Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Jim Holder]

So $244 rejected for now, lower high from yesterday...yada yada...let's see if it can beat yesterday's HOD.

On pop STO:
10x -C260 12/15 @$1.80
10x -C265 12/15 @$1.15
10x -C270 12/22 @$1.70

Sitting on:
12x -P290 9/20/24 @$68.80 - Planning to BTC on next local top (whether $252, $260, $270, etc.) and flip back to the -C300
10x -C300 9/20/24 @$20.59 - Planning to BTC on next decent low (whether $226, $211, $174, etc.) and flip back to the -P290
15x -C510 1/16/26 @$21.44 - Letting run for now

 

[tivoboy]

It didn't like No Man's Land. Now the bias is back to the upside.
View attachment 997268

Isn’t this chart supposed to be accompanied with either the FACE PALM emoji or that funny one with both hands up in the air facing the sky?

 

[jeewee3000]

I was looking at possible trades/premiums to make some money from this sideways trading, but I've decided against it since much better opportunities will come when SP either breaks down or rallies.

For example: I even thought of 12/15 BPS (say many -225p / +200p @$1.35) or selling close to the money 12/8 calls (-247.5c @1.2) just to get SOMETHING but then my mind went back into risk assessment mode:

- IF sp breaks down, would I be happy with my BPS? How could I get out of these? (answer: you can't unless you buy them back at a huge loss or roll them months into the future)
- IF sp rallies, will sp get far above my strike of 247.5? Answer, very likely yes. And I'll be playing catchup.
- what do I lose from doing nothing now? Very little. The measly premiums I could get otherwise.

TL;DR: I'm staying out (besides my -270c's for 12/15 that I'm still holding) until a better opportunity presents itself. According to my calculations one much better trade can get me a lot more profit than these risky low-return trades during choppy season.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

MA4x maximum convergence looks to have happened yesterday, so now we wait for direction. Maybe jobs report tomorrow (premarket) will lead the way..

 

[BornToFly]

I was looking at possible trades/premiums to make some money from this sideways trading, but I've decided against it since much better opportunities will come when SP either breaks down or rallies.

For example: I even thought of 12/15 BPS (say many -225p / +200p @$1.35) or selling close to the money 12/8 calls (-247.5c @1.2) just to get SOMETHING but then my mind went back into risk assessment mode:

- IF sp breaks down, would I be happy with my BPS? How could I get out of these? (answer: you can't unless you buy them back at a huge loss or roll them months into the future)
- IF sp rallies, will sp get far above my strike of 247.5? Answer, very likely yes. And I'll be playing catchup.
- what do I lose from doing nothing now? Very little. The measly premiums I could get otherwise.

TL;DR: I'm staying out (besides my -270c's for 12/15 that I'm still holding) until a better opportunity presents itself. According to my calculations one much better trade can get me a lot more profit than these risky low-return trades during choppy season.

Agreed. I'm waiting on 200CC contracts. I think we go above the 250s by end of next week.

 

[Jim Holder]

- What do I lose from doing nothing now? Very little. The measly premiums I could get otherwise.

This is crucial to be able to do in trading, admirable

I often remind myself that there are literally 1,000's of trading days yet to come and 1,000's of new trade setups for us to take with more conviction in the coming weeks, months, years. Truly nothing is lost by sitting out a congestion zone and listening to our gut and risk calculator.

 

[Jim Holder]

QTA Update

$245 still massive GEX confluence area. I'm not betting that $250 won't be breeched by close tomorrow but to do that it'll need real force to get over the GEX jam.

12/8

12/15

GEX jam moves to $250 next week

 

[thenewguy1979]

So $244 rejected for now, lower high from yesterday...yada yada...let's see if it can beat yesterday's HOD.

On pop STO:
10x -C260 12/15 @$1.80
10x -C265 12/15 @$1.15
10x -C270 12/22 @$1.70

Sitting on:
12x -P290 9/20/24 @$68.80 - Planning to BTC on next local top (whether $252, $260, $270, etc.) and flip back to the -C300
10x -C300 9/20/24 @$20.59 - Planning to BTC on next decent low (whether $226, $211, $174, etc.) and flip back to the -P290
15x -C510 1/16/26 @$21.44 - Letting run for now

we're back up attempting 244 again.

