If it stays in this flag pattern I'd guess no higher than 265 before er
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
As our master chartist would have said today - boring. If no major tesla news tomorrow should be the same.
Going ride out my puts into earning. Already cash out and these are basically net proceed - free plays. Went in a little too early on the puts play this morning but it's all cool.
My doggy sense is telling me something big is going down (or up) this Wednesday,
Going ride out my puts into earning. Already cash out and these are basically net proceed - free plays. Went in a little too early on the puts play this morning but it's all cool.
My doggy sense is telling me something big is going down (or up) this Wednesday,
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
No one know. Most is expecting him to pop up when we hit $200 on SP. That was his prediction by end if year.
jeewee3000
Active Member
Hi all.
Since @dl003 is AFK (hopefully only temporary), I'd like to point out some things about the price action since P&D.
First I'd like to say this is all based on dl003's analysis, especially these four crucial posts in a row.
dl003 gave us a plan A and a plan B.
Plan A: SP of $255 on friday september 29th was the local high before we would drop to 210-172 range.
Plan B: a more aggressive dead cat, with 269 as the target. "That dead cat is, however, still going to fail, and head backdown going into and continue after ER. However, it's not going to be a disaster, with 225 as the target."
dl003 thought plan A to be way more likely than plan B, but the recent price action was as follows:
Also we've seen this to be a dead cat AND it is heading back down into ER.
Conclusion: plan B is at play here and the target is 225. We might not be in for the disastrous $200 that the charts pointed to. (Note: this is not about me saying dl003 was right or wrong with his prediction, I'm saying he accurately predicted the $269 level and that the dead cat would fail. So he was right either way. I just hope that, in the event $200 does not come to pass, he doesn't quit the thread forever. I for one learned very much from his analysis)
Therefore I'm looking for $225 for support.
What happens after you ask?
With the words from the master: From there, TSLA will either going up to make new ATH in 2024, or it will do another dead cat, before breaking out to new ATHs. (chart from @dl003)
When the $255 possible top was called by dl003, I sold JAN2024 $190cc's against some shares, with the plan to buy these back upon the drop.
This position is around breakeven right now, but I'm holding this through ER and will look for $230-$225 to maybe switch to a more SP neutral position.
Not advice. And all credit goes to dl003.
Since @dl003 is AFK (hopefully only temporary), I'd like to point out some things about the price action since P&D.
First I'd like to say this is all based on dl003's analysis, especially these four crucial posts in a row.
dl003 gave us a plan A and a plan B.
Plan A: SP of $255 on friday september 29th was the local high before we would drop to 210-172 range.
Plan B: a more aggressive dead cat, with 269 as the target. "That dead cat is, however, still going to fail, and head backdown going into and continue after ER. However, it's not going to be a disaster, with 225 as the target."
dl003 thought plan A to be way more likely than plan B, but the recent price action was as follows:
Also we've seen this to be a dead cat AND it is heading back down into ER.
Conclusion: plan B is at play here and the target is 225. We might not be in for the disastrous $200 that the charts pointed to. (Note: this is not about me saying dl003 was right or wrong with his prediction, I'm saying he accurately predicted the $269 level and that the dead cat would fail. So he was right either way. I just hope that, in the event $200 does not come to pass, he doesn't quit the thread forever. I for one learned very much from his analysis)
Therefore I'm looking for $225 for support.
What happens after you ask?
With the words from the master: From there, TSLA will either going up to make new ATH in 2024, or it will do another dead cat, before breaking out to new ATHs. (chart from @dl003)
When the $255 possible top was called by dl003, I sold JAN2024 $190cc's against some shares, with the plan to buy these back upon the drop.
This position is around breakeven right now, but I'm holding this through ER and will look for $230-$225 to maybe switch to a more SP neutral position.
Not advice. And all credit goes to dl003.
So this is the strong retail sales pushing pre-market down? Yes, durable goods selling more than expected is obviously bad for durable goods manufacturers 
And to make things worse, we have one of the most hawkish FEDiots "speeching" right now
Edit: seems the US administration has put more restriction on chip exports, this is impacting all the "AI stocks" I think, and likely dragging down tech as a whole...
Pfff, imagine a stock market without political influence, manipulations, subsidies, analysts, etc...
And to make things worse, we have one of the most hawkish FEDiots "speeching" right now
Edit: seems the US administration has put more restriction on chip exports, this is impacting all the "AI stocks" I think, and likely dragging down tech as a whole...
Pfff, imagine a stock market without political influence, manipulations, subsidies, analysts, etc...
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And I'm holding my March 2024 +p200's for as long as I dare, selling weeklies against 30% of them to recuperate the initial cost, but they're primarily there are insurance... if we get a drop to $100 again then I'm going to buy 10000x TSLA and pocket the other $1m in cash
Very unlikely I think, but if it happens I've got it covered!
jeewee3000
Active Member
Everything can happen of course. Especially with tensions brewing in the Middle-East and the chain reaction that can start.
I'm in 2/3 shares and 1/3 cash and am waiting to sell puts against the cash for strikes I feel comfortable with. (Or I just buy stock outright if we drop far enough, and then I could sell weekly calls against that position. Still thinking it through)
I'm in 2/3 shares and 1/3 cash and am waiting to sell puts against the cash for strikes I feel comfortable with. (Or I just buy stock outright if we drop far enough, and then I could sell weekly calls against that position. Still thinking it through)
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
QTA levels for today:
Busy order book today:
Busy order book today:
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
What ever bigger drop we get before or after earnings: it will be (one of the) the last one(s) I would guess, only terrible macro development or massive shorting can bring us much lower. Why? You know the purple long term upward and downward trendlines that I showcased before and are crossing around 11th of januari 2024. Before that date there will be a resolution and it will be downward only if something really bad happens worldwide (which is a possibility, certainly now). But for now I count on upward resolution of this mother of all wedges (MOAW), in which case......drumroll.... you can add a (414-102=) $312 move, from the point that it crosses the purple line upward (after which it wil creep back tot that purple line 1 time and then shoot up) in the next 12 to 18 months
That would be a far above $550 price target in that period.
