To be honest, I see the data but don't know if/how to trade on it. Do any of you use option flow to inform trades (selling/buying calls/puts) and how?
Calls still growing:
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
To be honest, I see the data but don't know if/how to trade on it. Do any of you use option flow to inform trades (selling/buying calls/puts) and how?
Calls still growing:
very high probability of ~150 next week
gammas can't predict direction, they only assist once sp gets there
but there's a lot of call buying rn
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Putting it out there for feedbacks. Going to recalibrate as we end the week. Thanks Teacher
This 0.01% scenario continued to be elusive and the stock is doing what has been expected of it. It may have broken 160, but all that did, at least at the moment, was push it further along the bottoming process UNTIL it crashes, if it crashes. If it doesn't crash, a stock getting to the last stage of bottoming should scare shorts a bit.
Adam Jonas: "Amidst bearish institutional investor sentiment, we reiterate our OW rating on Tesla with a $310 price target. Our thesis on Tesla is that it is both an auto stock + an energy, AI/robotics company. In fact, our valuation of the core auto business ($62/share) represents just 20% of our $310 price target. Negative developments in the global EV market very much matter to Tesla and should reasonably have a negative near-term impact on the price of the stock. At the same time, however, we believe investors should not ignore the continued developments of Tesla’s other plays, many of which are auto-related (i.e. the recurring revenue opportunity from the Tesla fleet – embedded in our Tesla Network Services valuation) and other areas that we do not include within our $310 target but that the market may include (i.e. Optimus) which we expect to learn much more about during the 2024 Tesla AI day (date TBD)."
Yes, it’s in the SEC filing itself. You can find a link to the full filing a little further up, but here is the relevant paragraph. This is the way the world works… outcomes in situations like this are pre-determined.
Stockholders Want to Speak for Themselves. The Special Committee noted that Tesla stockholders’ views about their Company are important. Their views on Mr. Musk’s compensation, motivation, and retention are especially important because — as the Company’s public disclosures have said for years — the Company is “highly dependent on the services of Elon Musk.” As a result, the Company’s relationship with Mr. Musk is a key focus of the Board’s stockholder engagement program.
Since the Tornetta Opinion — a case brought by a plaintiff who then held nine shares of the Company’s common stock — many stockholders have strongly expressed support for Mr. Musk’s compensation. The Special Committee noted that dozens of institutional stockholders have, unprompted, told the Company’s Investor Relations team that they disagree with Tornetta’s invalidation of the 2018 CEO Performance Award. Seven institutional stockholders — including four of the top 10 — felt strongly enough to seek a meeting with the Board Chair and raise the issue. One of those top 10 investors, T. Rowe Price, sent a follow up letter to the Board Chair reiterating its support for a new stockholder vote, excerpts of which are included in the Special Committee Report.
The Special Committee noted that this issue has also galvanized many retail stockholders. More than 6,000 individuals claiming to be stockholders owning more than 23 million total shares — equivalent to the 11th largest institutional stockholder — sent unsolicited letters and emails to the Board or to the Tornetta court supporting the reinstatement of Mr. Musk’s equity compensation.
The Special Committee found this stockholder feedback powerful and persuasive. In its judgment, this alone justifies holding a ratification vote so that stockholders can determine whether Musk’s compensation plan is fair and in their best interests.
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
My MSTR P1140 has almost ran ITM, so what will Bitcoin do from now on? Looks like defense is gone and it will get oversold real soon. 50.000 would be a nice entry point to buy some MSTR OTM calls for a month out or so.
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Could this be the same scenario with the PD week. We all bet it crash and then it just traded sideway?
I have not added any Put Spread and was just contemplating selling out of the money call @170C or above to be safe.
Any changes to your positioning for ER week?
The irony (and awful luck) is that the week of Tesla’s pivotal Earnings Report may be the week the markets in general implode, adding downward pressure.
Unless one believes that just as TSLA didn’t rally with the ATH market=it won’t crash with them either
Unless one believes that just as TSLA didn’t rally with the ATH market=it won’t crash with them either
I can see this happening. Closed most short call and long puts but looking to reload on a rally to 160+ by end of week.
Because huge walls like that don't tend to be breached, doesn't mean it won't happen, which is why I sold $10 lower at 140, some wiggle-room, should be able to roll those down a bit, in any case, my +p150's will be +200% at 140, could be the moment to sell anyway, who knows!
In the meantime I'll make some wonga - don't forget I wrote -c150's yesterday too, so would be a bit win from those if it went sub-150
Before P&D, the sentiment was not as bearish as it is now. I myself chose to stay on the sideline due to a misread. After P&D was when everybody got super duper bearish to a huge surprise to the upside. That bearish sentiment has not changed in the last 2 weeks so I'd not call them 2 scenarios. It is still the same scenario playing out. Considering how big the "bull trap" (or was it a short squeeze? did anyone get bullish?) was ($19 from 161 to 179) vs how small the break was ($8 from 161 to 153), there is a cause for caution if you're short. Sure the stock still has more room to drop and even crash, but at the moment I don't see it yet.
I don't have any position for ER week, nor do I intend to.
EDIT: I guess you can call the June -220Cs I sold yesterday my ER play. Already up 20% in 24 hours despite the sideway SP.
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I think we might getting a peak in through the window about what Wall St is valuing Tesla's autonomy/vision...which if that is indeed the case, it's a valuation based on far out earnings and growth and thus I would expect TSLA to detach from macro's and be more driven by FSD progress over the next couple of months until Aug 8th.The irony (and awful luck) is that the week of Tesla’s pivotal Earnings Report may be the week the markets in general implode, adding downward pressure.
Unless one believes that just as TSLA didn’t rally with the ATH market=it won’t crash with them either
It's entirely in Tesla's court....keep releasing builds that show material progress each couple of weeks or a big update per month with meaningful progress and the autonomy bullish narrative can hold the valuation while the auto sector suffers. But if they hit a wall in progress I expect sentiment to change drastically.
I mentioned I few days back, but I would love to see how TSLA would be holding up right now if V12 had not been released yet. Odds are we would be breaking through 140 at least right now and tapping on 125's door going into earnings.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
On a side note - do institutional investors who own stock because of ETFs vote ? I can understand them voting when they have the stock in managed mutual funds.
Not sure because it depends where the stock goes. I’d want downside protection heading into the weekend, maybe CCs NTM and long puts with strikes $10 below the SP for 4/26. I’d close them out before the ER if they were to go green enough.
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
This may marked the 4th consecutive red weeks for NVDA.
@Yoona - this aligned with the charts showing 850 to 900 closing this week?
@Yoona - this aligned with the charts showing 850 to 900 closing this week?
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