Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[tivoboy]

that's really bullish, in sync with this guy's analysis last night

(starts at 9:39)

The data/info is the data info, but I’m not really buying his interpretation, but that’s just me. Just because there are a ton of calls that MM are willing to sell at ZERO premium, i mean these are cheap as .. calls.. FOR FRIDAY. It’s too much to explain entirely, but it reads to me more that MM are willing to take anything from call buyers who hope more than ANYTHING that the stock will go back up.. At this point the stock would have to rally 12-15% over the next three trading days for any of them to be in the money and stock having to be transferred.

To me, it only reads more like bag holders end up holding the bag - again. Just like ~ 90+% of the time for option buyers.

One thing for sure, It’ll be fun to watch play out.

 

[Jim Holder]

Another $100M in calls added, so odd given the current price action:


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and another $200M added in calls (was $447M a few minutes ago)

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@Yoona Is this tradable data, meaning how would you take advantage of this knowledge?
For one, of course it may be a tip off to be careful with NTM/ITM CC's
But it's not easy to spend money on calls when stock is so weak down here.

 

[Max Plaid]

BTC 2x SMCI 4/19 -p900 net +$26.2
STO 100x TSLA 4/26 -p140 @$2.3 -> was after $3.1 yesterday, but this will do, I expect the -p150 wall to hold next week

 

[Yoona]

@Yoona Is this tradable data, meaning how would you take advantage of this knowledge?
For one, of course it's a tip off to be careful with NTM/ITM CC's
But it's not easy to spend money on calls when stock is so weak down here.

they are useful to know, but i don't trade based on prems or moving averages

mostly i use gamma/OI/fibs/channels, then hide behind the walls

 

[Blue horseshoe]

@Yoona Is this tradable data, meaning how would you take advantage of this knowledge?
For one, of course it may be a tip off to be careful with NTM/ITM CC's
But it's not easy to spend money on calls when stock is so weak down here.

At the very least it may be a very good time to implement the stock repair strategy yoona mentioned in a previous post.

 

[Jim Holder]

I expect the -p150 wall to hold next week

Wow. What are you seeing that lead you to that expectation?

 

[Jim Holder]

they are useful to know, but i don't trade based on prems or moving averages

mostly i use gamma/OI/fibs/channels, then hide behind the walls

Thanks, makes sense. Based on the gamma/OI/fibs/channels what's your guesstimate for how next week/two will go?
(and are you putting on any positions?)

 

[Yoona]

just found out you can have multiple tickers in one page

i have 4 monitors yet seems to always run out of space

 

[Yoona]

Thanks, makes sense. Based on the gamma/OI/fibs/channels what's your guesstimate for how next week/two will go?
(and are you putting on any positions?)

i have a boatload of nvda/smci, just closed tsla -c180 (too early again) and nothing next week

 

[elasalle]

People betting on an India announcement to bounce the stock?

Buying before vote ...

I closed my NVDA positions and bought back shares - almost 100 shares gained, so total loss on CC OPM shares is now just 500
Will start selling CC's against and keep buying shares ... will keep shares upto the vote
+ bought 24 more shares with $$ from May 200 CC's against the new shares

 

[Jim Holder]

i have a boatload of nvda/smci, just closed tsla -c180 (too early again) and nothing next week

Thanks. What's your guesstimate for how next week/two will go for TSLA, based on the gamma/OI/fibs/channels?

 

[Jim Holder]

Credit: Paolodamus

 

[Yoona]

Thanks. What's your guesstimate for how next week/two will go for TSLA, based on the gamma/OI/fibs/channels?

if we repeat the last 4 quarters, next week is red whether 7dte or 4dte

Wed to Fri is also red

one day after earnings = red

high probability of green 1-2 weeks after earnings:

 

[MikeC]

Is it a coincidence that Elon has been "more engaged" these last few weeks now that his pay package is back on the table? I'm wondering if he's looking to pump a bit between now and June.

 

[mongo]

if we repeat the last 4 quarters, next week is red whether 7dte or 4dte

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Wed to Fri is also red
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one day after earnings = red
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high probability of green 1-2 weeks after earnings:

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This is Friday of earning week (after 10% drop) to 1 or 2 weeks out from there?

 

[Yoona]

This is Friday of earning week (after 10% drop) to 1 or 2 weeks out from there?

pls check the chart titles or dates

for ex,
chart1 will be this friday april 19 to next friday apr 26 (7dte)
chart2 will be next week april 22-26 (4dte)
etc

 

[Jim Holder]

Someone bought 30,000 +C105 12/18/2026
(OI is 11, vol is 30,000)

 

[tivoboy]

My plan for next week wrapping around those walls.

IMO it either goes down or trade sideway after ER.


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That doesn’t seem to be anywhere near your normal learned pattern.. BET FIVE to possibly MAKE ONE?

 

[Jim Holder]

if we repeat the last 4 quarters, next week is red whether 7dte or 4dte

View attachment 1039324

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Wed to Fri is also red
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one day after earnings = red
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high probability of green 1-2 weeks after earnings:

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Thanks. You've shared a lot already so I hate to ask, but can you summarize in words what you're seeing for the next two weeks for TSLA levels-wise? It's difficult for me to parse this data from the probability charts.

 

[mongo]

pls check the chart titles or dates

for ex,
chart1 will be this friday april 19 to next friday apr 26 (7dte)
chart2 will be next week april 22-26 (4dte)
etc

Titles didn't help, X-axis does though, my bad in not zooming in.
To answer my own question yes, one or two weeks from the Friday of earnings week (post earnings drop).