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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
If they change the goal posts for reporting, most likely only to boost numbers - IMO that looks a bit more than desperate and IMO would be another sell signal. Don’t get me wrong, if anything is going to save them this year it’s going to be Energy. With ACTUAL P&D just holding serve (my wife would be so proud!) has become consensus and I don’t really see that gaining momentum sadly this YEAR. I guess I should say, without E going down to ~ $1.5 for 2024
BTC 2x SMCI -p1000 @$1.9 -> STO 4/5 @$32.1
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Time to close those -900P for NVDA as well....
I would say NVDA/SMCI has "helped" us with the downtimes with TSLA lately.
Well this was my thinking, buy LEAP +p to cover the downside, sell weeklies against them at crazy IV to recuperate the costs in a few weeks, then you're left with some +puts for free to let run or sell against with zero risk
I'd never write naked against that, I like to make some edgy trades, but I'm not crazy!
I have to disagree with you there. (Don't get me wrong though, I think giving those numbers is bad policy.) It could be a sell signal, it could be a neutral signal to add transparency for analysts, or it could be a positive signal showing strength of the second leg.
As a policy though, you are essentially giving out half the earnings report... just unaudited and not final.
NVDA has been a bit challenging, but SMCI is bringing consistent beer money every week...
Not liking -c197.50 for next week, but did try selling 4/28 -c200 at open for $5.1, needed an ope ing pop to $181 for that to happen... still liking that strike so put a sell order in now for $4.20 -> this needs to be on Max Pain $177.50 to trigger
A bit of a gamble given the pending P&D + earnings? Who knows, but I have a lot of long calls to roll out against if necessary
EVNow
Well-Known Member
I learned the hard way to stay out (nearly) of binary events. Maybe handful of contracts open on P&D/financial reporting week. The lure of gambling is a thing too.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
I've not done this in a while. Might be worth exploring ... sell monthlies with the idea of buying back after a decent profit.
Ofcourse with P&D and ER probably not now - since IV will continue to increase.
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
I also reduced the usual # of Longs going into PD and ER. Mainly keeping a few -C and a couple cheap Put Spread for next week. Closed out all my Short for ER during the other days Pump. Learned my lessons.
The biggest one was Sell More buy Less. Also closed at 50% profit as much as possible.
Very interesting. Maybe the plan is to pull TSLA after P&D numbers and then run it up. It makes no sense to be betting on the bullish side but I guess it doesn't matter what retail thinks. I'm struggling to see how the numbers can be anywhere close to a surprise.
Got a good price on the 04/05 170$ puts to hedge my portfolio and I plan to keep them through P&D. Also have 04/12 -200C.
edit:
I mean if this is why the guy thinks 180-220 next week
100% I can see we move up to 200-220 for "no reason." Just as in the past we moved to 260+ for not much of a reason. We also moved down to 190s Nov 2023 for not much reason. Short term its all a game.Bold prediction
“Next week 180-220 isIMO. You do your DD. Check passive buyers lot of them.
"MM removed all call side OI's they are building on put side. They will sell these and take tape on reverse direction.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
So, we shouldn't be surprised if they do. The numbers could impact the stock - but I doubt it.
We are a bi-polar group. Everyone was buying Puts because P&D bad and SP going to Zero (because Energy ramping, CT ramping, massive new FSD software, and Gen 2 mean nothing), but selling 197.5CC for next week for 0.5 is too risky....
this week ~ 60K PUT wall at 170, next week 44K PUT wall at 172Very interesting. Maybe the plan is to pull TSLA after P&D numbers and then run it up. It makes no sense to be betting on the bullish side but I guess it doesn't matter what retail thinks. I'm struggling to see how the numbers can be anywhere close to a surprise.
Got a good price on the 04/05 170$ puts to hedge my portfolio and I plan to keep them through P&D. Also have 04/12 -200C.
edit:
I mean if this is why the guy thinks 180-220 next week
not sure if P&D will let it run up, but maybe MM will not let it run down ...
This Q is a big reset for Tesla, new baseline on expectations ...
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