Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[SpeedyEddy]

What a doji on the weekly we’ve got..(meaning possible turningpoint, so no clear course yet.)
MA4X divergence run is slowing down of course, but still above starting point (+3 days), so intact for the run to 295 or higher in 2,5 months. I really hope for a small drop next week, not only because of the few -C left, but because statistically a negative grinch (Christmas minus and plus 3 trading-days) is followed by a net positive january and Year on the SPY. So apart from rolling -C237.50 (I only rolled the $3 loss into -C257.5) I end the week positive.
On the bump today I closed -P210 form march at $2 profit. -C255 and all those above expiring worthless.
for next week I have got only -C
257.5
262.5
277.5
280
beyond next week: nothing!
Wholesome Christmas and a Happy New Year!

 

[Yoona]

12/22 0DTE 68% Probability of Market Maker Move = 250.6-258.4 based on last night's options premiums @ 66.4% IV.

today's Close = 252.54, pre-market guess is

today's High = 258.22, guess is within 18 CENTS

after 5 weeks of green, finally red (seems like healthy pullback and not too far from Monday Open)

the bad news is: 65-Min is once again at the sticky 61% ATH fib, but fell outside the ascending wedge; not to worry, we have 240.80 Order Block support

the good news is: 1/19 +c250 $6M

 

[DaBooster]

Is Christmas a holiday in China?

No, there is no Christmas holiday in China

 

[tivoboy]

What a doji on the weekly we’ve got..(meaning possible turningpoint, so no clear course yet.)
MA4X divergence run is slowing down of course, but still above starting point (+3 days), so intact for the run to 295 or higher in 2,5 months. I really hope for a small drop next week, not only because of the few -C left, but because statistically a negative grinch (Christmas minus and plus 3 trading-days) is followed by a net positive january and Year on the SPY. So apart from rolling -C237.50 (I only rolled the $3 loss into -C257.5) I end the week positive.
On the bump today I closed -P210 form march at $2 profit. -C255 and all those above expiring worthless.
for next week I have got only -C
257.5
262.5
277.5
280
beyond next week: nothing!
Wholesome Christmas and a Happy New Year!

Be the HOUSE!

 

[bopdit00]

Hope you all had a great money week. Merry Christmas everyone! See you Tuesday.

 

[BornToFly]

today's Close = 252.54, pre-market guess is

today's High = 258.22, guess is within 18 CENTS

after 5 weeks of green, finally red (seems like healthy pullback and not too far from Monday Open)
View attachment 1002227

the bad news is: 65-Min is once again at the sticky 61% ATH fib, but fell outside the ascending wedge; not to worry, we have 240.80 Order Block support
View attachment 1002226

the good news is: 1/19 +c250 $6M
View attachment 1002214

Based on today's close, what is your IC for next week?

 

[thenewguy1979]

@BornToFly If you're closing CC's, Algo showing one more dump coming back toward 251 FWIW:

View attachment 1002209

I’m letting mine ride. Will decide Tuesday what to do with them.

It did indeed dump to 252. So far it's pretty accurate. Another great tool in our Arsenal. Just don't be so dependence on it and go gung ho on day trading. That need to be tested hundreds of time by someone with a big wallet - looking at you Max

Based on today closing - flat full circle to last Friday closing - I'm using the similar ICs as this week. Except more risk mitigation learned from Yoona and team here.

a. set strike points farther OTM. Acknowledged .20 is not the same as .07 but that much lower then .50 for the -255P sold earlier this week.
b. spread out from 5 to 20 points on each sides (easier to roll as needed and faster decay to 50% profit)

Add 1 contract at a times.....

It's been a exciting week for sure. Meeting new friends and the continual pursuits of learning to be a better (smarter) dog. Thanks a bunch guys.

Have a Merry Christmas! Signing off for real this time.

 

[Max Plaid]

Hey gang, happy holidays to you all from Max, Nori and Wilma. We road trip to Denmark tomorrow in the Plaid, see y'all Tuesday

 

[mickle]

Tried to come up with some stats for my trading this week, out of BPS and BCS spreads only:

Risked about 12% of entire account value (max loss of spreads)
Profit/Risk about 1%/wk, 52%/yr
Profit/Total Account value 0.13%/wk, 6.8%/yr

Nice money made, but I'd really like to get return higher, maybe double.
Maybe go up to risk of 15-20% of account, move spreads a bit closer to the money, open more BPS to match BCS risks (IC).

 

[Yoona]

Based on today's close, what is your IC for next week?

 

[tivoboy]

View attachment 1002275

Ok, now you’re just hedging.

 

[Yoona]

Ok, now you’re just hedging.

no, really DOTM IC works and it's backtested

0 DTE Credit Spreads & Iron Condors in SPX Options - Tammy Chambless

Presentation slides PDF can be downloaded here:https://wealthenjoy.com/webinar/tammy-chambless-2020-08-13/Updates by Tammy:25 Jul'21: https://youtu.be/cqnL6-...

www.youtube.com

 

[tivoboy]

no, really DOTM IC works and it's backtested

0 DTE Credit Spreads & Iron Condors in SPX Options - Tammy Chambless

Presentation slides PDF can be downloaded here:https://wealthenjoy.com/webinar/tammy-chambless-2020-08-13/Updates by Tammy:25 Jul'21: https://youtu.be/cqnL6-...

www.youtube.com

I don’t doubt it, but a 20% IC range is pretty solidly easy and confident… will certainly make $$, and high %% or times which is, what rule #1-5 ish, but I like to make $$$ with %, and make 2x overall. YOU/we are pretty good at getting UP to the tips of our skis without getting out OVER our skis..objective is to optimIze without undermining.

