Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Jim Holder]

So this is how it works:

1) Write hit piece and save for Friday PM

2) Buy Puts/Sell ATM calls at Friday's HOD/POP

3) Release hit piece

4) Sell puts at LOD

5) Crawl back under the rock

Look at the time the piece was published: 1:21 PM
Now look at the time the red bar began (below)

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Guys, this is getting really tiresome. This not the place to discuss FSD. And if it were, there isn’t anything that hasn’t been said already. This isn’t just me, several other people have asked to take the discussion where it belongs and they are also being ignored. I’d hate to give members a time-out.

 

[ProfessorZoom]

Jim you are cooking

 

[ProfessorZoom]

holy

 

[BornToFly]

I rolled my 160CC for today to end of May. Could only get up to 170 with a small credit. I have a feeling those are going to need to be dealt with.

My 155CCs ($5 Premium received) I let go, and I sold (right before the close) -170P for next week for $5. Will need to make up $5 at some point as I try to get those shares back.

I closed the 167.5 and 172.5CCs this morning on the dip for Break Even. I could have made a small profit by holding until the end, but I would have needed to hold through a big loss at SP 172, and I didn't know the FUD article was going to be published to manipulate the SP. I need better "friends."

 

[Jim Holder]

 

[dl003]

I rolled my 160CC for today to end of May. Could only get up to 170 with a small credit. I have a feeling those are going to need to be dealt with.

My 155CCs ($5 Premium received) I let go, and I sold (right before the close) -170P for next week for $5. Will need to make up $5 at some point as I try to get those shares back.

I closed the 167.5 and 172.5CCs this morning on the dip for Break Even. I could have made a small profit by holding until the end, but I would have needed to hold through a big loss at SP 172, and I didn't know the FUD article was going to be published to manipulate the SP. I need better "friends."

Yes, the hit piece was unexpected, but I called the top before the top was in and it played out exactly the same way I said. Perhaps more faith?

Future guy seeing apparently heavy
inflows (I dunno what’s average and what’s notable):

https://twitter.com/x/status/1783636073882788245

Ok. Let's go back to this.

This guy presents 2 different kinds of "data". 1 is order (stock) flow and the other is option flow.

His order flow is just chicken and egg. Of course after a 6% green day there is going to be huge inflow on the tape. Who would have thought? And we're supposed to take it as some sort of "data"?

His interpretation of option flow is ok. Not accurate, but the way he uses it as if it was 100% accurate is reasonable. However, note that I told you option flow in TSLA was really bullish on Wednesday morning right after ER, not Thursday evening. If you really read my msg and took it seriously, you would have been more vigilant in buying the dips. Unlike him saying we moon every other day, my flow read is accurate and in real time.

I hope many people took advantage of the sub 160 price this morning to roll their stuff out. The flow is real. The more people trying to call the top or a bull trap here, the more it's going to squeeze. Note that we've not been in a daily uptrend since January 8th. If we close above 163.5 today it will be a certain change of short term characteristic. I'd not want to stand in front of that train until the smoke clears.

Now, where are those price cuts when you need them?

Now, even when option flow is really bullish, it doesn't always translate to real bullish price action. In this case, off of a low, option flow is going to be bullish because people / algos previously dumping calls are now rushing to buy them back - those are the early birds. We should be more like them but we lack the mechanical execution and data that they have to act this promptly. Bullish option flow off of a low should be expected. It creates a mini gamma squeeze. However, it can be met with real stock selling by other participants who didn't find this reversal as legit. At first the selling will be overwhelmed by the covering but at some point the covering is going to sputter out. Like this morning, predicted by me yesterday.

So, the earlier you catch this bullish option flow, the better. If you catch it too late, like this guy did, what awaits you may just be very expensive call premiums that usually spell the end of a gamma squeeze. If we get bullish option flow at the end of this next pull back, then better stay out of its way.

Seriously, who on Twitter or Youtube predicted a top this morning?

 

[kabin]

So this is how it works:

1) Write hit piece and save for Friday PM

2) Buy Puts/Sell ATM calls at Friday's HOD/POP

3) Release hit piece

4) Sell puts at LOD

5) Crawl back under the rock

Look at the time the piece was published: 1:21 PM
Now look at the time the red bar began (below)

View attachment 1042107


View attachment 1042108

Maybe people are wanting to drop TSLA delta risk over the weekend? That story broke early this morning.

 

[Jim Holder]

Yes, the hit piece was unexpected, but I called the top before the top was in and it played out exactly the same way I said. Perhaps more faith?

Ok. Let's go back to this.

This guy presents 2 different kinds of "data". 1 is order (stock) flow and the other is option flow.

His order flow is just chicken and egg. Of course after a 6% green day there is going to be huge inflow on the tape. Who would have thought? And we're supposed to take it as some sort of "data"?

His interpretation of option flow is ok. Not accurate, but the way he uses it as if it was 100% accurate is reasonable. However, note that I told you option flow in TSLA was really bullish on Wednesday morning right after ER, not Thursday evening. If you really read my msg and took it seriously, you would have been more vigilant in buying the dips.

Now, even when option flow is really bullish, it doesn't always translate to real bullish price action. In this case, off of a low, option flow is going to be bullish because people / algos previously dumping calls are now rushing to buy them back - those are the early birds. We should be more like them but we lack the mechanical execution and data that they have to act this promptly. Bullish option flow off of a low should be expected. It creates a mini gamma squeeze. However, it can be met with real stock selling by other participants who didn't find this reversal as legit. At first the selling will be overwhelmed by the covering but at some point the covering is going to sputter out. Like this morning, predicted by me yesterday.

