And you guys probably seen the Moody's news on the downgrade to the US credit outlook. I sold puts on Friday and they were doing good
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
And you guys probably seen the Moody's news on the downgrade to the US credit outlook. I sold puts on Friday and they were doing good
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@Max Plaid I have a question re effective strategy when flipping from sold -P LEAPS to sold -C LEAPS and vice versa, when trying to reduce the other by the “gains” of the other at the end of a fall or rise.
For example, I was carrying the following (from fixing some stupid staggered short calls during the June surprise run up):
12x -P300 12/2025 @ $91.73
60x -C500 12/2025 @ $41.38
At recent lows I BTC the 60x -C500 for $17.70 (for $23.68 “gains”) and funded it by selling more of the -P300 which paid more per contract because we were so low. So now I have gotten rid of all the short calls and increased my short puts (I now have 25x -P300 12/2025 and a handful of +C150 12/2025 and +C300 1/2026 LEAPS and my commons/longs)
My plan is if we indeed bottom around here for now, to reverse that trade when we are back up at $240’s (or however high we get) where the puts will lose value on the way up and become cheaper to BTC, and then sell the short calls again to fund buying them back, ultimately ending up with less short calls, and eventually hopefully zero.
My question is do we use the same strike/DTE and just flip puts to calls back and forth at tops and bottoms, or would choosing a closer strike/DTE allow more bang for the buck on the way up/down (or is that dangerous)?
My ultimate goal is to be free of any short LEAPS (puts or /calls).
Thanks in advance
Edit: Alternatively would you just hang onto the 25x -P300 12/2025 (2 years away…)? Is it a fair chance they may expire OTM anyway or the better risk is to carry -C500’s for 12/2025?
For example, I was carrying the following (from fixing some stupid staggered short calls during the June surprise run up):
12x -P300 12/2025 @ $91.73
60x -C500 12/2025 @ $41.38
At recent lows I BTC the 60x -C500 for $17.70 (for $23.68 “gains”) and funded it by selling more of the -P300 which paid more per contract because we were so low. So now I have gotten rid of all the short calls and increased my short puts (I now have 25x -P300 12/2025 and a handful of +C150 12/2025 and +C300 1/2026 LEAPS and my commons/longs)
My plan is if we indeed bottom around here for now, to reverse that trade when we are back up at $240’s (or however high we get) where the puts will lose value on the way up and become cheaper to BTC, and then sell the short calls again to fund buying them back, ultimately ending up with less short calls, and eventually hopefully zero.
My question is do we use the same strike/DTE and just flip puts to calls back and forth at tops and bottoms, or would choosing a closer strike/DTE allow more bang for the buck on the way up/down (or is that dangerous)?
My ultimate goal is to be free of any short LEAPS (puts or /calls).
Thanks in advance
Edit: Alternatively would you just hang onto the 25x -P300 12/2025 (2 years away…)? Is it a fair chance they may expire OTM anyway or the better risk is to carry -C500’s for 12/2025?
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I remember the good old days, when I'd never heard of "macro" never mind CPI, FOMC, 10Y, etc. back then it was just the occasional crisis, Elon tweets, Suez Canal blockage, Evergrande, etc.
Edit: CPI is Tuesday - lots of FEDiots "speaking" again, like this last week
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Well I wouldn't for one moment make the assumption that the -p300's will expire, markets could stay depressed for years yet, there's zero guarantee they recover, we just don't know@Max Plaid I have a question re effective strategy when flipping from sold -P LEAPS to sold -C LEAPS and vice versa, when trying to reduce the other by the “gains” of the other at the end of a fall or rise.
For example, I was carrying the following (from fixing some stupid staggered short calls during the June surprise run up):
12x -P300 12/2025 @ $91.73
60x -C500 12/2025 @ $41.38
At recent lows I BTC the 60x -C500 for $17.70 (for $23.68 “gains”) and funded it by selling more of the -P300 which paid more per contract because we were so low. So now I have gotten rid of all the short calls and increased my short puts (I now have 25x -P300 12/2025 and a handful of +C150 12/2025 and +C300 1/2026 LEAPS and my commons/longs)
My plan is if we indeed bottom around here for now, to reverse that trade when we are back up at $240’s (or however high we get) where the puts will lose value on the way up and become cheaper to BTC, and then sell the short calls again to fund buying them back, ultimately ending up with less short calls, and eventually hopefully zero.
My question is do we use the same strike/DTE and just flip puts to calls back and forth at tops and bottoms, or would choosing a closer strike/DTE allow more bang for the buck on the way up/down (or is that dangerous)?
My ultimate goal is to be free of any short LEAPS (puts or /calls).
Thanks in advance
Edit: Alternatively would you just hang onto the 25x -P300 12/2025 (2 years away…)? Is it a fair chance they may expire OTM anyway or the better risk is to carry -C500’s for 12/2025?
But I think you kinda answered the question yourself with the way you treated the -c500's, which was to buy them back for a good profit - at least within the context of that position in isolation. I would tend to do the same with the puts, wait for a local peak, then buy them back and sell some LEAP calls, or maybe my go-to strategy, write some straddles, for instance those 2025 -p300's are $105 now, they could be flipped to Sep 2024 -300 straddles right now and cut the DTE in half, it puts some calls at risk, but $300 is some way off and plenty of time to roll if it gets close, while the puts can be bought out if that happens
I think there's a big benefit to having shorter DTE, mostly that it brings roll possibilities into play - as it stands, there's not much you can do withDec 2025 -p300's if the SP were to dump down to $100, if you had taken some of the risk out into calls then you can take profits on those and roll the puts out, or roll the lot out too, and probably get a better strike in the process
This is why I'm starting to reposition my Dec 2025 +p270/Sep 2024 -p300 calendar spreads to Dec 2025 +p270/Sep 2024 -270 straddles, if the puts stay ITM, I'll win on the calls, if the calls go ITM, I'll win on the puts, and then I'll just roll the lot for more credit, or open them out to strangles if that works better, etc
Not sure if all that made sense...?