 

[Yoona]

I don’t doubt it, but a 20% IC range is pretty solidly easy and confident… will certainly make $$, and high %% or times which is, what rule #1-5 ish, but I like to make $$$ with %, and make 2x overall. YOU/we are pretty good at getting UP to the tips of our skis without getting out OVER our skis..objective is to optimIze without undermining.

note that my IC prediction is only 10.62% OTM; history says it's probably not enough

it looks stupid now but that's because we are range-bound the last 9 weeks

 

[BornToFly]

I don’t doubt it, but a 20% IC range is pretty solidly easy and confident… will certainly make $$, and high %% or times which is, what rule #1-5 ish, but I like to make $$$ with %, and make 2x overall. YOU/we are pretty good at getting UP to the tips of our skis without getting out OVER our skis..objective is to optimIze without undermining.

Well, you can be more aggressive and then deal with ITM spreads and managing like Max Plaid does frequently. But some of us prefer the lower stomach acid approach that Yoona follows, and she has done a lot of research to figure out how far OTM is good enough most of the time. Since I don't have her research, I have to go even farther OTM than she does. I am excited to learn more from her again.

 

[Yoona]

Well, you can be more aggressive and then deal with ITM spreads and managing like Max Plaid does frequently. But some of us prefer the lower stomach acid approach that Yoona follows, and she has done a lot of research to figure out how far OTM is good enough most of the time. Since I don't have her research, I have to go even farther OTM than she does. I am excited to learn more from her again.

it's almost ready, my most mind-boggling study ever, the Mother Of All Charts

if my OTM bet goes ITM, and i roll for the same strike (ie -c250 to -c250), how many weeks before it goes OTM? we know this is the best roll, because of large ATM credit; but will it even expire? how long before the sp reverses?

if i roll for 5-strike improvement (ie -c250 to -c255), how many weeks before it goes OTM?

so i decide to roll for 10-strike improvement (ie -c250 to -c260), is my chance of going OTM better than 5-strike? we know this is probably net debit, so should i do 5-strike or 10-strike?

is rolling puts better than rolling calls based on history? which is better in just taking the loss and forget about rolling?

backtested 703 weeks!

 

[adiggs]

it's almost ready, my most mind-boggling study ever, the Mother Of All Charts

if my OTM bet goes ITM, and i roll for the same strike (ie -c250 to -c250), how many weeks before it goes OTM? we know this is the best roll, because of large ATM credit; but will it even expire? how long before the sp reverses?

if i roll for 5-strike improvement (ie -c250 to -c255), how many weeks before it goes OTM?

so i decide to roll for 10-strike improvement (ie -c250 to -c260), is my chance of going OTM better than 5-strike? we know this is probably net debit, so should i do 5-strike or 10-strike?

is rolling puts better than rolling calls based on history? which is better in just taking the loss and forget about rolling?

backtested 703 weeks!

Do you roll at expiration, or at touch? That's another good question that will help with management.

 

[Yoona]

Do you roll at expiration, or at touch? That's another good question that will help with management.

i am a coward, so i roll at touch

almost always i regret it, coz the sp reverses majority of the time

 

[MikeC]

it's almost ready, my most mind-boggling study ever, the Mother Of All Charts

if my OTM bet goes ITM, and i roll for the same strike (ie -c250 to -c250), how many weeks before it goes OTM? we know this is the best roll, because of large ATM credit; but will it even expire? how long before the sp reverses?

if i roll for 5-strike improvement (ie -c250 to -c255), how many weeks before it goes OTM?

so i decide to roll for 10-strike improvement (ie -c250 to -c260), is my chance of going OTM better than 5-strike? we know this is probably net debit, so should i do 5-strike or 10-strike?

is rolling puts better than rolling calls based on history? which is better in just taking the loss and forget about rolling?

backtested 703 weeks!

I'm very interested to see what you've found. My current "strategy" is to roll ITM calls week to week for both income and downside protection. I try to take max strike improvement as long as I still net a credit because I don't want to get too DITM and end up with tiny roll credits.

FWIW, this week my 90x 240CC netted me ~$7500 cash in roll credits ($83/contract). Could have been maybe twice that but I also took a total strike improvement of $125 over the 90 contracts. That works out to $1.40/share so ended up raising my strike average from 240 -> 241.40, while the stock itself dropped from 256 -> 253.

 

[wooter]

I don’t doubt it, but a 20% IC range is pretty solidly easy and confident… will certainly make $$, and high %% or times which is, what rule #1-5 ish, but I like to make $$$ with %, and make 2x overall. YOU/we are pretty good at getting UP to the tips of our skis without getting out OVER our skis..objective is to optimIze without undermining.

You're playing with options. Higher rewards, higher risk, higher losses.

Like Yoona says we've been going sideways for weeks now., so it's "easy" and that also makes the premiums go down for anything safely OTM. So you creep in closer to ATM, and then something stupid happens (Elon leaves Tesla, some renting company orders 100K of Tesla's) and the stock price goes berserk and those ATM positions are now deep underwater.

Yoona had a good post a few days ago:

Wiki - Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

Cathie, better not trim her positions for next 2 weeks atleast ;) ;) (saw a new headline saying she had recently added to her positions ...)

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