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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

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#44,041
Tesla just announced that they have produced their 6,000,000th car. They announced 5,000,000 in mid-September. That means that production this quarter is around 500k. Edit: Brain fart. I was thinking October instead of September.

Something isn't adding up. I might close my CCs for Friday on Monday!

Edit 2: Sawyer had a brain fart too. That is 1,000,000 in 6.5 months, not 5.5

https://twitter.com/x/status/1773776344200945921
 
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#44,045
StarFoxisDown! said:
Keep in mind, PCE data, which is the Fed's preferred data input, came in good today.

That in itself, could cause a macro green day on Monday.
Click to expand...
I would put todays data more in the “par” category… some in line, some hot, some .01 lower..I think the overall consumer consumption .08% was quite a bit higher than expected. While some might see a happy consumer, willing to spend (with most reporting that the economy is poor, SOMEWHERE ELSE, but not with them directly - that’s an actual stat) some might see a consumer still grappling with higher costs. It’s pretty hard to extrapolate from retail sales data this upward consumption number.

with the general upward bias of the overall market, we could certainly green monday. As I’ve said over the past 2-3 weeks, I’m selling calls for May/June in most high flyers that are ATH at this point, having sold ~ 75K of a 200K target I have a bit more to do, quickly.

I think we could still see higher inflation prints for MAR/Apr for various reasons, mostly energy pricing going into the spring/summer driving season. I see no reason that WTI won’t make it to $90 before any pull back. I don’t see a much higher test or duration. But, that number will make it into Mar inflation data more than it did for the February data.

For TSLA, I’m still certainly willing to sell $195 calls for May if we can break $11.5 for them, but not the paltry ~ $6 they pulled back to. I still see $200 as a hard ceiling for the foreseeable future. Free 30 day FSDb tests aren’t going to move that needle much in my opinion.
 
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#44,050
Jim Holder said:
I think the D (delivery) is a LOT more pertinent than the P (production) for Q1.
Click to expand...
P&D is an interesting event because, at least for me, it encapsulates one of the core ideas that I've had to come to grips with.

As a long term buy and hold shareholder I don't care about the D - it's all about the P for me. As long as I believe that Tesla is supply constrained (and I still do today), then its all about production. (Sidebar - my own view of supply constraint shifting over to demand constraint is when we believe that Tesla has more like 2+ months of inventory; at least 1 month of inventory).

BUT as a short(er) term option trader I don't care about the P (not really) - its all about the D. It's all about the D because in the short term / options trades, I'm not trading the company - not really. I'm trading on what and how I think that the market and trading community will react to whatever the company has to say, and it's pretty clear to me that traders and the people that invest on the financials care about the D. Therefore I care about the D, and what I believe that the rest of the market expects the D to be, and how that will translate into the financials, and ultimately how the traders will react to how the D actually translates into the financials.


It gets kind of convoluted. The key difference that has gotten me into trouble a few times, is making short term / options trading decisions with my long term buy and hold hat on. I can and do use input from that long term buy and hold hat, but I try really hard to use its input, and not let it make the decisions for trades that belong in this thread.
 
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#44,051
BornToFly said:
Troy estimates less than 4,000 total deliveries next quarter (and they may already be approaching 1,000/week now)
Click to expand...

There is a discussion of it here. There may be some parts missing - so the production is piling up and CTs are not being sent out for delivery. You have to see outbound rather than staging lot, anyway.


It is still taking over 80 days on average from config to delivery. Not seeing any improvements there.


1711761062173.png
 
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#44,052
EVNow said:
There is a discussion of it here. There may be some parts missing - so the production is piling up and CTs are not being sent out for delivery. You have to see outbound rather than staging lot, anyway.


It is still taking over 80 days on average from config to delivery. Not seeing any improvements there.


View attachment 1033495
Click to expand...
Well you'll know if the car have sat there for more than 3 days if they are covered with dust. Construction fields like this are just extremely dirty sites. We knew Lucids were having trouble moving their cars because we saw dust piling up. That was when we knew they didn't suddenly have a production breakthrough.

Also Musk wouldn't have agreed that CT are ramping nicely if these were incomplete trucks.
 
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#44,053
Singuy said:
Well you'll know if the car have sat there for more than 3 days if they are covered with dust. Construction fields like this are just extremely dirty sites. We knew Lucids were having trouble moving their cars because we saw dust piling up. That was when we knew they didn't suddenly have a production breakthrough.

Also Musk wouldn't have agreed that CT are ramping nicely if these were incomplete trucks.
Click to expand...
Also apparently Giga Texas employees just love going out on a daily/hourly basis and moving Cybertrucks randomly around to new spots just to trick everyone into thinking they're prouducing a lot :rolleyes:

Based on Joe's videos, we see the trucks moving. Hardly ever is there trucks just sitting there for multiple days
 
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#44,054
StarFoxisDown! said:
Also apparently Giga Texas employees just love going out on a daily/hourly basis and moving Cybertrucks randomly around to new spots just to trick everyone into thinking they're prouducing a lot :rolleyes:

Based on Joe's videos, we see the trucks moving. Hardly ever is there trucks just sitting there for multiple days
Click to expand...
Haha even though I sold massive amounts of calls, I am still not gonna start tslaqing this thread.
 
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#44,055
EVNow said:
It is still taking over 80 days on average from config to delivery. Not seeing any improvements there.
Click to expand...
The data averages to 80, but that may not be a good representation of what's happening. I'm on day 102 since config. There were at least two rounds of ordering in December, and those are all aging while other people likely not contributing to that data set are getting theirs.
 
#44,056
adiggs said:
As a long term buy and hold shareholder I don't care about the D - it's all about the P for me. As long as I believe that Tesla is supply constrained (and I still do today), then its all about production. (Sidebar - my own view of supply constraint shifting over to demand constraint is when we believe that Tesla has more like 2+ months of inventory; at least 1 month of inventory).
Click to expand...

This is I think a slightly non-traditional view of supply?

For years Tesla was producing as fast as physically possible given factories and lines--- and inventory was sometimes as little as a couple days...

Then they were still ramping production fast as they could and it got up to around 15 days, still probably supply constrained given shipping times?

Now they've been actively holding back expansion of production (delaying mexico, never adding a third shift to Berlin, not running weekends some places), and lately even cutting it.... (Shanghai down to 5 days from 6.5)-- They could easily HAVE more supply if they had demand for it-- but they don't. So they're choosing to not run extra hours and shifts so as to not pile up more inventory.... is that still 'supply constrained'?
 
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#44,057
StarFoxisDown! said:
Also apparently Giga Texas employees just love going out on a daily/hourly basis and moving Cybertrucks randomly around to new spots just to trick everyone into thinking they're prouducing a lot :rolleyes:

Based on Joe's videos, we see the trucks moving. Hardly ever is there trucks just sitting there for multiple days
Click to expand...
I'm not so sure anymore. The VIN tracking website shows that almost everyone who ordered at the end of December, and is registered on the site, is still waiting for their VIN. It is making me think that they are all waiting for a part, or Tesla is intentionally waiting for April 1st to ship for accounting/Q1 EPS reasons (I don't know enough about accounting to know if waiting until Q2 to have lots of deliveries helps).

Cybertruck Order and Delivery Statistics

Edit: Exploring the website more it does appear that there are 84 people with VINs awaiting delivery. So maybe all those trucks in Joe's latest video have been assigned to customers?
 
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