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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

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Limp...

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Feels like you’re letting negative bias cloud some data.

China is 15% ahead of Q1 and that’s before the 0% or $0 down incentive started.

Model Y US inventory has dropped dramatically since the .9% was announced and I’d venture to say it will remain low for June.

Model 3 refresh is finally ramping up this quarter (was told by sales manager and there were many 3’s being delivered when I was there) and Cybertruck will be much higher than Q1.

I actually had a chance to talk to a sales manager when I took my wife in to test drive the Y before we placed the .9% order and got some details on how Tesla is doing this. They have 5 banks that they’re working with and they essentially play the banks off of each other to get the lowest rate per individual and their credit score and then cover the difference. Most of the time the rate they’re getting from the bank is in the 3-5% area and then Tesla is covering the difference. Tesla is using their cash balance to cover the difference, not using the method of putting cost of the difference in cogs. So I expect margins to actually rebound materially and even though Tesla’s free cash flow will be impacted, it’s offset by Tesla burning down their inventory buildup from Q1.

Overall I think Q2 numbers both in P/D and in earnings will be much better than people expect
Europe numbers not looking great - we'll know better in a couple of weeks when May numbers start coming in... don't forget we got a big price cut on M3Y in Norway this last week which has not been reported in the mainstream media, I expect other European countries to follow

I have no negative bias, I'm a long term Tesla bull, but I had an epiphany and am now able to see things a bit clearer than before

And I have a LOT of LEAPS, much more favourable for me if the SP pop hard than drops hard, just trying to keep things real
 
I have been on this board for a couple years and have found it very helpful as I continue to learn how to sell TSLA options consistently without getting into trouble.. I am a work in progress. This week I experimented a little with sharing my trades, and some of the thoughts that went along with them. May try to continue doing so as a way to stay accountable to myself.. we will see how it goes. Appreciate all the other contributors here
 
I have been on this board for a couple years and have found it very helpful as I continue to learn how to sell TSLA options consistently without getting into trouble.. I am a work in progress. This week I experimented a little with sharing my trades, and some of the thoughts that went along with them. May try to continue doing so as a way to stay accountable to myself.. we will see how it goes. Appreciate all the other contributors here

Thank you. I found your posts helpful and informed.
Good luck on your quest and keep sharing!
 
Europe numbers not looking great - we'll know better in a couple of weeks when May numbers start coming in... don't forget we got a big price cut on M3Y in Norway this last week which has not been reported in the mainstream media, I expect other European countries to follow

I have no negative bias, I'm a long term Tesla bull, but I had an epiphany and am now able to see things a bit clearer than before

And I have a LOT of LEAPS, much more favourable for me if the SP pop hard than drops hard, just trying to keep things real
Yes Europe is the only territory that’s tracking worse than Q1, but it’s the smallest of the 3 markets. The other 2, larger territories are showing material better numbers than Q1.

Things like the Norway price cuts are immaterial because their small %..especially if prices are stable in the bigger markets, which they are.

It’s not all flowers and roses, especially on the YoY comparison. Q2 will absolutely be material down from last year. But there are some pretty noticeable signs and bits of data that show Q2 well ahead of Q1.
 
I have been on this board for a couple years and have found it very helpful as I continue to learn how to sell TSLA options consistently without getting into trouble.. I am a work in progress. This week I experimented a little with sharing my trades, and some of the thoughts that went along with them. May try to continue doing so as a way to stay accountable to myself.. we will see how it goes. Appreciate all the other contributors here
no matter how 100% sure you are about your bet, keep it small

THAT IS ADVICE!

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Europe numbers not looking great - we'll know better in a couple of weeks when May numbers start coming in... don't forget we got a big price cut on M3Y in Norway this last week which has not been reported in the mainstream media, I expect other European countries to follow

I have no negative bias, I'm a long term Tesla bull, but I had an epiphany and am now able to see things a bit clearer than before

And I have a LOT of LEAPS, much more favourable for me if the SP pop hard than drops hard, just trying to keep things real

Got to layoff on those Magic Mushroom….
 
That's sad. Each one of us here has made some losses- some more then others.

For those that are new please take the lesson on page 1 posted by adiggs.
For those that want to play it safe, IMO Yoona's plays are one of the safest. Search Yoona. Lot of graph, embedded learning materials, and play by play.
For those that want to end up looking like me....don't bother.

Be safe out there. At the end this is just a big Casino and all take to undo all the goods are just 1 big greedy mistake.
 
OT: My son got accepted into McGill so I'll be in Montreal mid-August @Yoona @OrthoSurg and others, in case anyone fancies meeting up...?
I’m gone 1 month during July for a road trip in Montana visiting Yellowstone with the kids so what does it mean? I’m on call 24/7 half of the month of August! On call from the 5 to 11 and from the 26th to the 31st just before leaving 2 weeks in the Pyrenees the 2 first weeks of September.

But from the 12th to 25th any day finishing in Y if fine with me too. I work from 7AM to 5PM during the day at the OR or clinic but I’m free for a light Belgian beer after.
 
I’m gone 1 month during July for a road trip in Montana visiting Yellowstone with the kids so what does it mean? I’m on call 24/7 half of the month of August! On call from the 5 to 11 and from the 26th to the 31st just before leaving 2 weeks in the Pyrenees the 2 first weeks of September.

But from the 12th to 25th any day finishing in Y if fine with me too. I work from 7AM to 5PM during the day at the OR or clinic but I’m free for a light Belgian beer after.
Splendid, will shift to PM's and see if we can hook up together with @Yoona