts on the Model 3 by 2k as well. So roughly this is 750M in profits gone for the quarter.
Insane that they just keep dropping prices like that. We got save by the bell. So now what? sell ATM calls? sale shares premarket? I can't believe Tesla is not willing to advertise. I work for an EV industry and my co-worker of 10 years had not idea that Teslas are the safest cars on the road. Elon needs to realize that the entire world is not on Twitter. Absolutely frustrating. $750 million in commercial is a lot of ads.
I think demand is exquisitely sensitive to interest rates at this point. We see rates at multi-decade highs and shortly after get another price cut. The strength from yesterday coincided with the pause in this latest surge in rates.
Makes me think we can’t break out of this range so I’ll remain comfortable selling NTM calls for now. Hope to have a chance to close out my puts tomorrow.
Makes me think we can’t break out of this range so I’ll remain comfortable selling NTM calls for now. Hope to have a chance to close out my puts tomorrow.
Mine was a Q. So yeah 2B a year
Well, maybe we get @dl003 ’s selloff this week after
But it wasn't because of TA
That’s per year
If I remember correctly, he was counting on analysts downgrading the stock based on bad delivery numbers. Surprisingly, while almost every analyst reduces their EPS estimates, did not downgrade the stock. For those who are short the stock, Elon came to the rescue yet again with another shocking price cut to both Y and 3. Elon not advertising and keep thinking everyone knows everything about a Tesla and it’s only affordability that’s making people not buy a Tesla is completely ridiculous.
Not advertising? Yes, surely there should be some carefully targeted, efficient marketing if they have to cut prices. As an investor supporting the mission, I'm glad Tesla doesn't throw away billions like traditional auto does.
Elon said they'd try it; I wonder if anything came of that. He should know what pays off and what doesn't.
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