So, the earlier you catch this bullish option flow, the better. If you catch it too late, like this guy did, what awaits you may just be very expensive call premiums that usually spell the end of a gamma squeeze. If we get bullish option flow at the end of this next pull back, then better stay out of its way.

Seriously, who on Twitter or Youtube predicted a top this morning?

Good work and good summary! You have an uncanny eye.

The disappearing puts and increasing calls for the next few weeks in May made it a bit difficult to trust the fade and sell into it aggressively.

Are we short biased into next week, or it may test $177-$180 and THEN we should short/sell calls aggressively. Perhaps like -C190 5/17?

 

[dl003]

Good work and good summary! You have an uncanny eye.

The disappearing puts and increasing calls for the next few weeks in May made it a bit difficult to trust the fade and sell into it aggressively.

Are we short biased into next week, or it may test $177-$180 and THEN we should short/sell calls aggressively. Perhaps like -C190 5/17?

remember before ER and puts were piling up and everybody got scared out of their mind? And then what happened?

Now that we bounced huge, puts disappeared and calls back in the flow, we are supposed to be perma bulls right? Have we learned nothing? Stock price and option flow have a symbiotic relationship. Where 1 go, the other follows. Looking at high put OIs while the stock is bottoming out is NOT a trading strategy. You are basically going against one of the most basic wisdoms: dont enter a crowded trade. Predict what stock is going to do tomorrow and flow will magically conform.

I sold naked June 200Cs this morning.

 

[Jim Holder]

I sold naked June 200Cs this morning.

And you didn’t tell us

Hopefully we get a chance at Monday open — the usual pop a few dollars and fade rest of the day.

Any +P setups you like?

 

[Discoducky]

Guys, this is getting really tiresome. This not the place to discuss FSD. And if it were, there isn’t anything that hasn’t been said already. This isn’t just me, several other people have asked to take the discussion where it belongs and they are also being ignored. I’d hate to give members a time-out.

I have 50x options open currently. Many CCs went >40% profitable when the FSD FUD went out. I didn't take a profit as I was surprised and am now waiting for next week for >70%. IMO, discussion of this is extremely material. I'm on day 12 of NO disengagements. And if I may, "SH$t is gettin' real with FSD". For folks that don't know, I used to manage the AP team at Tesla.

 

[Jim Holder]

For folks that don't know, I used to manage the AP team at Tesla.

I didn’t know that, cool! Were you there before or after MobileEye. I am curious about the real reason why Tesla and ME parted ways.

 

[DaBooster]

BCS
5-13
25x -c180/+c210
1.77

Bought back for .85 for the 50% win

 

[Yoona]

bleeding has stopped (tsla is up since P&D)

TSLA Earnings Week 7DTE

TSLA Earnings Week 4DTE

TSLA Earnings Day Close to Friday Close

TSLA Stock Price - Last Closing Before P&D Release to Earnings Week Friday Close

 

[dl003]

And you didn’t tell us

Hopefully we get a chance at Monday open — the usual pop a few dollars and fade rest of the day.

Any +P setups you like?

I mean, I told you:

Its going to pop and pull back before it popped
what to look for to confirm the top
what to do on confirmation

 

[Yoona]

tsla is bearish today on the strikes that matter (more puts than calls)

 

[Jim Holder]

I mean, I told you:

Its going to pop and pull back before it popped
what to look for to confirm the top
what to do on confirmation

All good

I meant letting us know about a safe spot to park some CCs.

I was thrown off by the 2nd go at 172 during the day and the bullish option flow.

Think we’ll get another chance early next week, and then tank at Wednesday FOMC?

Any put spreads you like?

TY

 

[bmd00]

@bmd00 - what say you?

Trading is like a game of poker with no blinds or antes. It's like a poker game where you can fold every hand until you're dealt a monster. But rather than it taking a few minutes or a couple of hours to be dealt a playable hand in poker, it can take months in the stock market.

In trading, Mr. Market is the dealer and he's dealing you a new hand every day, whether you like it or not. He's dealing you a new hand every second, every minute, every hour, every day, every week. It's like a small poker game inside a bigger poker game inside an even bigger poker game. You are playing every game at the same time, only you get to choose which table you bet on.

If you've played poker I'm sure you know the kind of players that like to announce to the rest of the table when they folded an awful hand, like 2/7, and the flop comes 2,2,7. In this example, we would probably all think we shouldn't have folded after seeing the flop.

The same is true of the trading. But unlike poker, you never really fold your hand in the stock market. You can place a bet after you've been dealt more cards (after the stock has shown you more information). And now you should better understand your odds, in which case you can increase your bet size and leverage up. Even if you only capture a percentage of the larger move you can make a ton of money with low risk.

I will celebrate tsla's phenomenal week with all bulls who correctly traded this jump, but I'm waiting for more cards to be dealt.

 

[EVNow]

So this is how it works:

1) Write hit piece and save for Friday PM

I don't see how this is a "hit piece". The NHTSA report isn't glowing and has serious downside potential for Tesla.

Believe it or not, non-business press simply doesn't care about trading time or option expiring day etc.

This analysis, conducted before Recall 23V838, indicated that drivers involved in the crashes were not
sufficiently engaged in the driving task and that the warnings provided by Autopilot when Autosteer
was engaged did not adequately ensure that drivers maintained their attention on the driving task.
The drivers were involved in crashes while using Autopilot despite fulfilling Tesla’s pre-recall driver
engagement monitoring criteria. Crashes with no or late evasive action attempted by the driver were
found across all Tesla hardware versions and crash circumstances.