Makes you wonder why he's driving for Uber, unless he works for Citadel and that's just a cover story
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
Makes you wonder why he's driving for Uber, unless he works for Citadel and that's just a cover story
@Yoona I may have asked this before but I don't remember the reply. Have you found that -GEX walls (or high OI Put strikes), while bearish, are "protected" by MM from breech (as best they can) so they don't have to pay out and hence can act as a form of "support" for the market above it — in our case repel away when approaching $170 next week from above (see below). Similar to how tall +GEX walls repel down when moving toward it from below.
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thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Yoona like to work for UPS. Its a fad thingMakes you wonder why he's driving for Uber, unless he works for Citadel and that's just a cover story
Call are cheap, especially as we go beyond 200. So a few buck cheap plays can make thing interesting.
There have always been rumors of about ppl who have setup PFOF for various companies setting up man in the middle attacks (why isn’t it ever a woman?), not to hijack but just to send a copy of the data somewhere ELSE other than just to the buyer of the PFOF information. It would certainly be HIGHLY valuable.Makes you wonder why he's driving for Uber, unless he works for Citadel and that's just a cover story
If i had that for A DAY, I’d be out.
-gex attracts, -vex repels
+gex repels, +vex attracts
but if gex is tall, it becomes magnet
that's greeks
OI walls are different - sp doesn't magnet or gravitate into an OI wall
the exception is when we are approaching 0dte where tall gamma wall = tall OI wall
if sp is below but near a tall gamma wall, especially those with high OI, it will magnet into it going up (dealers buy shares)
if sp is above but near a tall gamma wall, especially those with high OI, it will magnet into it going down (dealers sell shares)
if sp has an unusually large momentum (ie EM selling, hertz), all walls fall, including OI; we've seen that many, many times where sp sliced through all greek/oi walls like hot knife on butter (as recently as the friday nvda crash); during times like that no TA supp/res is safe at all
from my limited experience, MM will protect an OI call wall more than an OI put wall; @Max Plaid has more experience than me on this
4/5 majority of market participants (gamma) are placing bets on 172.5, dealers (vanna) are preferring 160-185 range and skewed towards puts
last 11 minutes today are all puts (size >= $100k)
The only things that could move the SP prior to or at earnings are announcement of a new gigafactory (like India), date announcement for next gen reveal or FSD licencing with a major OEM. Other than that, we'll see lower SP. Maybe I'm missing something, but I'm playing it safe as I think the India announcement is way crazy overdue.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Anyone who talks about "MMs" driving the market is a conspiracy theorist and usually won't make much moneyMakes you wonder why he's driving for Uber, unless he works for Citadel and that's just a cover story
ps : You could say the same thing about people who give advice on YT. If they are good (and thus successful), why would they need to do it ?
Here’s how I split the difference:
A) The data observed from option flow is empirical and can be useful.
B) Ascribing the various flows to certain people or groups is a sideshow and unnecessary.
When they come together I pay attention to “A” and ignore “B.”
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In support of what you’ve explained, I just got a nugget from a friend of a friend of a friend who works in the HF industry:
“Consider that tall 4/5 $170 -GEX bar as a massive zone of interest that should act as support. However, support can break, and in this case if it does then I would expect a lot of aggressive selling pressure. Never assume MMs care what will happen with price or where price will go, they don't really care especially on an individual stock as they have excellent balancing mechanisms for nearly all eventualities.
“Also, note this week was the end of the quarter. The options landscape for the next few weeks will likely to look pretty different starting next Monday once the options chain does its soft-reset.”
Oh I wasn't looking to sell that strike
I was looking to buy, and paying 1/2 of the potential gain, that gain being dependent on the inevitable bankruptcy in the next year, is not enough potential gain for the risk. I'll keep an eye out.I hadn't thought about selling puts against the put - that's good thinking - maybe I'll revisit
P&D contains production and delivery units information. That's all.
The more I read this guy's Tweets, the more he just comes across as a good old-fashioned stock pumperVery interesting. Maybe the plan is to pull TSLA after P&D numbers and then run it up. It makes no sense to be betting on the bullish side but I guess it doesn't matter what retail thinks. I'm struggling to see how the numbers can be anywhere close to a surprise.
Got a good price on the 04/05 170$ puts to hedge my portfolio and I plan to keep them through P&D. Also have 04/12 -200C.
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I mean if this is why the guy thinks 180-220 next week
I didn't like -c197.50 for next week, not because of risk, but I was looking to lock in higher premium before the SP dumps, so imagine you sell for 50c next week, SP drops to 160's after P&D, then you win the 50c, great, but then you need to write in the 180's the week after to get another 50c/$1, and as the SP drops those trades carry more and more risk, so better to write for more $$$ at a higher strike with a longer expiry
Well it all was for nothing as the SP never got back to 177.50, TSLA looking super-weak yesterday on low volume
bmd00
Member
My number 1 rule for trading TSLA is to focus on the bigger picture. Even if TSLA goes to 188, 200, or even 220 in the following weeks, anyone who thinks we have seen the bottom is smoking crack. We are in a solid downtrend. This is obvious after we broke the red trendline in Oct and retested it and resistance in Nov and Dec.
Has the downtrend reversed? Not likely. We have yet to see a major reversal in the trend. We need a crescendo of bearish price action, heavy volume, and a sudden reversal. Look for increasing volume near the end of this downtrend and a significant weekly and daily reversal candle.
If we somehow head straight up from here without these things occurring and break above the long-term downtrend leading back to Nov 4th, 2021, then and only then can I assume the downtrend has broken. I see this as a chance but less than 1%.
I
Has the downtrend reversed? Not likely. We have yet to see a major reversal in the trend. We need a crescendo of bearish price action, heavy volume, and a sudden reversal. Look for increasing volume near the end of this downtrend and a significant weekly and daily reversal candle.
If we somehow head straight up from here without these things occurring and break above the long-term downtrend leading back to Nov 4th, 2021, then and only then can I assume the downtrend has broken. I see this as a chance but less than 1%.
I
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This. I wrote some for 5/17 200-205 range which gives more premium plus time to maneuver if things go the wrong way.
Anecdata, finally got FSD v12 pushed to one of my vehicles this morning with 12.3.2.1. Take it from someone who's been very skeptical of FSD in the past: it's pretty damn good. Good enough that it will discourage me from selling any more long-dated leap CCs.
Agreed. Even if we are to take off META style it will not happen until earnings.
Same. I’ve had 12.3.2.1 for a couple of days now and overall it is very confident and has solved some of my major problems. It still hesitates for stop signs and very cautious in parking lots but that’s not necessarily a negative. Step change from V11 for sure.
It is making me bullish enough that I might start deploying my cash if TSLA drops from here and keep catching falling knives until I run out of cash. My guess is we bottom out between P&D and ER.
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