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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
EVNow
Well-Known Member
It tells me only fools are buying / selling options now
Seriously - we may see some movement tomorrow / Monday on premiums. People tend to buy on last day for P&D (probably waiting for Troy and other forecasters last numbers). Even for ER, IV shoots up on last day.
ps :
Looks like that last bearish cross over happened when we hit the 100 low point
Good point re IV boost. I’ll save some contracts to write for Monday vs more tomorrow.It tells me only fools are buying / selling options now
Seriously - we may see some movement tomorrow / Monday on premiums. People tend to buy on last day for P&D (probably waiting for Troy and other forecasters last numbers). Even for ER, IV shoots up on last day.
Theres also my camp who dont look at earnings at all and just trade the chart.
Essentially expectation of low volatility. Too low to go dramatically lower, too high to go dramatically higher. Unclear what catalysts might change either.
To me, I am slightly more bullish on TSLA right now. The CT is doing well, Tesla is advertising, Tesla has mind share, Elon isn't making headlines over stupid sh!t he says, it is clear that Tesla has better prospects than Ford, GM, or Toyota in the medium-term. ...but I know all it takes to change is a single tweet...
$DJT has crazy high IV for the moment following IPO, I'm eyeing up a calendar diagonal jan 2025 +p50 @$36 / April 5th -p65 @$12
Yes, the IV on the LEAPS is pretty crazy, but the weeklies it's higher, and unlikely to settle down too soon... I would expect the SP to drop hard once Donald dumps stock to pay his legal bills, plus the links to the US elections likely to keep the stock volatile
Yes, the IV on the LEAPS is pretty crazy, but the weeklies it's higher, and unlikely to settle down too soon... I would expect the SP to drop hard once Donald dumps stock to pay his legal bills, plus the links to the US elections likely to keep the stock volatile
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Not to get into politics, but I would recommend staying the hell away from that one on either side. It is something that can be manipulated with a token amount of money since there are so few tradable shares. It is like a meme stock where the company has complete control of 80% of the equation, and the remainder has to really want to cause pain more than make money.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
On top of that its largest shareholder has significant financial reason to ask the board, which is comprised of those exceedingly friendly to him, to waive his 6 month share lock in, allowing for a dump to come at any time.... so yeah regardless of politics wouldn't touch that company with a 45 foot pole.
He is paying legal fees out of his donor's money. Fines/settlements are different, but he can stall that for at least 10 months. Since the NY appeals court gave him a reprieve on the appeal bond he doesn't need that nuclear option.
Safer to stay away from anything with those initials.
bmd00
Member
What's amazing is that the chart often shows us how the stock will move on earnings. In a sense, the chart is the crystal ball.
Morgan Stanley reduces its Q1 Non-GAAP diluted EPS projection to $0.24 from $0.29, while keeping the FY'24 EPS forecast unchanged at $1.51.
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No, just no.
Mod, pls purge everything from 05:07 AM till now, other than possibly the new lowering of EPS guidance on TSLA.
I'm still in wait-n-see mode. From the 15m to the 2h timeframe, RSI has registered new overbought highs across the board. I can't short this until it attempts another spike and fails. There's a chance it just going to crash from here but slim. If the spike happens today or Monday and fails, I'll take the short but if not, I guess I'll just roll the dice on P&D. Bull/bear pivot is now 166.
bmd00
Member
TSLA has a long history of rallying for 4 days before consolidating and retracing. Sometimes it's 3 days other times it's 5, but 4 is the most common. The point isn't to expect the 4th day to be a top before a retracement. This is just another pattern that SP respects and can be used to help trade.
Here's a look at the 2nd half of 2023. Near the 4th day of each wave, you'll usually start to see some inclinations of resistance. This resistance is more obvious in the lower time frames.
Looking at the most recent rally, beginning 3/15, we can see SP retraced on 3/21 and reversed on 3/22 with SP opening at its low and rallying throughout the day. That was day 1. The shooting star formed on Tuesday, day 3, was the top of this wave. Now we're in consolidation and retracement.
SP now needs a strong reversal day and a clear support level to start its next move higher. If this comes today or Monday, expect a jump on Tuesday next week. If SP consolidates but doesn't show strong support and a reversal day before P&D we'll likely fall, at least at the open, on Tuesday. If SP falls through 172 on Monday or Tuesday, which I'm not expecting but also not ruling out, SP is likely headed lower than 160.
Here's a look at the 2nd half of 2023. Near the 4th day of each wave, you'll usually start to see some inclinations of resistance. This resistance is more obvious in the lower time frames.
Looking at the most recent rally, beginning 3/15, we can see SP retraced on 3/21 and reversed on 3/22 with SP opening at its low and rallying throughout the day. That was day 1. The shooting star formed on Tuesday, day 3, was the top of this wave. Now we're in consolidation and retracement.
SP now needs a strong reversal day and a clear support level to start its next move higher. If this comes today or Monday, expect a jump on Tuesday next week. If SP consolidates but doesn't show strong support and a reversal day before P&D we'll likely fall, at least at the open, on Tuesday. If SP falls through 172 on Monday or Tuesday, which I'm not expecting but also not ruling out, SP is likely headed lower than 160.
bmd00
Member
Here's just 1 example. SP showed us before Q3 2023 earnings that it was going to fall on earnings.
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