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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
3 Days of Theta... that can add up!!
... and if the Stock Price likely pops a little Tuesday AM, then I might be better to sell the PUTs I just bought at a slight loss now and buy back Tuesday AM on a little pop.
Thanks for the hunch, @dl003 ! Three days of Theta looks like a sure thing, so I'm gong to bail on today's trades.
... and if the Stock Price likely pops a little Tuesday AM, then I might be better to sell the PUTs I just bought at a slight loss now and buy back Tuesday AM on a little pop.
Thanks for the hunch, @dl003 ! Three days of Theta looks like a sure thing, so I'm gong to bail on today's trades.
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It's just a hunch. My put spread is now in the red but that's expected. Expect to buy more next week.
Still ruminating over my -c170's, in the meantime taking sustenance with a 6-pack of La Chouffe and watching the markets beginning to pull back a bit...
I am of the strong opinion that TSLA is way overpriced at 180 and Q2 P&D will be worse than Q1, so I'm included to just roll the -c170's for the moment and pocket the extra $2-3k
I am of the strong opinion that TSLA is way overpriced at 180 and Q2 P&D will be worse than Q1, so I'm included to just roll the -c170's for the moment and pocket the extra $2-3k
STO a handful of -C215 7/19 @3.60 (2nd roundtrip)
Curious your thoughts on selling a few -C270 3/2025 @$11.75 here (far out in time and strike)? It allows for more profit in falls than closer to the money strikes/time (see below). Considering as well the gyrations TSLA will take before it even gets close to $270, giving plenty time to BTC or roll.
-C215 7/19
-C270 3/2025
sure, if you will close it at the bottom.
No, actually the opposite.. barring some NEGATIVE geo political news - and I think the bias is to the upside for positive news - seasonal and technical patterns would indicate Tuesday should be macro and mkt green. We’ll know when EU/UK/GER open Monday.
For TSLA, not so much.
For some others, NVDA, ,AMD, MSFT, AMAT, ASML, TSC, QCOM LLY, the list goes on we could ATH in the next 14 - 20 days. Again, I’m a net -cc seller for July/Aug at this point unless the premium and strike lines up for June. July, no question about it.
TSLA, I think @dl003 has it right, $16x is going to be back and I’m still not a buyer there. TWT.
I can feel about the advantage of this strategy,but I didt fully undertand the strategy. Could you please prepare a similar Repair strategy for TSLA as an example. Also it would be nice if you could put it in writing each step for the newbies.Thanks.
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Feels like you’re letting negative bias cloud some data.
China is 15% ahead of Q1 and that’s before the 0% or $0 down incentive started.
Model Y US inventory has dropped dramatically since the .9% was announced and I’d venture to say it will remain low for June.
Model 3 refresh is finally ramping up this quarter (was told by sales manager and there were many 3’s being delivered when I was there) and Cybertruck will be much higher than Q1.
I actually had a chance to talk to a sales manager when I took my wife in to test drive the Y before we placed the .9% order and got some details on how Tesla is doing this. They have 5 banks that they’re working with and they essentially play the banks off of each other to get the lowest rate per individual and their credit score and then cover the difference. Most of the time the rate they’re getting from the bank is in the 3-5% area and then Tesla is covering the difference. Tesla is using their cash balance to cover the difference, not using the method of putting cost of the difference in cogs. So I expect margins to actually rebound materially and even though Tesla’s free cash flow will be impacted, it’s offset by Tesla burning down their inventory buildup from Q1.
Overall I think Q2 numbers both in P/D and in earnings will be much better than people expect
Are you closing your 6/21 SPY puts for now? I'm flat (took profit yesterday .90 to 1.60) and wondering if to put them on again (+P505 6/21 @1.00)
Truly fascinating to watch TSLA price action today, as it became obvious that price was being drawn up to $180 but the market did not want to see it cross, at least yet. Machines at work..
No problemo. While I have you attention can you clarify what you mean re the 6/21 options posture you posted earlier, and what you interpret for the 2-3 weeks before 6/21? Ty
to be honest, I think these put spreads are the easier trade atm.
My mid term bias is UP, to 250. I know there's nothing on the horizon that can lift it, but I don't make the rule. The falling wedge demands 250 to be tested before another big drop. The fact that most people feel bearish makes it dangerous. I've been at this long enough to know, the moment it trades over 200, 210, nobody and I mean nobody will think about P&D or ER anymore. FOMO is no joke.
So right now I'm just going to buy puts at resistance. If I lose, I'll lose small. The potential for profit is high, as I believe, in order to get up to 250, we need to trap a sufficient number of bears before some news comes out and it squeezes. To trap bear, we need to drop hard, and this seems like a very good platform for a drop. I'm still selling calls, don't get me wrong, but I don't want to sweat over calls if the dead cat has more legs than I anticipated. If it goes up to 185 next week, I want to keep my account as clean as possible in order to add more puts as planned. This is the opposite of being the house now. Directional play based on what I'm seeing is better for the time being.
Ultimately, I want to see this on the chart the week of 6/7 - 6/14 before I call the bottom. This is the 4H timeframe. Last time this happened on the 2H, we got a $20 bounce. The 4H should give a much bigger bounce or even start the 2nd leg up -> 250.
Because my mid term read is 250, I don't want to short naked calls too heavily here. TSLA is known to humble traders, especially those who think their chart can't be wrong.
"And then he woke up and realised it had all been a dream..."I think you're replying to the wrong question, TSLA aint at $1,054
OK, rolled 25c -c270 to next week for +$1...
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