Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Jim Holder]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1783587904306196879

 

[Yoona]

Day 3?....

TSLA After Earnings - Day 3

 

[Jim Holder]

WS update:

This run can stall out @ $177-$180 and rotate back down. If it breaks $170.69 then it can continue south to $160.51, $151.05, and even $138.35 again.
Needs a close above $177-$180 to open up bullish contination.

 

[dl003]

Thank you.

From your experience, how has TSLA handled the 50-day in the past, and should we be concerned for it to turn into a launchpad like it does for other stocks?

SMA/EMA, no matter 10,20,34,50,69,100 or 420, by themselves are not a reliable metric to predict reversal. You need influence from other factors like fib level, price action, wave count, etc... to lend credibility to these lines and vice versa.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Options are so crazy. I have a 4/26 +170p position that was worth about $95k last Friday close. It stands to expire worthless tomorrow.

 

[Jim Holder]

SMA/EMA, no matter 10,20,34,50,69,100 or 420, by themselves are not a reliable metric to predict reversal. You need influence from other factors like fib level, price action, wave count, etc... to lend credibility to these lines and vice versa.

Good to hear. I often hear when a stock takes back the 50-day, stay out of the way, including indexes.

 

[BornToFly]

TSLA After Earnings - Day 3
View attachment 1041699

Thanks, but I was asking a more specific question. If the first two days are green (which will greatly reduce the number of occurrences), how often is the 3rd day also green. When I scroll through the chart, after a gap up like we had, I could not find 3 green candles in a row....

The problem in this case is that we were WAY oversold.


Example:

 

[ProfessorZoom]

Putting the BAG in Baglino again

 

[thenewguy1979]

This is probably the 10th time I've posted this, but

Once we've broken out of the daily trend resistance, the trend flips to bullish but overwhelming chance it will go back and retest the breakout level at 163.5. One out of 3 things will happen:

It will go down a bit further than 163.5, but eventually will turn up to make new highs
It will tap 163.5 then skyrocket, like it did on January 25th and May 24th of 2023
It will keep going down until it breaks the newly established daily trend support around 138

So if your goal is to rescue your CCs, pay very close attention to this level. As some of you know, as a trader I pay zero respect to the fundamentals. I only go off the probability of a setup playing out in the past and apply it to the current setup. So if you think Tesla is doomed and this is just a dead cat, just keep your CCs open until TSLA goes down to 80 or 100.

But if I was stuck with DITM CCs, I will have to make the difficult decision at 163.5 to cut them all or risk getting left behind. Your choice.
View attachment 1041689

Thanks dl003 - if it indeed skyrocket how high could we anticipate the bounce before pullback?

 

[Patrick66]

Question 185 - 190 . expiration would be?

You want to ladder them out, so spread expirations over time (and strike). Break up your contracts into different lots of about 20% each, and never buy more than one lot in a 2-hour window. Sell the safest call first-- say a $190 for 5/3, and see where things go. You are trying to recover slowly as you gain a better feel for what is going on.

 

[dl003]

Thanks dl003 - if it indeed skyrocket how high could we anticipate the bounce before pullback?

trying to predict this with a hard ceiling is the definition of standing in front of a train. Once the stock is confirmed to be uptrending, best thing to do is buy at pull back and ride it. Get out when momentum stalls through RSI & MACD divergence.

I said repeatedly that this week exp & 165+ only because 165+ would give enough wiggle room if it bounces hard. Look how many people still got stuck below 165. 165 was a good number as price action has shown post ER. Got 2 good dips below 160 from 165 but eventually it gave cuz the stock was too oversold. So nothing is 100%.

 

[juanmedina]

I have a confession to make.... I am getting fomo .

 

[thenewguy1979]

I have a confession to make.... I am getting fomo .

Careful there.....at least confessed to what post(s) got you aroused........

 

[Yoona]

Thanks, but I was asking a more specific question. If the first two days are green (which will greatly reduce the number of occurrences), how often is the 3rd day also green. When I scroll through the chart, after a gap up like we had, I could not find 3 green candles in a row....

The problem in this case is that we were WAY oversold.


Example:

View attachment 1041714

2 consecutive green days are rare, only 12 out of all 52 earnings

of those 12 earnings, 50-50 chance of green the 3rd day

 

[Jim Holder]

Future guy seeing apparently heavy
inflows (I dunno what’s average and what’s notable):

https://twitter.com/x/status/1783636073882788245

 

[dl003]

Future guy seeing apparently heavy
inflows (I dunno what’s average and what’s notable):

https://twitter.com/x/status/1783636073882788245

to be fair, the last time he said "data does not lie", we crashed instead of going to 220.

 

[Jim Holder]

to be fair, the last time he said "data does not lie", we crashed instead of going to 220.

Maybe this time he’s right?

 

[Quesder]

This is really weird, AH TSLA goes up all the way till the end of session, while the main actors of today, MSFT and GOOGLE, have some cool down.

 

[tivoboy]

Options are so crazy. I have a 4/26 +170p position that was worth about $95k last Friday close. It stands to expire worthless tomorrow.

I’m looking at my watch right now and - tomorrow ain’t over yet

 

[Yoona]

Future guy seeing apparently heavy
inflows (I dunno what’s average and what’s notable):

https://twitter.com/x/status/1783636073882788245

i muted him, he is too noisy