Doggy got to remind himself all the times - there's infinite kibble out there, no need to rush unless I want a quick trip to doggy heaven

 

[thenewguy1979]

Where's the buyer? Tesla been trailing below SPY...QQQ already pump at $5.

Guess my brother Max Plaid left his wallet at home today.

 

[dl003]

My best guess for this correction/consolidation pattern is a running triangle. As such, I wouldn't be surprised if we go down to 236 again tomorrow before taking off.

The implication of a triangle correction is it precedes only the last wave in a sequence. So, once we've spiked up from here, that'll be it. The best we can hope for is a 5 wave impulse out of this wedge. If we have a 5 wave impulse then there will be no lower low than 194 in 2024. If it's a 3 wave zig zag, then lower low.

 

[BornToFly]

Looks like the news about DOJO lead leaving has dropped the SP.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

That news now being digested, I sold my last tomorrow puts because the mirror of yesterday would be, going north from 12:55

 

[dl003]

I have looked at all the alternative wave counts and I can't find anything bearish for the next 2 months. So I'm leaning more and more toward the bullish camp. May see 270-290.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

MA4x maximum convergence looks to have happened yesterday, so now we wait for direction. Maybe jobs report tomorrow (premarket) will lead the way..

Leaving the green downward channel that you saw a few days ago (and Wicked stocks shows as well) on the upside would of course point direction upward immediately. Tomorrow it would cross the line @ $247.18 or so. To the downside it would be the purple line, but then you are far too late to react. So (not just for the shares we all own) resolving upward would
1. be much faster detected, so I would step in -P +LEAP immediately
2. include jobsdata of tomorrow so less surprises on that side to be expected.

Macro I have to warn y'all that an intrest-rate-cut will imply an immediate downturn, historically (about 9 out of 10 times this happened, with a median of -23% on the S&P). We don't have to expect that the next three months, not even election-wise, but I like to put that note out in case we run. Only (such kind of) Macro could stop the big move from completion.
(BTW pfffew I am really getting bored with all of the micromoves that do not finish normally so you can not day trade with any form of confidence. Or as someone said earlier today: Doing nothing maybe is the best. So I have now cleared all put options for tomorrow, while there was some premium left.
Only bought some OTM calls for next 3 weeks, just to have both sides covered again with OTM options ((puts were already in place)

 

[SpeedyEddy]

I have looked at all the alternative wave counts and I can't find anything bearish for the next 2 months. So I'm leaning more and more toward the bullish camp. May see 270-290.

exactly where under I bought the calls, I just told you about (260, 280 and some stretched 300 for dec 23, that I don't believe in, but want to sell on a quick rise (theta does the rest then)

 

[thenewguy1979]

Wherever we going the stock does take it sweet times to get there.......... got some 245 call expiring tommorow. Kibbles might expired dead if this drag it feet like the past 4 days now.

edit: have more fun seeing LULU bouncing then Tesla SP moving today.

 

[Nocturnal]

Wherever we going the stock does take it sweet times to get there.......... got some 245 call expiring tommorow. Kibbles might expired dead if this drag it feet like the past 4 days now.

With QQQ up 1.4% this is such garbage performance. Where is my 2x beta!

 

[Jim Holder]

@dl003 @tivoboy @Max Plaid

If expecting $270-$290 in the next general sequence, is it better for maximizing chances for more gains to sell puts (i.e. in my case more -P290 9/20/2024, -0.58 delta), or to buy calls (i.e. +C260 1/19/24 0.35 delta), or something else entirely?

(Forgive me if the answer is obvious, I don't yet completely understand the interplay of delta and similar forces between sold puts and bought calls during runs.)

 

[InTheMiddle]

Bought 100x C200 for Jan 5, 2024 and 1k shares on the dip this AM. Let's see how well this ages.

Sold the options for +$3 and change each. Probably leaving $ on the table, but no need to be greedy on the day. Guess I'll keep the shares though.

 

[Jim Holder]

Macro I have to warn y'all that an intrest-rate-cut will imply an immediate downturn, historically (about 9 out of 10 times this happened, with a median of -23% on the S&P).

Isn’t the narrative that lower interest rates = more Tesla car sales=better margins for Tesla=TSLA stays stronger than any macro market weakness?