thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Per dl003 168.8 should be where we bounce back up but have to hold for 4 hourly candles.
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
Closed out all my weekly short calls 170-175 and some 167.50, which were from doubling the number of -c155 and -c160 contracts that got run over after the ER. Still holding some 162.50-167.50 that I should probably roll to next week.
Also have short puts 172.50 and 180 that I flipped from those calls and a few 5/31 -c170 that I rolled out. Should have doubled those contracts, too, instead of flipping and rolling.
Also have short puts 172.50 and 180 that I flipped from those calls and a few 5/31 -c170 that I rolled out. Should have doubled those contracts, too, instead of flipping and rolling.
NVDA gamma is bullish but vanna is not
if gamma doesn't follow, high chance of drop next week
but OpEx next week, so all bets are off
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Thanks Yoona. I closed my 965C for a small profit this morning seeing the up and down mood swing.
The idea is to minimalize overnight carryover risk. Say you're 2 days into your weekly cycle and now 8k is on the line. If something comes out in the AH, you only have 8k to fix instead of 20k. It's not all rainbow, though. If there's a significant local top being made that warrants 100% and you only go 20% in, your income will of course suffer as a result. So, this is much more like smoothing out the waves, rather than a cheat code. However, there is some merits in controlling volatility.
where the drop should stop. But bouncing back up, to 185? I don't know, yet. The 2H is not cheap, yet, but it's getting there at a decent pace.
Today, after we bounced from 170 to 172.7, I contemplated selling 185 CCs for next week, because the 4.618 extension lied at 182. However, the next leg down was too swift so I waited to see if it'd break 170 or not. If not, then I'd wait until it spikes up again, as selling near the low of a potential wave 2 is a dumb move.
It did break 170, and so I waited till 168.8 to sell some puts, betting on 168.8 holding. Going to cut it if 4 consecutive hourly candles close below 168.8
After it bounced from 167.9 to 169.3 and pulled back decently, I drew fibs and sold 180CC exp next week, as the 4.618x extension lied at 175.
The idea is a full move rarely exceeds 4.618x of the first leg. If it goes the full 4.618x or even 5.618x and then pulls back, close my CCs after the pullback has gone retraced at least 40% of the move.
If it only goes to 1.618 - 2.618x, then some watching is warranted once it starts pulling back.
It did break 170, and so I waited till 168.8 to sell some puts, betting on 168.8 holding. Going to cut it if 4 consecutive hourly candles close below 168.8
After it bounced from 167.9 to 169.3 and pulled back decently, I drew fibs and sold 180CC exp next week, as the 4.618x extension lied at 175.
The idea is a full move rarely exceeds 4.618x of the first leg. If it goes the full 4.618x or even 5.618x and then pulls back, close my CCs after the pullback has gone retraced at least 40% of the move.
If it only goes to 1.618 - 2.618x, then some watching is warranted once it starts pulling back.
I wonder how the market will prepare for the June 13 vote drama just 4 weeks away.
Is the vote mainly optics or has real implications?
Because if it’s a significant moment for Tesla—as Morgan Stanley says—we could be trading sideways/down until then and we should discuss how to hedge for both eventualities.
IV will likely climb and it can be like another ER event.
What are your thoughts and plans trading-wise leading into the event?
Is the vote mainly optics or has real implications?
Because if it’s a significant moment for Tesla—as Morgan Stanley says—we could be trading sideways/down until then and we should discuss how to hedge for both eventualities.
IV will likely climb and it can be like another ER event.
What are your thoughts and plans trading-wise leading into the event?
My take is that the market assumes the measures will pass and stabilize the path forward for Tesla. Personally I am into more chaos theory; I think that something needs to not go Elon's way in the vote (Kimbal/Murdoch, Deleware, or Comp) to light enough of a fire that some of the corporate governance issues are resolved. If that means Elon takes his ball and goes home then I am screwed... but the death by a thousand cuts has to stop.
dc_h
Active Member
I hate selling puts. I just rolled P170 to next week. I could have bought it back this morning, but figured it was safe. I have a harder time staying rational and rolled when we with 168, but should have waited until after 2 and all extrensic value is gone and we likely circle back and close within pennys of 170.
TSLA comparisons with other M7, gave back all its gains from the pop. Back to April 26...
Next few weeks are quite mixed 160-190.
June 21 is heavily biased down, but it may be too early to be useful.
June 21 is heavily biased down, but it may be too early to be useful.
I think we are in a precarious position because 1. TSLA seems broken technically trading below 50 SMA and not showing any signs of bounce for the past 4 hours. 2. Macros seems to heading into major resistance.
The uncertainty of the vote will make things worse for the stock. We will also start getting a better idea of Q2 P&D by mid june. Maybe I'm too negative but like they say market does not like uncertainty. I'm really struggling to find any positive catalysts. Elon can keep saying the next version is mind blowing but until the market sees data to show how that is helping earnings I'm afraid the market is going to not believe you.
I'm hedging with 160$ puts and selling far OTM calls for July. That 8/8 event better be a good one with specifics.
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
I note that most of the EV stocks have a similar profile as TSLA today, seems that rumours of Biden slapping a 100% import-duty on CN manufactured cars has spooked the auto markets
Add to that Tesla's general state of chaos and the nut-cases in Berlin, and here we are
Nasty. Once again...
Add to that Tesla's general state of chaos and the nut-cases in Berlin, and here we are
Nasty. Once again...
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