Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Jim Holder]

EW update:

There are 3 Fibonacci projections that point to $135 in the near term. It would take a move back above $160 and then $180 to begin to shift the momentum back to the bulls instead. A strike of the $135 area followed by a rebound would seem to cement further the potential Red path and perhaps even target $200 in a corrective bounce for 4.

 

[Yoona]

What is your feeling re what's next for TSLA, bounce or lots more pain?

no one can predict, but we have TA to help analyze

 

[Jim Holder]

 

[Jim Holder]

no one can predict, but we have TA to help analyze

When you get a chance can you pls share your TA analysis opinion?

 

[Yoona]

When you get a chance can you pls share your TA analysis opinion?

i could be wrong, but there is high probability of drop post-earnings

 

[Jim Holder]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1780955750174695488

 

[Jim Holder]

 

[Jim Holder]

i could be wrong, but there is high probability of drop post-earnings

How deep (estimate)?

 

[Yoona]

Institutions Triggering Breakouts​ One pattern that I have seen happen across many stocks right now is institutions triggering breakouts as exit liquidity. It is clear from the action over the past few days that stocks are being sold off by institutions. In order to do this they are using retail traders’ pattern recognition against them. Here’s what I mean:​ ​ See how on my cursor they triggered NVDA to close over previous resistance to lure retail into buying and then they dumped the stock and brought it down to lows of the day? This is happening time and time again - not falling victim to this will save you a lot of money in the current environment. ​ You can see it here on the SMCI daily chart as well. You got a day of straight buying, and then they trigger you with a higher high, only to bring the stock back down. You can see it very clearly on the 5m chart: ​

bull traps!

📈 Institutions are Triggering This...

Understanding this is critical.

arete753.substack.com

 

[Jim Holder]

 

[thenewguy1979]

i could be wrong, but there is high probability of drop post-earnings

Based on the news and the ball to to the wall comment from the top guy on RT/FSD sure seem like it.

 

[thenewguy1979]

Institutions Triggering Breakouts​ One pattern that I have seen happen across many stocks right now is institutions triggering breakouts as exit liquidity. It is clear from the action over the past few days that stocks are being sold off by institutions. In order to do this they are using retail traders’ pattern recognition against them. Here’s what I mean:​ ​ See how on my cursor they triggered NVDA to close over previous resistance to lure retail into buying and then they dumped the stock and brought it down to lows of the day? This is happening time and time again - not falling victim to this will save you a lot of money in the current environment. ​ You can see it here on the SMCI daily chart as well. You got a day of straight buying, and then they trigger you with a higher high, only to bring the stock back down. You can see it very clearly on the 5m chart: ​

bull traps!

📈 Institutions are Triggering This...

Understanding this is critical.

arete753.substack.com

offload all my Long during the pump.

Same bull traps for days now. On many of the tech stock and SPY/QQQ as well.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

I'm still sitting on 20 spreads +p150/-p140 for 4/26, which are now plus 100%. That could go to 400% if we close under 140 next week. But it could also become -100% if we close above 150. I'll probably close them earlier, at least part of them, as I don't want to be dependent on what happens on earnings day. But when? Maybe if we close the gap around 144. Decisions, decisions.

 

[Yoona]

I'm still sitting on 20 spreads +p150/-p140 for 4/26, which are now plus 100%. That could go to 400% if we close under 140 next week. But it could also become -100% if we close above 150. I'll probably close them earlier, at least part of them, as I don't want to be dependent on what happens on earnings day. But when? Maybe if we close the gap around 144. Decisions, decisions.

 

[BornToFly]

Why is it that gap UPs need to be filled, but we can gap DOWN day after day?

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

View attachment 1039615

So true!

But I do have these spreads to cover some of the losses of my shares (on top of the written calls, which are losing value). I would hate to sell the spreads and then see it drop a lot more. I think I will wait a bit more as I have not seen capitulation yet. It has been a gradual decline and it doesn't feel like the bottom is in yet.

 

[BornToFly]

Now down over 39% in 2024.

 

[Jim Holder]

Last three weeks of May look like a roller-coaster. Even -GEX at $120's showed up for 5/17

 

[Yoona]

Last three weeks of May look like a roller-coaster. Even -GEX at $120's showed up for 5/17


View attachment 1039618

yes, 120s possible:

i would normally call this out as st*pid and irresponsible, but judging from recent Q4 history there may be a point; -22% drop from here is ~125.

we just had 2nd-worst P&D to Earnings range, and 4 consecutive red quarters from P&D
View attachment 1028011

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Why is it that gap UPs need to be filled, but we can gap DOWN day after day?

Because what was once up must come down and eventually what must come down must go up .

For the 146 gap fill to finally fill, it will have taken a year. Could be another year before todays gap gets fill going back up