Thanks. That makes sense.
To make sure I got it right, the 9/2024 -300 straddles you mention would look something like this, right?
20x 9/24 -P300 @$91
20x 9/24 -C300 @$17
=$108
My current 25x -P300 12/2025 LEAPS are @ $105 currently, so more or less an even swap.
Did I understand it correctly?
Thanks again.
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Yes!
If you were to wait a bit for some upside then you'd likely get a straddle at a lower strike, or even a strangle, -p290/-c300, something like that
One side will be OTM at expiry, then you can re-write at better strikes
Or the SP moves decisively in line direction long before expiry and you adjust appropriately, like if the SP marched up to 300 you would likely close out the puts and roll the calls up and out, or roll the whole straddle for gains
EVNow
Well-Known Member
You mean one is a short call and the other a short put ?
20x 9/24 -P300 @$91
20x 9/24 -C300 @$17
=$108
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Wow - MOM inflation forecast is 0.1 ! Thats hard to "beat" - so either it will be inline with expectation or higher.
FYI - members have forever edit privileges.
Awhile back I decided I was getting sufficient value from this thread, much less the site, that I looked into site membership. Very affordable, and the primary benefit I get (besides the good karma) is the ability to edit my mistakes like those.
Maybe my membership has lapsed; at least I had it for awhile!
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
My tiny brain is trying to make some senses. Basically looking at the right time to sell contract so you get the best price during a pump or dump so you can setup a stragedy that expire and cancel out any existing contract. So no need to out of pocket later on…..to close them.
Deep…..
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Anyone has any prediction for SP this week.
I think it will take a dive Monday and Tuesday down to near 200 due to Moody and CPI - all Macro driven. Also giving market a breather due to recent 2 weeks breakneck pump. Then Wednesday we started making the pump back to 226.
We ended the week flat where we started or a little higher toward 226. That’s my doggy prediction.
I would be waiting for a pullback if this happen to go long into week of Thanksgiving as I anticipate some pump going into the Cybertruck events.
Not based on TA or anything. Those things should be left to the expert to decodes. But would be good to hear from the team.
I think it will take a dive Monday and Tuesday down to near 200 due to Moody and CPI - all Macro driven. Also giving market a breather due to recent 2 weeks breakneck pump. Then Wednesday we started making the pump back to 226.
We ended the week flat where we started or a little higher toward 226. That’s my doggy prediction.
I would be waiting for a pullback if this happen to go long into week of Thanksgiving as I anticipate some pump going into the Cybertruck events.
Not based on TA or anything. Those things should be left to the expert to decodes. But would be good to hear from the team.
Dan Shapiro's Access a Trader video on Youtube over the weekend shows how TSLA didn't participate in the rally end of last week. QQQ is close to ATH. It will be interesting to see what happens to TSLA if the market pulls back a little.
I started a free Patreon page to post my charts and ideas for the time being. Interestingly, saw the stock hitting 217 before pulling back this morning. It did exactly that although SPY opened RED.
TSLA seems to have found the pullback bottom at 206 on Friday, after completely filling the bull gap created on November 1st. The stock closed above the 0.382 retracement level at 212.62, which is a reliable indication of a reversal from the Purple C leg (224-206). This also means 205.69 has a great chance to be the bottom for a retest of 227 in a week or 2.
The low of 205.68 cannot be violated here. As the 224-206 leg has ended, a violation of 205.68 would mean a new leg down, not a continuation or imminent exhaustion of Purple C wave.
TSLA ran up from 194 to 227 in a clear 5 wave impulse, which means 2 things:
a. The Purple sequence is a consolidation of the preceding rally. It cannot go beyond the 194 low
b. Another leg up is guaranteed, which will targets, at the minimum, the end of Green wave 5 at 227
At the close on Friday, TSLA was still in a bullish consolidation. Going into Monday, it may hit the 216.5 level, which is the 4.618 extension of Blue wave 1, before pulling back. This will also get it close to the 0.618 retracement level of 217.05. This pullback, once gain, cannot breach 205.68 and I don't expect it to.
The low of 205.68 cannot be violated here. As the 224-206 leg has ended, a violation of 205.68 would mean a new leg down, not a continuation or imminent exhaustion of Purple C wave.
TSLA ran up from 194 to 227 in a clear 5 wave impulse, which means 2 things:
a. The Purple sequence is a consolidation of the preceding rally. It cannot go beyond the 194 low
b. Another leg up is guaranteed, which will targets, at the minimum, the end of Green wave 5 at 227
At the close on Friday, TSLA was still in a bullish consolidation. Going into Monday, it may hit the 216.5 level, which is the 4.618 extension of Blue wave 1, before pulling back. This will also get it close to the 0.618 retracement level of 217.05. This pullback, once gain, cannot breach 205.68 and I don't expect it to.
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SpeedyEddy
Active Member
I think we wrongly skipped the arrow down... (I really can not trust this sudden move up, so took a lot of profits (as always a bit too early). So waiting for a cool down, maybe tomorrow after hearing another FED wisdom (ahum)
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