The gap between these two long term trendlines is only 281-226, so (as I said yesterday) I don't bet on a SP far below 230, so I might as wel get back in on the next dip around ER, not missing out on any surprise to the upside, instead of taking a risk in order to pick up some uncertain $ from being sidelined and even short. While writing this we already gained a few dollars, so maybe I will not even wait another day, but do acknowledge 245 could still be reached before ER.
I think there could be a rabbit in the hat in the earnings call that will turn sentiment on TSLA up (mostly Elon screws up every move, but I smell (so don't follow me!!) a surprise to the upside, so maybe I buy shares between not good Q3 report and earnings call.)
That is about shares.
Options: (I have already cashed most of the gains on -C NVDA earlier today as well as PLTR.)
Still hanging on to TSLA puts for next Friday and nov 23 , to cover for very bad things hopefully not happening (only 1000 dollars to loose on these).
So I think of -P OTM 2026 against +C OTM 2026 today and on any dip tomorrow.
[Edit] decided to make it 2x -P 230 jan '26 against 1x C220 jan '26 and will double down that on any dip tomorrow [/Edit]
That would be a far above $550 price target in that period.
The gap between these two long term trendlines is only 281-226, so (as I said yesterday) I don't bet on a SP far below 230, so I might as wel get back in on the next dip around ER, not missing out on any surprise to the upside, instead of taking a risk in order to pick up some uncertain $ from being sidelined and even short. While writing this we already gained a few dollars, so maybe I will not even wait another day, but do acknowledge 245 could still be reached before ER.
I think there could be a rabbit in the hat in the earnings call that will turn sentiment on TSLA up (mostly Elon screws up every move, but I smell (so don't follow me!!) a surprise to the upside, so maybe I buy shares between not good Q3 report and earnings call.)
That is about shares.
Options: (I have already cashed most of the gains on -C NVDA earlier today as well as PLTR.)
Still hanging on to TSLA puts for next Friday and nov 23 , to cover for very bad things hopefully not happening (only 1000 dollars to loose on these).
So I think of -P OTM 2026 against +C OTM 2026 today and on any dip tomorrow.
[Edit] decided to make it 2x -P 230 jan '26 against 1x C220 jan '26 and will double down that on any dip tomorrow [/Edit]
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It seem that we should beat earnings since the expectations are really low but it will show a down trend but they will reiterate the delivery guidance. I was really bearish at first and now I am not sure.
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
corporate share buyback windows (opening from oct 20th)
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
would share buy back push back stock price? so we expecting no downward movement to 220 but more toward 300+? at this point it's hard to tell. The SP has been quite stable since the PD missed.
EXOTIC1
Member
TSLA over $300…. Q1 2024
Book it
Book it
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Stock rebounded. Macro rebounded. off loaded all my puts, Rather be safe and nimble waiting for reentry. Be careful guys. Nothing is as it seem initially. Been through weeks like this with major Vs all day long.
I'm finding it difficult not to open any new positions. I had some 200 strike cc assigned on Friday, leaving me close to 100% cash and sitting on the sideline. I really want to start some new positions today, but my intent is that absent a significant move, I'll be waiting for earnings and then a couple of days after that to get back in. I want to see the earnings, and the initial reaction, before I get back in.
Really, really hard to sit on my hands
Really, really hard to sit on my hands
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
My doggy sense is telling me earning not be good - missing even the low revised expectation - same as PD. How SP moved is dependence more on the forecast and announcement. If Tesla announce Cybertruck and can ship thousand within Q4 who know how high SP can pump. I'm more incline to see where SP is toward the mid and end of Wednesday before making a call. It will trade flat or maybe pump toward 260 before earning.
Risk and Reward - Get in before earning higher risk higher reward - Get in after earning lower risk lower reward. But if SP goes crazy OTM would that really matter much if getting in later then sooner??? Tesla did pump $25 last month in a single day
I'm incline to reenter my prior put position 11-23 200p once the bump drive down the cost. If SP goes to the moon hopefully I can recovered some cost the following day. I'm betting along with DI0003, and many others, we'll see 220 or 200 before the bump back to ATH.
Risk and Reward - Get in before earning higher risk higher reward - Get in after earning lower risk lower reward. But if SP goes crazy OTM would that really matter much if getting in later then sooner??? Tesla did pump $25 last month in a single day
I'm incline to reenter my prior put position 11-23 200p once the bump drive down the cost. If SP goes to the moon hopefully I can recovered some cost the following day. I'm betting along with DI0003, and many others, we'll see 220 or 200 before the bump back to ATH.
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I am with you on binary events like ER week. I have learned via losses that staying out for that week is the wise thing to do. If I'm right I'll make some money but if I'm wrong i'll lose a ton of money. Risk reward isn't there.I'm finding it difficult not to open any new positions. I had some 200 strike cc assigned on Friday, leaving me close to 100% cash and sitting on the sideline. I really want to start some new positions today, but my intent is that absent a significant move, I'll be waiting for earnings and then a couple of days after that to get back in. I want to see the earnings, and the initial reaction, before I get back in.
Really, really hard to sit on my hands
Still have -c260/267.50/275 up 10-30% since Friday but hoping to close out half of those at 50+% on any weakness tomorrow. This slowing volume looks bearish to me and I’m kind of surprised we’re still up here at 255.
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